Canadian by-elections

[cp]

Ottawa-Vanier's an interesting riding - quite large too. For one thing, it encompasses very disparate parts of the city. The bulge southwards is to a small area called 'Blackburn Hamlet' (where I used to live). It's quite lower/working class and very ethnically diverse. It's also solid Liberal country. During the last 4 elections it's been a sea of Red, with the occasional NDP sign in front of the nicer houses (I have no stats for this, it's just a personal observation).

Conversely, Ottawa-Vanier also includes Rockcliffe Park, a formally-separate village that has the highest property values in the city, and possibly the country. It's home to countless ambassadorial residences, private schools, and monocle-smiths. Strangely, this is also solid Liberal country. I think it's the old money that tends to gravitate to the movers and shakers, which have long been the Liberals.

EarlAW has mentioned Sandy Hill and Lowertown, which are trendy and working-class, respectively. Their votes do lean towards the NDP, but never in sufficient numbers to give the NDP a running chance.

The rest of the riding is lower-to-middle class suburbs and apartment buildings. It's less ethnically diverse than most other parts of the city but linguistically fragmented between anglos and francophone/allophones. The anglo population is probably the source of most of the Conservative support. Liberals, however, have managed to keep a firm lock on the vote here by virtue of the francophone candidates they consistently run. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Blackburn Hamlet is in Ottawa-Orleans. That bulge is Pine View.

[cp]

so it is. My mistake.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some other corrections:

Ottawa-Vanier's not really that big. It only has 100,000 people, which is small for an urban riding, and its population is declining.

Also, Rockcliffe Park is very Conservative. Just check the results! Also, another heavily Conservative area is Beacon Hill in Gloucester.

[Hash]

Some other corrections:

Ottawa-Vanier's not really that big. It only has 100,000 people, which is small for an urban riding, and its population is declining.

Also, Rockcliffe Park is very Conservative. Just check the results! Also, another heavily Conservative area is Beacon Hill in Gloucester.

Beacon Hill is heavily Conservative, that's where my school is. Judging by the houses there, it can be explained. Am I right?

[Hatman 🍁]

Some other corrections:

Ottawa-Vanier's not really that big. It only has 100,000 people, which is small for an urban riding, and its population is declining.

Also, Rockcliffe Park is very Conservative. Just check the results! Also, another heavily Conservative area is Beacon Hill in Gloucester.

Beacon Hill is heavily Conservative, that's where my school is. Judging by the houses there, it can be explained. Am I right?

Well, yeah. It is very suburban. Can't say I know what you're talking about though, since I don't know why I would want to go to Beacon Hill!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any news?

[Verily]

Not a peep of "real" news, though I keep hearing anecdotal evidence that the NDP continues to dominate the campaign in Outremont. (Whether this will translate into votes or not is something else.)

No one really cares about Roberval or St-Hyacinthe, which is probably bad for the Conservatives in Roberval.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not a peep of "real" news, though I keep hearing anecdotal evidence that the NDP continues to dominate the campaign. (Whether this will translate into votes or not is something else.)

Tony Lit is heading for a landslide!!!!11

[Verily]

Not a peep of "real" news, though I keep hearing anecdotal evidence that the NDP continues to dominate the campaign. (Whether this will translate into votes or not is something else.)

Tony Lit is heading for a landslide!!!!11

LOL, well, I think it's safe to say that the NDP will at least manage second place. Though it would be quite humiliating for them if they didn't.

Layton, McDonough and Broadbent were all campaigning in Outremont over the weekend; no current or former leaders of other parties have shown their faces. (Though this shouldn't be a surprise; Chretien, Martin or Dion would just energize strategic votes for the NDP, and the Bloc is ignoring Outremont and focusing on holding its own in Roberval.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting poll. Jack Layton is the 9th most popular politician in Quebec while Mulcair is 11th. Meanwhile Dion 22nd and Harper 13th.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=1be79ebd-296d-4e40-938e-8f79dfdf2edb
 

[Verily]

There really are the makings of an orange tidal wave in Quebec right now. The irony of a right-wing party breaking in at the provincial level and a left-wing party breaking in on the federal level would be all too typical.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Conservative candidate

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[Hash]

Lulz, idiot. Is this the Conservative candidate in Outremont?

[Hash]

The candidates

Outremont:

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon   
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson   
New Democrat Thomas Mulcair   
Conservative Gilles Duguay   
Green François Pilon   
Canadian Action Alexandre Amirizian   
Neorhino.ca François Yo Gourd   
Independent Romain Angeles   
Independent Mahmood Raza Baig   
Independent Jocelyne Leduc   
Independent Régent Millette   
Independent John C. Turmel

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot:

Conservative Party Bernard Barré   
Liberal Party Jean Caumartin   
New Democratic Party Brigitte Sansoucy   
Canadian Action Party Michel St-Onge   
Green Party Jacques Tétreault   
Bloc Québécois Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac   
Neorhino.ca Christian Willie Vanasse

Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean

Green Party Jean-Luc Boily   
Liberal Party Louise Boulanger   
New Democratic Party Éric Dubois   
Bloc Québécois Céline Houde   
Conservative Party Denis Lebel

[cp]

Indeed it is. I asked the reporter about the interview when I was visiting the Trib office this week and asked him what happened. Apparently they covered many other issues in the interview, which took about 20 minutes, but almost every answer was the textbook Conservative turn-and-spin, i.e. answering the question in the form of a criticism of the Liberals. After he pressed on the SSM issue, Duguay got flustered, angry, and then claimed he had to leave.

Brilliant journalism if I've ever seen it.

[Verily]

Too bad it wasn't the Conservative candidate in Roberval, where they actually stand a chance.

[Hatman 🍁]

OMG POLLZ!

Outremont:
NDP: 38
LPC: 32
BQ: 14
Verts: 8
CPC: 7
Oth: 1


Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean:
CPC: 43
BQ: 37
LPC: 12
NDP: 4
Verts: 4


St-Hyacinthe-Bagot:
BQ: 49
CPC: 32
NDP: 7
Verts: 6
LPC: 5

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20070914/CPSOLEIL/70913236/6584/CPSOLEIL

[Verily]

Too bad about Roberval, but polls of individual ridings are notoriously poor.

[Hatman 🍁]

Too bad about Roberval, but polls of individual ridings are notoriously poor.

1000 sample size is pretty good, I would say. I am happy about Roberval, personally. I would rather a Con than a separatist.  Don't want to be too hard on the separatists though, they are why we are winning in Outremont!

[Hash]

Good. I love seeing the Greens driving the Outremont Conservatives into irrelevance and the Greens driving Liberals into irrelevance in St-Hyacinthe-Bagot.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm disappointed in seeing the NDP behind in Roberval, but looks like we're driving them into irrelevance as well.

[Verily]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal? Clearly most of Quebec, Montreal especially, is left-leaning and might be inclined to support the NDP. Could we see many of the Montreal ridings where the Liberals normally win 60-80% of the vote suddenly become Liberal-NDP battlegrounds once the NDP can present itself as a viable alternative in Quebec?

[Hatman 🍁]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal? Clearly most of Quebec, Montreal especially, is left-leaning and might be inclined to support the NDP. Could we see many of the Montreal ridings where the Liberals normally win 60-80% of the vote suddenly become Liberal-NDP battlegrounds once the NDP can present itself as a viable alternative in Quebec?

Most of the support the NDP will be getting in Outremont is actually coming from the Bloc. The Liberals are polling at the same numbers they were last time. If the Bloc evaporates in Quebec, one might assume that the NDP could pick up ridings like Laurier. However, to be honest Outremont is the only riding in Quebec the NDP could or can win in Quebec. Their second best chance isn't even in the Montreal area- it's Hull-Aylmer. I expect a lot of second place finishes, many of them distant, but a close race in Hull where Pierre Ducasse is running (the NDP's Quebec lieutennant before Mulcair)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal?

Who knows? If it happens (and, while I'd love it to, I still can't quite... you know...) then the precedents don't really point in any direction; while the last NDP breakthrough into Quebec came to nothing (less than nothing really), the seperatist breakthrough into federal politics was heralded by Duceppe's by-election victory (as an Independent o/c) later in the year (or was it early in the next year? Can't quite remember).
It really depends whether or not an NDP win in Outremont would be reflective of a wider swing in Quebec, or the result of local factors.

Btw, if the Liberals do manage to lose Outremont, how long will Dion have left?