Random experiments with PR in local elections

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Been thinking about doing this for a while. Anyway, the main system used will be multi-seat constituencies (with three members being the absolute minimum number of seats per ward, and a minimum of four being the usual minimum. If that makes any sense whatsoever) and the seats worked out with d'hondt. In an attempt to semi-fake the effects of STV, a list of "winning" candidates will also be produced, based on raw votes polled by each individual candidate.
Other experiments will also be done at some point.

First thing is the results of the 2005 Shropshire County Council elections in the Shrewsbury town divisions. Might do everywhere at some point, but there are problems with unopposed returns, major parties not running full slates and so on. Something can probably be fiddled at some point though.
I've not bothered adding in the figures for others. * means the candidate was elected via fptp in real life.

Shrewsbury East (6 seats)

Labour  45.2%   3 seats
LDems:  26.3%   2 seats
Tories: 26.0%   1 seat

Members Elected: Joyce Allaway* (Lab), Jon Tandy* (Lab), Shirley Sambrook* (Lab), Miles Kenny* (LDem), Tony Durnell (LDem), Bryan Littlejohns (Con)

Shrewsbury West (5 seats)

Tories: 39.9%   2 seats
LDems:  29.9%   2 seats
Labour: 29.0%   1 seat

Members Elected: Michael Owen* (Con), George Richey* (Con), Anne Chebsey* (LDem), Alison Lucas (LDem), Bill Morris (Lab)

East is made up from the following divisions: Belle Vue, Castlefields & Ditherington, Monkmoor, Sundorne, Sutton & Reabrook, Underdale
West is made up from the following divisions: Bagley, Copthorne, Harlescott, Meole Brace, Porthill

All East divisions were Labour (except for Underdale), all West divisions were Tory (except for Porthill). Harlescott would have probably voted Labour (as it did in the General Election) were it not for the personal vote of the Tory candidate.

[Rural Radical]

Been thinking about doing this for a while. Anyway, the main system used will be multi-seat constituencies (with three members being the absolute minimum number of seats per ward, and a minimum of four being the usual minimum. If that makes any sense whatsoever) and the seats worked out with d'hondt. In an attempt to semi-fake the effects of STV, a list of "winning" candidates will also be produced, based on raw votes polled by each individual candidate.
Other experiments will also be done at some point.

First thing is the results of the 2005 Shropshire County Council elections in the Shrewsbury town divisions. Might do everywhere at some point, but there are problems with unopposed returns, major parties not running full slates and so on. Something can probably be fiddled at some point though.
I've not bothered adding in the figures for others. * means the candidate was elected via fptp in real life.

Shrewsbury East (6 seats)

Labour  45.2%   3 seats
LDems:  26.3%   2 seats
Tories: 26.0%   1 seat

Members Elected: Joyce Allaway* (Lab), Jon Tandy* (Lab), Shirley Sambrook* (Lab), Miles Kenny* (LDem), Tony Durnell (LDem), Bryan Littlejohns (Con)

Shrewsbury West (5 seats)

Tories: 39.9%   2 seats
LDems:  29.9%   2 seats
Labour: 29.0%   1 seat

Members Elected: Michael Owen* (Con), George Richey* (Con), Anne Chebsey* (LDem), Alison Lucas (LDem), Bill Morris (Lab)

East is made up from the following divisions: Belle Vue, Castlefields & Ditherington, Monkmoor, Sundorne, Sutton & Reabrook, Underdale
West is made up from the following divisions: Bagley, Copthorne, Harlescott, Meole Brace, Porthill

All East divisions were Labour (except for Underdale), all West divisions were Tory (except for Porthill). Harlescott would have probably voted Labour (as it did in the General Election) were it not for the personal vote of the Tory candidate.

Well done.

Have you done the party candidayes on a list system?

I would like to see North Shropshire on this system.

[Harry Hayfield]

Seeing as we were supposed to have PR in the locals by now (remember that promise Mr. Morgan back in 2003!), could you do a party list for Ceredigion (and probably hate me for it!)

Ceredigion 2004 Results
Number of councillors: 42
Plaid Cymru 10,198
Independents 8,613
Liberal Democrats 5,291
Llais Ceredigion 1,096
Labour 785
United Kingdom Independence Party 96
Non Party Independent 51
Green 48
Conservatives 26

[ag]

Except that, of course, under PR the vote counts would have, at best, a passing resemblance to the FPTP. 

[afleitch]

Bear in mind that STV and multi member wards gives them much more freedom in deciding how those wards should be made-up. In Scotland it wasn't a case of taking 3 or 4 existing wards and adding them together; everything was redrawn, with wards far better centred on communities. It made 'notional' results for 2003 very difficult and hence very innacurate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bear in mind that STV and multi member wards gives them much more freedom in deciding how those wards should be made-up. In Scotland it wasn't a case of taking 3 or 4 existing wards and adding them together; everything was redrawn, with wards far better centred on communities. It made 'notional' results for 2003 very difficult and hence very innacurate.

Oh, true, very true. Wards can often be drawn in quite an irritating way for this sort of thing; as I'm finding out with London at the moment. I suspect I'll end up with far too many three and nine member wards than I'd like.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have you done the party candidayes on a list system?

I would presume that someone on the Labour side would be replaced with Alan Mosley. Not sure beyond that.

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Will try, though there are the usual problems with parties not running full slates and so on. Biggest problem is the unopposed Tory in Baschurch.

[Harry Hayfield]

Am I to presume that Ceredigion isn't interesting enough? If so, which would generate interest. North Warwickshire 2007, Somerset 2005 or Tower Hamlets 1994?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seeing as we were supposed to have PR in the locals by now (remember that promise Mr. Morgan back in 2003!), could you do a party list for Ceredigion (and probably hate me for it!)

Ceredigion 2004 Results
Number of councillors: 42
Plaid Cymru 10,198 38.9%
Independents 8,613 32.8%
Liberal Democrats 5,291 20.2%
Llais Ceredigion 1,096 3.6%
Labour 785 3%
United Kingdom Independence Party 96
Non Party Independent 51
Green 48
Conservatives 26

Israel-style you mean?

Plaid 17, Indies 14, LDems 9, Llais Ceredigion 1, Labour 1

I might try to combine those figures with those from the European elections held on the same day.

Will also do Ceredigion in the way mentioned in the first post when I find the time to do so.

[Harry Hayfield]

Israel-style you mean?

Plaid 17, Indies 14, LDems 9, Llais Ceredigion 1, Labour 1

I might try to combine those figures with those from the European elections held on the same day.

Will also do Ceredigion in the way mentioned in the first post when I find the time to do so.

Which is amazing as the actual result was : Plaid 16, Ind 16, Lib Dem 9, Lab 1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thought I'd post this up for the hell of it. No results have been worked out yet... except in two cases (Queen's Park and Knightsbridge & Etc). All existing wards in Westminster have three seats.

Westminster

Queen's Park (4)

Wards: Queen's Park. An additional seat has been awarded to Queen's Park; North Paddington (one of the most deprived parts of London) has a seat less on the council than it should have and I thought I'd rectify the situation. In theory the PR ward would also include part of the current Harrow Road ward, but there's no way of faking that convincingly.
I should add that while this is clearly a political decision it is not a partisan one (for reasons that shall become clear if you keep scrolling down).

Westbourne Green (6)

Wards: Harrow Road, Westbourne

Bayswater (9)

Wards: Bayswater, Lancaster Gate, Hyde Park

Maida Vale (6)

Wards: Maida Vale, Little Venice

Regent's Park (9)

Wards: Abbey Road, Regents Park, Church Street (wasn't sure whether to put Church Street with St John's Wood or with Marylebone. It would only be a slight exaggeration to say that I flipped a coin...)

St Marylebone (6)

Wards: Bryanston & Dorset Square, Marylebone High Street

Knightsbridge & Mayfair (5)

Wards: West End, Knightsbridge & Belgravia. While North Paddington is underrepresented in real life, this area has more councillers than it should. The eliminated seat from this ward would have been a Labour one, btw (just as the seat gained by Queen's Park would be). I checked that before making my mind up.
Apologies about the dodgy name, btw.

Pimlico (9)

Wards: Churchill, Warwick, Tachbrook

Westminster (6)

Wards: St James's, Vincent Square. This ward covers most of area known as Westminster before the 19th century. There are, o/c, decent alternative names.


Kensington & Chelsea next.

[Hash]

Interesting, what are you using to get the number of councillors under PR?

I'll start some similar experiments with this but applied to other elections if you don't mind or object.

[Hash]

Interesting, what are you using to get the number of councillors under PR?

I'll start some similar experiments with this but applied to other elections if you don't mind or object.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting, what are you using to get the number of councillors under PR?

I'll start some similar experiments with this but applied to other elections if you don't mind or object.

Sure, why not

[Hash]

And how did you figure out the results? Do you have a program or just with a calculator and paper?