How much could the map realistically change if Biden drops out?

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

This being a map forum, we should not miss the opportunity to discuss this.   Which additional states (if any) could plausibly come into/drop out of contention?

Obviously the specifics would depend on the replacement nominee, so you can't really go too much into detail. But we can at least talk generalities.

My thought is that regardless of the Presidential and VP nominees, the map would probably not change that dramatically. The reason for that the map's contours too a large degree are dependent on Trump.

However, insofar as it could change, I think there is definitely more potential for it to change favorably for the Dems than unfavorably. The reason for that is that the existing coalition is primarily an anti-Trump coalition, not a pro-Biden (or pro-anyone/anything else) coalition.

So at least potentially you could add something to the current anti-Trump coalition, but would be unlikely to lose much.



In no particular order:

Ohio - I think there is some chance that if Beshear were at the top of the ticket he could make Ohio competitive, and there is a slimmer chance for Whitmer or Shapiro (but it would still be at least lean R).

Florida - A particularly strong ticket might be able to bring it into competition, but it would not be a tipping point state or anything like that regardless. It would need good appeal/turnout for both Black and Hispanic voters, and obviously to somehow not lose the Cuban vote as badly as in 2020. Not sure who if anyone in particular could do that, but I would not say it is impossible.

Texas - Similar to Florida, you would need appeal to both Black and Hispanic voters, and of course also suburban voters. Similarly not sure who if anyone in particular could do that, but I would not say it is impossible.

Iowa - I am doubtful that anyone in particular could bring it into contention, but would not entirely rule it out.

Maine 2nd Congressional District - Maybe a strong candidate with particular WWC strength could make it competitive.

I think there is some chance that if Beshear were at the top of the ticket he could make Ohio competitive, and there is a slimmer chance (but it would still be at least lean R).



On the downside, I think the only Democratic states that could potentially become competitive for Trump as a result of a bad choice of Dem nominee/VP are:

Maine at Large - A ticket that was particularly weak with WWC voters could potentially make this competitive. I think the risk of this would be fairly low, but could be a concern if Harris were on the top of the ticket.

Minnesota - A ticket that was particularly weak with WWC voters could potentially make this competitive (but the large size of Minneapolis-St. Paul limits that potential fairly well). I think the risk of this would be fairly low, but could be a concern if Harris were on the top of the ticket.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Neither Beshear nor any other Democrat is putting Ohio in play.  Trump is way too popular here.

[7,052,770]

Probably not a lot of big changes, other than getting help in home states (Cooper, Whitmer, Shapiro, Brown, Kelly, etc.)

[Steve from Lambeth]

It depends on who replaces him.

• George Clooney would flop everywhere except the most glaringly liberal states.
• Joe Neguse would run an ineffective campaign and be too stretched for resources come mid-October.
• Chris Gregoire would spend a lot of money on advertising (she's now little-known outside of WA), but might be moderate enough to clean up in some surprise states if she gets going.
• Lydia Hernandez would give Trump a run for his money in the South and Southwest in exchange for writing off the Upper Midwest.
• Danica Roem would probably surrender Arizona and Nevada but hold up well elsewhere.
• Kris Mayes would pump up the #Resist Libs as well as just about anyone other than maybe the Vindman brothers, but I'm not sure if she could pull off a win.
• Hunter Biden would lose.

[Alben Barkley]

Even with a great ticket I still think 2020 + NC is probably the most realistic ceiling due to all the polarization. Whitmer/Beshear might make Ohio closer (then again they do hate Michigan) but still would need a huge win to actually flip it. Florida I’m done expecting to ever do anything sane again, which of course could mean it does swing to the left against all odds but don’t bet on it. Texas ain’t there yet and Iowa is gone. ME-02 idk, they have Golden but I doubt anyone the Dems nominate would have the same appeal as him there.

[Tekken_Guy]

Neither Beshear nor any other Democrat is putting Ohio in play.  Trump is way too popular here.

Even if he doesn’t he could keep the state close enough to get Brown across the finish line.

(PS: I decided I won’t be on a total break but I’ll definitely limit my time here.)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It instantly goes from Trump as a 75% favorite to 50-50.

[Devils30]

A lot relative to current polling, very little compared to 2020. Whitmer could probably win all Biden 2020 + NC but Texas and Alaska likely out of reach. But MI would start as likely D and Dems would find new life fast.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Neither Beshear nor any other Democrat is putting Ohio in play.  Trump is way too popular here.

Even if he doesn’t he could keep the state close enough to get Brown across the finish line.

(PS: I decided I won’t be on a total break but I’ll definitely limit my time here.)

Beshear has no special appeal in Ohio.  He’d add nothing to any ticket.  Shapiro/Whitmer would be the best hypothetical with Biden resigning and Harris becoming a lame duck in exchange for getting out of the way.  However, this is all irrelevant since if Biden drops out then we’ll be stuck with Harris who would be a disaster.  To nominate her (or Newsom) is to cede PA, MI, and WI to Trump.  Biden can win those states while Harris can’t.  That’s all that matters here.

[Alben Barkley]

Neither Beshear nor any other Democrat is putting Ohio in play.  Trump is way too popular here.

Even if he doesn’t he could keep the state close enough to get Brown across the finish line.

(PS: I decided I won’t be on a total break but I’ll definitely limit my time here.)

Beshear has no special appeal in Ohio.  He’d add nothing to any ticket.  Shapiro/Whitmer would be the best hypothetical with Biden resigning and Harris becoming a lame duck in exchange for getting out of the way.  However, this is all irrelevant since if Biden drops out then we’ll be stuck with Harris who would be a disaster.  To nominate her (or Newsom) is to cede PA, MI, and WI to Trump.  Biden can win those states while Harris can’t.  That’s all that matters here.

Only people who are not really familiar with Andy Beshear and have never heard him speak could say something so asinine and wrong. He might not flip Ohio but the man has charisma, energy, and youth. Hell Kentucky women love him so much it makes me a bit jealous sometimes cause my wife won’t shut up about it when she sees him. He’s like a Southern JFK and would be an asset to any ticket. There’s a reason he managed to win a Trump +30 state despite being not even a Blue Dog but a pretty mainstream liberal.

Also: Lol, still sticking to the “Scranton Joe is an unstoppable juggernaut in the rust belt beloved by the WWC because he won Wisconsin by half a point” theory are we?

And I like how the fatalism has shifted from “We HAVE to have Biden” to “We HAVE to have Harris.” Why? Why can we not do what’s best? Why do we have to resign ourselves to subpar options? There is no actual good reason but resistance to change.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Neither Beshear nor any other Democrat is putting Ohio in play.  Trump is way too popular here.

Even if he doesn’t he could keep the state close enough to get Brown across the finish line.

(PS: I decided I won’t be on a total break but I’ll definitely limit my time here.)

Beshear has no special appeal in Ohio.  He’d add nothing to any ticket.  Shapiro/Whitmer would be the best hypothetical with Biden resigning and Harris becoming a lame duck in exchange for getting out of the way.  However, this is all irrelevant since if Biden drops out then we’ll be stuck with Harris who would be a disaster.  To nominate her (or Newsom) is to cede PA, MI, and WI to Trump.  Biden can win those states while Harris can’t.  That’s all that matters here.

Only people who are not really familiar with Andy Beshear and have never heard him speak could say something so asinine and wrong. He might not flip Ohio but the man has charisma, energy, and youth. Hell Kentucky women love him so much it makes me a bit jealous sometimes. He’s like a Southern JFK and would be an asset to any ticket. There’s a reason he managed to win a Trump +30 state despite being not even a Blue Dog but a pretty mainstream liberal.

I’ve heard him speak plenty of times.  He’s very charismatic and the best Governor Kentucky has had in recent history, but he brings nothing to any ticket electorally.  I get wanting your home favorite, but he has no national future.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I still think even with another candidate the 319 map is the best case scenario.

[xavier110]

We…win? lol

[wnwnwn]

Which could lose MN?...

Cori Bush?

There would be the same 7 swing states of usual.
Dems would be more favored, but unless both parties surprise us with their platforms and campaing on those surprises, the map would be the same as usual.

[Mr. Smith]

Neither Beshear nor any other Democrat is putting Ohio in play.  Trump is way too popular here.

Even if he doesn’t he could keep the state close enough to get Brown across the finish line.

(PS: I decided I won’t be on a total break but I’ll definitely limit my time here.)

Beshear has no special appeal in Ohio.  He’d add nothing to any ticket.  Shapiro/Whitmer would be the best hypothetical with Biden resigning and Harris becoming a lame duck in exchange for getting out of the way.  However, this is all irrelevant since if Biden drops out then we’ll be stuck with Harris who would be a disaster.  To nominate her (or Newsom) is to cede PA, MI, and WI to Trump.  Biden can win those states while Harris can’t.  That’s all that matters here.

Not if she keeps GA/AZ/NC in play.  She might even be able to flip the script.

And if she's done that, she's probably held MI anyway just because of Wayne County.

After all, Trump single-handedly stopped the GOP from focusing on the the tipping point state, the most reliable bellwether, and two relatively close states in favor of some Obama +5 states, some that voted for Dukakis.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think if Harris is the nominee Trump's EC advantage increases drastically. She likely would do better in the sunbelt but worse in the 3 rust belt states.

[VBM]

I think if Harris is the nominee Trump's EC advantage increases drastically. She likely would do better in the sunbelt but worse in the 3 rust belt states.

Kamala Harris was unironically a worse VP pick than Sarah Palin

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Biden is so toxic and damaged at this point that no, Kamala Harris would not do worse than him in the midwest or probably anywhere in the country!!! The only place she'd do worse in is Delaware which is still safe D in terms of result.

[MillennialModerate]

How do we do this thread and not include the actual swing states?

I think a solid ticket instantly puts the 3 blue wall states into lean Dem.

Georgia is Lean R still but closer than it was

Arizona is a straight tossup.

Nevada seems to be going the opposite way of Arizona, so Trump may still be favored here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Neither Beshear nor any other Democrat is putting Ohio in play.  Trump is way too popular here.

Even if he doesn’t he could keep the state close enough to get Brown across the finish line.

(PS: I decided I won’t be on a total break but I’ll definitely limit my time here.)

Beshear has no special appeal in Ohio.  He’d add nothing to any ticket.  Shapiro/Whitmer would be the best hypothetical with Biden resigning and Harris becoming a lame duck in exchange for getting out of the way.  However, this is all irrelevant since if Biden drops out then we’ll be stuck with Harris who would be a disaster.  To nominate her (or Newsom) is to cede PA, MI, and WI to Trump.  Biden can win those states while Harris can’t.  That’s all that matters here.

Not if she keeps GA/AZ/NC in play.  She might even be able to flip the script.

And if she's done that, she's probably held MI anyway just because of Wayne County.

After all, Trump single-handedly stopped the GOP from focusing on the the tipping point state, the most reliable bellwether, and two relatively close states in favor of some Obama +5 states, some that voted for Dukakis.

She wouldn’t win any of those states either though.

[DaleCooper]

Neither Beshear nor any other Democrat is putting Ohio in play.  Trump is way too popular here.

Even if he doesn’t he could keep the state close enough to get Brown across the finish line.

(PS: I decided I won’t be on a total break but I’ll definitely limit my time here.)

Beshear has no special appeal in Ohio.  He’d add nothing to any ticket.  Shapiro/Whitmer would be the best hypothetical with Biden resigning and Harris becoming a lame duck in exchange for getting out of the way.  However, this is all irrelevant since if Biden drops out then we’ll be stuck with Harris who would be a disaster.  To nominate her (or Newsom) is to cede PA, MI, and WI to Trump.  Biden can win those states while Harris can’t.  That’s all that matters here.

Only people who are not really familiar with Andy Beshear and have never heard him speak could say something so asinine and wrong. He might not flip Ohio but the man has charisma, energy, and youth. Hell Kentucky women love him so much it makes me a bit jealous sometimes. He’s like a Southern JFK and would be an asset to any ticket. There’s a reason he managed to win a Trump +30 state despite being not even a Blue Dog but a pretty mainstream liberal.

I’ve heard him speak plenty of times.  He’s very charismatic and the best Governor Kentucky has had in recent history, but he brings nothing to any ticket electorally.  I get wanting your home favorite, but he has no national future.

Beshear having no national future says much worse about the wretched state of the current Democratic Party primary voters than it does anything about Beshear. There's not a single Republican living that I'm aware of that could beat him in any swing state.

[JRP1994]

How do we do this thread and not include the actual swing states?

I think a solid ticket instantly puts the 3 blue wall states into lean Dem.

Georgia is Lean R still but closer than it was

Arizona is a straight tossup.

Nevada seems to be going the opposite way of Arizona, so Trump may still be favored here.

These are the states Nate Silver's model (which is the direct descendent of the FiveThirtyEight model; he retained the intellectual property) shows as being within 5 points this November:

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Anyway, Dems gain pretty much everywhere. PA is the decisive state, I believe MI/WI will stay blue and GA/AZ will vote R. NV is close but if the same candidate loses PA it's irrelevant. I think R's flip NV but I feel better about it now than I did previously and worse about AZ(though Harris will obviously fair better than Biden there)

[David Hume]

Neither Beshear nor any other Democrat is putting Ohio in play.  Trump is way too popular here.

Even if he doesn’t he could keep the state close enough to get Brown across the finish line.

(PS: I decided I won’t be on a total break but I’ll definitely limit my time here.)

Beshear has no special appeal in Ohio.  He’d add nothing to any ticket.  Shapiro/Whitmer would be the best hypothetical with Biden resigning and Harris becoming a lame duck in exchange for getting out of the way.  However, this is all irrelevant since if Biden drops out then we’ll be stuck with Harris who would be a disaster.  To nominate her (or Newsom) is to cede PA, MI, and WI to Trump.  Biden can win those states while Harris can’t.  That’s all that matters here.

Only people who are not really familiar with Andy Beshear and have never heard him speak could say something so asinine and wrong. He might not flip Ohio but the man has charisma, energy, and youth. Hell Kentucky women love him so much it makes me a bit jealous sometimes cause my wife won’t shut up about it when she sees him. He’s like a Southern JFK and would be an asset to any ticket. There’s a reason he managed to win a Trump +30 state despite being not even a Blue Dog but a pretty mainstream liberal.

Also: Lol, still sticking to the “Scranton Joe is an unstoppable juggernaut in the rust belt beloved by the WWC because he won Wisconsin by half a point” theory are we?

And I like how the fatalism has shifted from “We HAVE to have Biden” to “We HAVE to have Harris.” Why? Why can we not do what’s best? Why do we have to resign ourselves to subpar options? There is no actual good reason but resistance to change.

Beshear has at most 3 month to get his popularity in his home state nationalized, which is not going to happen.

 

[David Hume]

How do we do this thread and not include the actual swing states?

I think a solid ticket instantly puts the 3 blue wall states into lean Dem.

Georgia is Lean R still but closer than it was

Arizona is a straight tossup.

Nevada seems to be going the opposite way of Arizona, so Trump may still be favored here.

These are the states Nate Silver's model (which is the direct descendent of the FiveThirtyEight model; he retained the intellectual property) shows as being within 5 points this November:

In a map where even states like VA, ME are tossup, states like GA should be lean R.