Morning Consult: Biden+1 (post debate)

[DrScholl]

"Adults"

Plus it was conducted in less than one day. Always a fairly bad way to poll election.

As you have said so eloquently in the Trump +8 post-debate poll, polls conducted one day after a debate are bad!

Which was said in conjunction with the fact that said poll was of "adults" and not even of registered voters. Nice try though.

And if "wait one week" is your logic then why is the Leger poll accurate the Morning Consult wrong? My post didn't include arbitrary deadline.

[Crumpets]

If the last 9 years haven't taught us that being a drooling fool is a winning profile for a president, I don't know what will... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Mehmentum]

Is this really happening? Is our country so stupid that it comes back around to being sane?

New horseshoe theory just dropped.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

MC has been going between Biden and Trump by a point. This poll is nothing new.

[ajc0918]

MC has been going between Biden and Trump by a point. This poll is nothing new.

Given the debate performance, a poll showing no movement is a win for Biden...

[Spectator]

Lol I guess Democrats are as rigid as the GOP after all in backing their man

[WV222]

Same poll

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1806837383926559221

[jred]

Same poll

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1806837383926559221

And yet Dems are backing Biden at an all time high of 89% in this poll lol

They might actually be rallying

[Splash]

At an anecdotal level, this kind of makes sense to me. My apolitical sister - who voted for Biden in 2020 - already thought Biden had full blown dementia well before the debate and still planned on voting for him this year. She aghast that he's the nominee and wishes there was someone better, but will never vote for Trump.

The debate was an unmitigated disaster for the Biden and it reinforced perceptions that very well may doom his campaign, but, as a general observation, one constant since 2016 has been how much the mainstream media and pundit class has overestimated the impact of singular events on the political state of play.

[Eraserhead]

Did you ever doubt?

Heatcharger pro Biden arc?

He was a Biden guy in 2020.

[Eraserhead]

MC has been going between Biden and Trump by a point. This poll is nothing new.

Given the debate performance, a poll showing no movement is a win for Biden...

This particular poll never shows any significant movement... ever.

[wbrocks67]

Same poll

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1806837383926559221

I imagine these #s weren't that different before the debate, though. A large majority of Rs would've said so, and we've gotten plenty of polls where Ds are divided about Biden or "someone else." It's been clear for a while (since literally before 2020) that Ds would be happy with someone other than Biden since he was never their first choice. But at the same time, they seem to be rallying given the situation.

[AltWorlder]

Oh

It would be quite a development if the media telling Biden to drop out actually is one of the things that rallies Democrats to his side.

They just need to treat every defeat like the fall of Roe

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden was overrated as a candidate in 20 but the time is now to reelect him, because Trump is a great salesman but when he gets into office he isn't gonna do nothing

[kelestian]

From my anecdotal experience (Twitter feed) Trump performance was actually bad - parts of electorate that he should be aiming for are critical of ex' performance. Black Twitter is furious about "Black jobs" remark, women are not persuaded by his abort answers and pro-Palestine crowd... Well, you could imagine.

[President Johnson]

If that is true, maybe the entire conventional wisdom is out the window in this era. We always thought this only applied to Trump. Maybe it's a larger trend that goes far beyond Agent Orange. Of course, I'd take it. Biden or any Democrat just has to win.

[Ferguson97]

Maybe they find the dementia charming

[wbrocks67]

From my anecdotal experience (Twitter feed) Trump performance was actually bad - parts of electorate that he should be aiming for are critical of ex' performance. Black Twitter is furious about "Black jobs" remark, women are not persuaded by his abort answers and pro-Palestine crowd... Well, you could imagine.

This is what I saw/see as well. LIke I said in the debate thread, most my friends/acquaintances posting about the debate had bad things to say about *both* of them, especially trumps remarks. people made fun of biden being old, but it was not this overdramatic level that the press is jumping to.

[axiomsofdominion]

If either side had a late 40s candidate who was a normie they'd be killing right now. But they don't. People need to understand the baseline of this election.

The race is *currently* a tossup.

And in my opinion, just like the famous search for the "trump pivot" in 2016, the minute Biden has a high profile event, like the September debate, where he comes off great, people will stop caring about this debate. Now if he bombs the next debate and or has other big public flops, then he's probably in trouble, although he still might win because his opponent is Donald Trump.

[HisGrace]

Debates don't matter.

Don't think a debate has had any impact since 2000, before that 80. Maybe Dukakis's death penalty gaffe hurt him but he wasn't going to win anyway.

Post-debate sympathy bump 😂😂

People do tend to rally around candidates when they see an attack as unfair, which like it or not is what I think happened with Trump's conviction. Also for Clinton during his impeachment.

[philly09]

Debates don't matter.

Don't think a debate has had any impact since 2000, before that 80. Maybe Dukakis's death penalty gaffe hurt him but he wasn't going to win anyway.

Post-debate sympathy bump 😂😂

People do tend to rally around candidates when they see an attack as unfair, which like it or not is what I think happened with Trump's conviction. Also for Clinton during his impeachment.

Dukakis may have pulled even had he not made the death penalty remark. He was doing well before that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From my anecdotal experience (Twitter feed) Trump performance was actually bad - parts of electorate that he should be aiming for are critical of ex' performance. Black Twitter is furious about "Black jobs" remark, women are not persuaded by his abort answers and pro-Palestine crowd... Well, you could imagine.

Wow.
So Trump might have actually rallied the Dem base behind Biden, on net, if he did anything at all?

[HisGrace]

Debates don't matter.

Don't think a debate has had any impact since 2000, before that 80. Maybe Dukakis's death penalty gaffe hurt him but he wasn't going to win anyway.

Post-debate sympathy bump 😂😂

People do tend to rally around candidates when they see an attack as unfair, which like it or not is what I think happened with Trump's conviction. Also for Clinton during his impeachment.

Dukakis may have pulled even had he not made the death penalty remark. He was doing well before that.

Fundamentals favored Bush and Dukakis had a million other problems (Willie Horton ad, Snoopy incident)

[GAinDC]

From my anecdotal experience (Twitter feed) Trump performance was actually bad - parts of electorate that he should be aiming for are critical of ex' performance. Black Twitter is furious about "Black jobs" remark, women are not persuaded by his abort answers and pro-Palestine crowd... Well, you could imagine.

Wow.
So Trump might have actually rallied the Dem base behind Biden, on net, if he did anything at all?

Yup. That’s what I’m seeing too

[axiomsofdominion]

I'm interest to see what we have around not the upcoming Wednesday but the next one, however preliminary polls and reports seem to indicate the debate doesn't matter, as it always doesn't.