UK Election Night Discussion.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tories fall to 49.2% in Staffordshire Leftovers Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge. I'm pretty sure this means we won't see a single Tory win a majority of the vote, unless I've missed one.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

No idea how the economist still thinks the SNP gets to 13.

[axiomsofdominion]

Lib Dems got 1 seat in Wales lmao.

[Harlow]

Unless I'm missing something, I don't think the Tories get past 100.

They already have 72? …. Zero chance they don’t cross 100.

Zero chance like actual zero. Not Georgia Zero

Are the last to be called usually favored Tory?

Typically, yes, due to rural constituencies having longer travel times to consolidate ballot boxes (at least one of the reasons).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The expected hilariously low winning share in Brecon
Lib Dem 29.5% (+0.2)
Tory 26.3% (−20.3)
Lab 21.4% (+3.9)
Reform 14.1% (+12.2)

[Compuzled_One]

No idea how the economist still thinks the SNP gets to 13.

What's their likely number? I can't imagine it's stuck at four, right?

[Joe Kakistocracy]

Click on the image to embiggen:

[Oryxslayer]

Unless I'm missing something, I don't think the Tories get past 100.

They already have 72? …. Zero chance they don’t cross 100.

Zero chance like actual zero. Not Georgia Zero

Are the last to be called usually favored Tory?

Again, the centralized counts and declarations mean the rural seats are usually slower. Usually the Tories have more seats at this time cause of the commuter towns, but the Lib-Dems took them. A solid chunk of the remaining seats are actually safe blue ones even in the worst MRPs. maybe not 150 good though. Depends on Scotland.

[#UnbanTender]

Alliance loses North Down to a Unionist Independent. 7k majority.

[Migrant Crime]

An independent Unionist (Alex Easton - ex DUP) picked up North Down from Alliance.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

From Cornwall:
Camborne and Redruth
Party   Candidate   Votes   % (pt change)
Lab Perran Moon   19,360   40.5 (+6.3)
Con Connor Donnithorne   11,554   24.2 (-29.1)
Reform Roger Tarrant   8,952   18.7 (-)
Lib Dem Thalia Marrington 4,113   8.6 (+0.1)
Green Catherine Hayes   2,840   5.9 (+3.2)
The LDs at less than 9% in a Cornwall constituency is crazy.

[Compuzled_One]

Unless I'm missing something, I don't think the Tories get past 100.

They already have 72? …. Zero chance they don’t cross 100.

Zero chance like actual zero. Not Georgia Zero

Are the last to be called usually favored Tory?

Typically, yes, due to rural constituencies having longer travel times to consolidate ballot boxes (at least one of the reasons).

Okay then, I think they likely squeak past. Don't think they hit 130 though.

[Harlow]

The expected hilariously low winning share in Brecon
Lib Dem 29.5% (+0.2)
Tory 26.3% (−20.3)
Lab 21.4% (+3.9)
Reform 14.1% (+12.2)

Montgomeryshire was won by Labour with 0.1% lower with a massive pile-up, 5 parties winning at least 10% of the vote.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tories cling onto Tatton with a majority slashed to 1,133. The ghosts of Martin Bell return as outright Labour voters!

[axiomsofdominion]

Tory seats starting to pour in now.

[Torrain]

Glenrothes and Mid Fife goes Labour.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Unless I'm missing something, I don't think the Tories get past 100.

They already have 72? …. Zero chance they don’t cross 100.

Zero chance like actual zero. Not Georgia Zero

Are the last to be called usually favored Tory?

Typically, yes, due to rural constituencies having longer travel times to consolidate ballot boxes (at least one of the reasons).

Okay then, I think they likely squeak past. Don't think they hit 130 though.

A lot of it will come down to the rural South (SW and SE). How many seats do the LDs take there?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Not great that there are going to be fifth-column supporters of a genocidal terrorist organization, who have expressly stated their desire to wipe out all Jews, in Commons.

The DUP?

[Philly D.]

Tories fall to 4th place in Mid Sussex.

[#UnbanTender]

CONSERVATIVE -41% IN MID SUSSEX. 32% SWING TO LIB DEMS.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

Not great that there are going to be fifth-column supporters of a genocidal terrorist organization, who have expressly stated their desire to wipe out all Jews, in Commons.

The DUP?

The DUP is probably the least anti-Semitic party in the House of Commons not in ideology but in terms of actual risk to the Jewish people.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

(Some of) the polling was also wrong in that the Conservatives have easily come in second in the popular vote.

[Calgacus]

Yeah, it looks like the Lib Dems are likely to overperform at the expense of the Tories

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Not great that there are going to be fifth-column supporters of a genocidal terrorist organization, who have expressly stated their desire to wipe out all Jews, in Commons.

Actual evidence of any of these people being fifth columnists; and evidence not "being pro-palestine" or opposing Israeli Apartheid.

[MillennialModerate]

Yeah, it looks like the Lib Dems are likely to overperform at the expense of the Tories

overperform the exit poll?