Does Nevada cast more total votes than 2020?

[ProgressiveModerate]

In every Presidential election since 1968, Nevada has cast more votes for President than the previous cycle. Raw votes have gone up even when turnout has gone down nationally like 2008-->2012.

Looking at recent raw vote totals:

2004 Pres: 830k
2008 Pres: 968k
2012 Pres: 1.015 mil
2016 Pres: 1.125 mil
2020 Pres: 1.405 mil

The continuous increase in raw votes seems to be a combination of strong population growth and in recent cycles increased investment. In 2024, there's a strong case Nevada's vote total will go up again even if turnout is down nationally thanks to big investment for both the competitive Presidential and Senate elections in the state. Also worth considering NV cast more votes for 2022 Sen than 2018 Sen despite 2022 generally being lower turnout than 2018.

Even though this question may seem a little arbitrary, it can definitely matter in a close Nevada election, who are these new people joining the electorate and who do they help on net (or conversely who is leaving the electorate).

[ProgressiveModerate]

The answer is yes - nearly 100k more votes! Infact despite losing the state Harris still got more votes than Biden 2020 here. Wonder if it'll continue the streak in 2028

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Nearly 1/3 of Trump's Nevada voters didn't cast a ballot for him in 2016 which is insane to think about.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nearly 1/3 of Trump's Nevada voters didn't cast a ballot for him in 2016 which is insane to think about.

It’s even higher when you factor in age turnover, migration, and vote flipping around the margins. Probably close to 40% of Nevadans who cast a vote for Trump this cycle didn’t do so in 2016 (at least in NV).

In general the Southwest states have seen insane vote total jumps these past 2 decades. Like on TX Harris beating Trump’s 2016 vote total even though she lost by 14% and he won by 9% (not to mention Trump got nearly 2 million more votes than he did in 2016).

Arizona, Utah, and Idaho are also wild.

[CentristRepublican]

Nearly 1/3 of Trump's Nevada voters didn't cast a ballot for him in 2016 which is insane to think about.

It’s even higher when you factor in age turnover, migration, and vote flipping around the margins. Probably close to 40% of Nevadans who cast a vote for Trump this cycle didn’t do so in 2016 (at least in NV).

In general the Southwest states have seen insane vote total jumps these past 2 decades. Like on TX Harris beating Trump’s 2016 vote total even though she lost by 14% and he won by 9% (not to mention Trump got nearly 2 million more votes than he did in 2016).

Arizona, Utah, and Idaho are also wild.

Not really surprising, but Harris won well over twice as many votes as Obama 2012 in UT. Perhaps more impressively, if you did a head-to-head between Harris 2024 and some past GOP performances:

2016: 52.2-47.8% Harris
2012: 56.2-43.8% Romney (kinda impressive that this is still quite a bit better than Biden's and Harris' irl performances)
2008: 51.4-48.6% McCain
2004: 54.1-45.9% Bush (the "swing" from 2000-2004 is pretty wild)
2000: 52.2-47.8% Harris

Given that Trump 2016 won the same # of votes as Bush 2000, it's worth noting that Dem votes in this time frame increased more than 50% (and have increased by 82% more SINCE 2016).