6/25 Primaries Discussion (CO, UT, NY)

[axiomsofdominion]

We are starting to see a swing back to Latimer. Obviously trendlines aren't magic but still. Be interesting. Looks like the south of WC is doing well for Bowman.

[dspNY]

The Westchester numbers so far are better for Bowman than I would expect.   I wonder if the count in Westchester so far has a Southern bias.

This is a little slow to update but here is a precinct map:

NY-16 map

Bowman absolutely got his doors blown off in Scarsdale, Mamaroneck, Larchmont, Rye, and all of central Westchester County except for Greenburgh. Latimer probably even won White Plains too. Bowman won most of Yonkers and all of Mount Vernon. New Rochelle is split north and south. Where New Rochelle High School is and north is where Bowman got his doors blown off. South of New Rochelle High School (downtown New Ro closer to the LI Sound), Bowman did better

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Glad Dave Williams lost in Colorado Springs, even though we could've flipped that district with him as the nominee. He is probably further right-wing than MTG.

That seat probably would have still gone R with him as the nominee, so it wasn't worth the risk. Also, we can probably start making a serious play against Crank as soon as later this decade. Maybe even 2026 in a Trump midterm.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Very fun to see S019 recommend personal attacks against me. Can't wait for the Suburban NJ Conservative redebut in 2028!

Stop being whiny, don’t take the comments of internet weirdos so seriously they don’t do you any actual harm and if they’re harming your psyche you need to take a long look in the mirror and log off.

I don't whine. I just treat people the way they want to be treated. Do you have anything else to add to the discussion or are you just gonna be an asshole for no reason?

[Spectator]

A whole lot of losses for Trump endorsees tonight. He doesn’t have as much of a hold over the party as he would probably like.

I think his endorsements get kore prominence in gubernatorial and Senate races. House races are easier to fly under the radar. Make no mistake—he has an iron grip on the party. Otherwise Boebert wouldn’t win as a total carpetbagger.

[axiomsofdominion]

The Westchester numbers so far are better for Bowman than I would expect.   I wonder if the count in Westchester so far has a Southern bias.

This is a little slow to update but here is a precinct map:

NY-16 map

Bowman absolutely got his doors blown off in Scarsdale, Mamaroneck, Larchmont, Rye, and all of central Westchester County except for Greenburgh. Latimer probably even won White Plains too. Bowman won most of Yonkers and all of Mount Vernon. New Rochelle is split north and south. Where New Rochelle High School is and north is where Bowman got his doors blown off. South of New Rochelle High School (downtown New Ro closer to the LI Sound), Bowman did better

I really wish we had more % vote in estimates.

[Nyvin]

If Bowman didn't pull the fire alarm he'd be winning.

I say that only half-jokingly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Everyone keep it civil, please.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Fat_DTEA/status/1805776201031491788

[Minnesota Mike]

John Avlon is getting 70% of the vote in NY-01. I haven't paid a whole lot of attention to this race but wasn't it supposed to be closer?

[Tekken_Guy]

The CO establishment might be emboldened to take out Boebert in 2026. She looks like she’ll only get low 40s and the establishment swept everything else.

[heatcharger]

Looks like we’re seeing party disunity in Colorado and New York.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Everyone keep it civil, please.

Not my fault centrists can't defend their candidate without making personal attacks ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Also funny how the Jewish posters who actually are concerned with anti-Semitism don't have to resort to sh*t-slinging to defend Latimer! I may disagree with people like Ray and X but unlike the center I at least treat them like human beings

[Ferguson97]

Pleasantly surprised by Bowman’s loss.

[wnwnwn]

Dolan has win the precints were Trump performed best in 2020....

Conservatives registered as democrats or what?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Frisch's odds of winning go down significantly with Hurd, but like in CO-05, it wasn't worth the risk of electing Ron Hanks.

[dspNY]

Dolan has win the precints were Trump performed best in 2020....

Conservatives registered as democrats or what?

Throggs Neck doing Throggs Neck things

[dspNY]

Latimer's margin is 11.6% with 65% of the vote in. I'm interested in seeing whether the result matches the polls

[axiomsofdominion]

Latimer's margin is 11.6% with 65% of the vote in. I'm interested in seeing whether the result matches the polls

Didn't we only have like 1 poll?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Very sad to see racism and rape win out here.

…Rape?

You know I don’t even want to know what deranged conspiracy theories are in your head.

True racism, i.e. antisemitism, lost tonight. And that’s a very good thing unless you’re a Nazi.

Sorry. Not rape. Sexual assault. To our knowledge Cuomo's not a rapist but I wouldn't be surprised.

Forgive me for believing someone who is pro-sexual assault shouldn't have a seat in Congress. I'm not going to get into a dick-measuring contest about who's the bigger bigot because who really gives a sh*t anyway? Racists have no place in the party and it's incredibly shameful to see so many people support such a trash human being to own the Bros.

Bowman is complete trash and was a literal Hamas apologist

[Gracile]

AOC is cruising to renomination with 82% of the primary vote as of now (not that she was ever in danger, but still).

[wnwnwn]

What are the posibilities of Avlon in the general?

[dspNY]

What are the posibilities of Avlon in the general?

Winnable but I'd rate it Lean R

[Utah Neolib]

https://electionresults.utah.gov/results/public/utah/elections/primary06252024
Not sure anyone other than me cares but here’s the Utah results website

[dspNY]

Latimer's margin is 11.6% with 65% of the vote in. I'm interested in seeing whether the result matches the polls

Didn't we only have like 1 poll?

There were 2

Mellman Group had Latimer winning 52-35
Emerson had Latimer winning 48-31

Interestingly, Latimer made a reference to his internal polling where he said he had about a 10 point lead