UK Politics: Labor Landslide or Center-Left Opposition?

[Sorenroy]

With just 10 days left to go before the UK's elections, it looks increasingly likely that Labor will win the largest parliamentary majority since the Great Depression. The Tories, on the other hand, are looking at potentially the worst performance of any major party since the end of the 18th century.

But we can go further. At this point, neither of these scenarios are likely to happen, but both are still possible given potential errors in polling, strategic voting, and more.



Scenario One: Labor wins over 475 seats, the largest victory of any party since at least 1931. However, the Conservative triage is successful and the Tory's are able to hold together enough seats to become the official opposition, setting themselves up to capitalize on the inevitable voter fatigue that faces all party's in power as they become magnets for voter dissatisfaction and are seen as the obstacles to change.

Scenario Two: Labor wins less than 425 seats in a commanding victory only dampened by the high hopes the party had going into election night. However, the Tories collapse, with Reform pressing from their right and strategic voting propelling the Liberal Democrats into second place. The left not only dominates government, but the official opposition, forcing the Conservatives to decide on their future role in UK politics and how they will rebuild moving forward.



I feel like there are merits to both of these scenarios, both from a Progressive and Conservative worldview. A 300 seat majority is enough to make truly sweeping changes in British politics, and - even if Conservatives are the official opposition - a defeat on this scale would likely still force a reckoning for the British right. However, a result like this is also less likely to fundamentally change UK politics long term. Both of these scenarios are likely to see some level of Conservative/Reform consolidation, and without a change to the electoral processes, that means that when Conservatives do eventually win back a majority, they will do so having incorporated at least some of the beliefs of the Reform movement.

For the second scenario, Liberal Democrats becoming the official opposition means shifting the overtone window solidly to the left. Even with less than a 200 seat victory, Labor will still have an overwhelming mandate and ability to enact basically whatever they want. And, having the two largest parties be on the left creates a very different political environment when it comes to the discussion of British politics. However, its very difficult to see the Conservatives doing anything but acquiescing to Reform for their best shot going forward. Ultimately, a LibDem opposition could just be a blip on the map of UK politics, or could even result in the left fracturing similarly to what's happening now with the Conservatives and Reform. There is some world where the Liberal Democrats become the second of the UK's two major parties, with Conservatives taking the role of the third national option, but that's a hard future to envision.


Personally (and perhaps because as a US resident this all is more of an interesting abstract to my everyday life), I'd rather see scenario two. Especially if the Conservatives end up getting the second most votes this cycle but coming in third (or worse) by number of seats and Labor starts to see Liberal Democrat support threaten some of its seats, I could see this election becoming the impetus for true, bipartisan electoral reform. The Conservatives don't want to have another election where strategic voting keeps them out of office and Labor doesn't want to face an election where a popular LibDem party threatens to split the vote and hand Conservatives a win off of nationally narrowly lost seats.

[K.W.R.A.E. 8647]

Almost certainly, regardless of what happens, there is going to be some kind of Reform-Conservative agreement that would include Farage in leadership. With polling showing the two parties combined within striking distance or even tying Labour, the Conservatives will not see any other viable choice.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

The landslide

[Don't Tread on Me]

I have a feeling that it could be closer to a repeat of the Canadian Torie disaster of ‘93. While they’ve improved slightly from their lowest point, I still voted for the 2nd option.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have a feeling that it could be closer to a repeat of the Canadian Torie disaster of ‘93. While they’ve improved slightly from their lowest point, I still voted for the 2nd option.

The main difference between 93 Canada and 24 UK is that the reform party in Canada unlike reform UK had it support concentrated in a particular area of the country . That is extremely helpful in an FPTP system and it was also catastrophic for the PC’s as their core base was also in the West which led to the PC’s crashing completely.

[C r a b c a k e]

Yes, to me it's far more important than Conservatives (and their satellite Reform) lose badly more than Starmer gets an assad style mandate.

[President Johnson]

Landslide and Tory opposition. I think the main opposition to a center-left government should be conservative and not also center-left and certainly not far-right (although the Tories sort of moved into this direction).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Labour landslide.

The Tories need a hint with extreme, very much deserved prejudice.

[axiomsofdominion]

Sucks that it will be under Starmer but def looking like a landslide.

[Mr. Smith]

The 2nd.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

I’d prefer the second because I’m not really big on Starmer and could conceivably vote LibDem or Green depending on the constituency

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Option 1

[courts]

labor majority <200 seats with libdem opposition

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

It makes nearly no difference in terms of governance and the Tories losing their status as one of the two major parties would be incredibly funny (and deserved), which makes my answer obvious. In addition, the second scenario has a ridiculously high threshold anyway, as not even Blair's Labour in 1997 won a 200-seat majority or got very close.

By the way, the implication that the Lib Dems are part of "the left" is dubious at best, especially in a scenario where they become the Official Opposition to a Labour government.

[morgieb]

Depends on the strength of Reform. If we assume equal strength then Option 2. But I feel like if Option 2 was to happen it's because Reform's made some significant gains....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What matters is that this wretched government is defeated. All else is secondary to that.

[MyLifeIsYours 🇵🇸 🇨🇩 🇸🇩]

Worker’s Party landslide would be my dream scenario.

Sadly, we live in a world where the Labour Party will win and nothing changes out of Britain.

[หมูเด้ง]

I think option 2 would be the 🔪🍆 that the British Right needs after 14 years of heinous jackassery.