2024 UK General Election Predictions.

[Blair]

Labour- 430

Conservatives- 145

Liberals- 55

Reform- 2

Greens- 3

[ObserverIE]

Lab 495
Lib Dem 58
Con 49
SNP 16
DUP 7
SF 6
PC 4
Greens 4
Re-fUK 3
UUP 2
SDLP 2
Ind 2
All 1
Speaker 1

[Cassius]

I’m not going to bother predicting a very specific seat count because that’s an absolute crapshoot, but here are my predictions for the popular vote:

Labour: 40%
Conservative: 25%
Reform: 13%
Liberal Democrats: 12%
Green: 5%

I think that Farage will win in Clacton (although it will be close) but otherwise Reform won’t win anywhere else. I think the Greens will probably pick up an additional seat or two. Tories as official opposition, with around 100-150 seats, probably on the lower end of that range due to tactical voting.

Because I am a sucker for punishment:

Labour: 442
Conservative: 120
Liberal Democrats: 39
SNP: 24
PC: 3
Green: 2
Reform: 1
Independent: 1 (no idea who, but I feel like one will win somewhere)

[Logical]

SNP •     27% in Scotland
22-27 seats

If SNP is polling at 27% in Scotland they would be winning less than 10 seats. Just saying.

[Punxsutawney Phil]

Vote share:
LAB: 40%
CON: 22%
LD: 14%
REF: 13%
GRN: 5%

Seats:
LAB 431
CON 112
LD 60
SNP 20
SF 7
DUP 5
Alliance 3
PC 3
REF 2
SDLP 2
GRN 2
UUP 1
IND 1 (Corbyn)
Speaker 1

(copied Logical's NI prediction)

[jaichind]

GB only

LAB       420      39.0%
CON      110      20.6%
LDEM      69      12.5%
REF          3       16.7%
Green       1        6.2%
SNP        23
PC            4
Speaker    1
Ind           1

[MillennialModerate]

SNP •     27% in Scotland
22-27 seats

If SNP is polling at 27% in Scotland they would be winning less than 10 seats. Just saying.

DOUBLE POST

MODS DELETE.

[MillennialModerate]

SNP •     27% in Scotland
22-27 seats

If SNP is polling at 27% in Scotland they would be winning less than 10 seats. Just saying.

Pretty sure I saw a poll that had them at 29% winning around 27 seats. Maybe I didn’t

[Logical]

SNP •     27% in Scotland
22-27 seats

If SNP is polling at 27% in Scotland they would be winning less than 10 seats. Just saying.

Pretty sure I saw a poll that had them at 29% winning around 27 seats. Maybe I didn’t

You didn't. The SNP vote becomes extremely inefficient when they poll under 30%.

[Talleyrand]

Labour: 405
Conservatives: 169
Lib Dems: 23
Greens: 2
Reform: 1
SNP: 28
Plaid: 2
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1 (Corbyn)

[beesley]

Now that someone else has done theirs and I don't feel like a nerd, posting my seat by seat guesses here. Same overall numbers as before.

Some general comments:
-There are many Tory-held seats I've picked to switch that I don't feel that confident about, including the Green targets, but there will be surprises in some aware.
-For Lib Dem targets I've perhaps boosted them a little bit more when they have more 'habit' and to a lesser extent fewer Lib Dem targets surrounding them.
-If what I read about turnout is right then it makes sense that the SNP don't hold up so well in those new towns they did so well in.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Here's a little banter prediction: Keith Vaz shocks

[DL]

One thing I find a bit frustrating in trying to predict what will happen in Scotland is that I don't see much information in the polling about sub-regions of Scotland...there could be very different things going on in Greater Glasgow where Labour may be making a major comeback vs in areas like the highlands or the borders where its more of a SNP/Tory contest

[JimJamUK]

One thing I find a bit frustrating in trying to predict what will happen in Scotland is that I don't see much information in the polling about sub-regions of Scotland...there could be very different things going on in Greater Glasgow where Labour may be making a major comeback vs in areas like the highlands or the borders where its more of a SNP/Tory contest

My educated guess is that Labour rise more in urban/Central Belt Scotland, especially places like a large Conservative vote, while seeing a smaller rise in rural seats where they don’t have much history or potential. In these seats I suspect both the Tories and SNP will hold up relatively well, but the former probably more so as the anti-SNP has no reason to go Labour.

[YL]

Any seats (NI excluded) with potential for messy four or five way marginals? Perhaps Argyll, Bute, and & South Lochaber?

I think the weird forecasts are partly to do with the fact that the models can't handle the Independent vote in 2019, but Exmouth & Exeter East has some potential, and has had four different parties projected as winning.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Labour 40.1% 439 Seats
Conservatives 23.2% 98 Seats
Reform 16.5% 6 Seats
Liberal Democrats 11.7% 68 Seats
Green 3.3% 3 Seats
SNP 3% 15 Seats
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 3 Seats

Northern Ireland 18 seats

[JimJamUK]

Since others have done so, here's my probably wrong guesses:





Lab - 406
Con - 152
LD - 56
SNP - 13
PC - 3
Ref - 1
Green - 1

General comments:
I'm assuming national vote share of approximately 40% Labour, 25% Con, 10% LD, 15% Ref, 5% Green. In Scotland I'm assuming Labour a few % ahead of the SNP and the Tories on 15%.
I'm probably more bullish on the Tories as i've accounted for a number of 'safe' seats having very good local elections for them, and similarly there's a a good number of seats in likely/safe where Labour could win on national figures but local elections suggest they are too poorly organised/another party is the challenger resulting in a split vote.
I may be undercounting has efficient the Labour vote is in the marginals, and similarly its weakness in LD targets, both of which would hurt the Tories.
I think the Tory and Reform vote is too similar for the latter to win anything but Clacton without coming close to tying the Tories nationally.
I think the Scot Tories will do well in the ~10 seats they are still relevant in thanks to unionist/anti-SNP voters being stickier than unhappy SNP voters, but do pretty appalling everywhere else.

Happy to discuss/debate any seats or general trends with fellow posters

[beesley]

Since others have done so, here's my probably wrong guesses:

Happy to discuss/debate any seats or general trends with fellow posters

Though such is this election even you have seats I predicted Tory with a more bearish prediction for them going a different way - I noticed Mid Sussex, Mid Leicestershire and Mid Dorset. I'm sure the answer lies somewhere in the mid(dle). I agree with your general sense that safer Tory seats relative to their region will hold up a bit better such as in Cheshire, London, around Birmingham and other parts of the Midlands rather than the catastrophic forecasts for those regions - I just have a more bearish prediction for those areas than you do so it's less apparent in mine.

[JimJamUK]

Though such is this election even you have seats I predicted Tory with a more bearish prediction for them going a different way - I noticed Mid Sussex, Mid Leicestershire and Mid Dorset. I'm sure the answer lies somewhere in the mid(dle). I agree with your general sense that safer Tory seats relative to their region will hold up a bit better such as in Cheshire, London, around Birmingham and other parts of the Midlands rather than the catastrophic forecasts for those regions - I just have a more bearish prediction for those areas than you do so it's less apparent in mine.

Mid Leicestershire was actually an error, meant to be likely Tory 😅

A general pattern in my against the national swing Conservative holds (and safeness) is that they are mostly in areas that are historically Conservative, look so demographically, but had fairly anaemic Conservative majorities given the landslide nationally. Especially in the more remain inclined ones, I’m sceptical that the Tories have as many votes to lose to Labour as they do in places where Boris already did historically very well (nevermind the impact of Reform).

[Chaos with Keir Starmer]

Final Guess (July 3, 2024)
Going a bit bold on a few things
Great Britain
Labour - 434
Tories - 93
LibDems - 69
SNP - 17
RefUK - 9
PC - 4
Green - 4
Speaker - 1
Independent - 1 (Corbyn, against my better judgement)

Northern Ireland (admittedly tossing darts)
SF - 7
DUP - 6
Alliance - 2
SDLP - 2
UUP - 1

UK-wide (accounting for the couple percent for NI parties) percentages for selected parties:

Labour: 39.9% (+7.8%)
Tories: 20.8% (-22.8%)
RefUK: 15.1% (+13.1% over Brexit Party)
LibDems: 11.6% (nc)
Green: 5.1% (+2.5%)
SNP: 2.5% (-1.4%)

Others (incl PC, NI Parties, Speaker, others): 5%

[MABA 2020]

By the time this is finished something along the lines of

Lab- 465 Seats
Con- 76 Seats
Lib- 58 Seats
Ref- 3 Seats
Green- 1 Seat
SNP- 20 Seats

Was going to make a final prediction for tomorrow, but I might just stick with this one. Tories might do a little better, closer to 100 maybe? But lets hope they end up in the double digits

[Talleyrand]

I still can't fathom how the LDs could win 40+ seats on their current vote share, but we'll find out soon enough...

[Oryxslayer]

I know it's close to midnight in the UK, but please don't lock this thread yet, maybe wait until polls open. Personally I'm going to be editing this post later to add something meaningful once I'm done getting things in order at work for the holiday weekend, and I'm sure others may be in similar boats.

[JimJamUK]

I still can't fathom how the LDs could win 40+ seats on their current vote share, but we'll find out soon enough...

The Tory vote share could be as low as 20%, and given basically all the Lib Dem target seats are Tory facing with expected swings against them in seats where Labour are the main anti-Tory party, it’s not too unlikely they get 50-70 seats off 10-12%. 1997 was a less extreme version of this election, and they doubled their number of MPs on a falling vote share.

[somerandomth]

Just some last minute thoughts here. I've put in a list of fun constituencies as well just for individual seat predictions.

Labour - 39.4% - 425
Conservative - 22.1% - 112
Reform - 14.1% - 3
Liberal Democrats - 11.1% - 66
Green - 6.1% - 3
SNP - 2.7% - 17
PC - 0.7% - 4
Independents - 0.6% - 1
NI - 1.9% - 18
Other - 1.3% - 1 (Speaker)

Bristol Central - Green - 5.6%
South West Norfolk - Labour - 1.2%
Plymouth Moor View - Labour - 8.7%
Portsmouth North - Conservative - 3.9%
Islington North - Independent (Corbyn)- 6.8%
Birmingham Ladywood - Labour - 12.2%
Waveney Valley - Green - 0.6%
North Herefordshire - Conservative - 2.2%
Brighton Pavillion - Green - 18.4%
South Basildon and East Thurrock - Conservative - 1.4%
Ashfield - Reform - 0.7%
Glasgow East - Labour - 2.1%
Ynys Mons - PC - 3.2%
Richmond and Northallerton - Conservative - 14.2%
Goldaming and Ash - Liberal Democrats - 7.8%
Thurrock - Reform - 16.6%