The Elections of 2024: You Decide - French Legislative

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

577 seats elected in a 2-round system. This leads to a lot of potential runoff scenarios, but in order to cut down on the number of combinations of runoff matchups, I will make a 2nd round post after the results of this are done. We're also not including the myriad of misc. candidates for simplicity's sake. Regionalists will be calculated, but no votes allowed for them since I don't want the potential for a result where somehow regionalists win a majority of seats, or something.

Major coalitions/parties:

TOGETHER (ENS): The coalition of President Macron, including parties that range from centre-left to centre-right, though leaning more towards the right than left, on balance. Very pro-business neoliberal, having been the target of protests for trying to raise the retirement age. Centre/Centre-right.
New Popular Front (NFP): A broad coalition of the left, including the social democratic Socialist Party (PS), Mélenchon's left-populist France Unbowed (LFI), the green Ecologists (LE), the French Communist Party (PCF), and many minor parties. Main policy points are overturning Macron's immigration policy and pension reforms/cuts. Centre-left to Far-left.
National Rally (RN): The nationalist and right-wing populist party of Marine Le Pen, currently led by her son-in-law Jordan Bardella. Far-right.
The Republicans (LR): Party of the mainstream right, currently in a massive internal civil war after their party president Eric Ciotti has tried to work with RN, leading to his attempted ousting. Despite this, Bardella has stated ~70 joint candidates will be run between RN and LR. Local branches have gone in different directions though, with those in Hauts-de-Seine making an alliance with RES, raising questions as to the longevity of the party. Right-wing.

3 days.

[S019]

Renaissance

[Antonio the Sixth]

[President Johnson]

Ensemble/Renaissance.

[KaiserDave]

[Alcibiades]

In the vast majority of constituencies, NFP. The only cases in which I might not would be if the NFP candidate was particularly objectionable (i.e. presumably a Méluchiste) and a suitable divers gauche candidate was also running in the seat.

[Dr. MB]

Wow you forgot to include Lutte Ouvrière

Anyway the popular front of course

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

Wow you forgot to include Lutte Ouvrière

Anyway the popular front of course

I didn't include a lot of the smaller parties, simply due to the fact that the 2 round system makes it unrealistic for them to get any seats without serious local brands in a constituency (see: DLF with Dupont-Aignan)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

NPF, no matter who.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NPF in a majority of constituencies, but a tactical anti-RN voter above all else.

[VPH]

Of these, Macron's grouping. With minor parties included, probably some random rural interest list like Lassalle's party.

[Dr. Cynic]

NFP in all cases except where they would have no chance and then any party that would prevent the Nazis from winning.

[jaichind]

RN

[lfromnj]

In the vast majority of constituencies, NFP. The only cases in which I might not would be if the NFP candidate was particularly objectionable (i.e. presumably a Méluchiste) and a suitable divers gauche candidate was also running in the seat.

https://[https://twitter.com/VLautard/status/1803699066540302775?s=33
Rn beating NFP but still losing to Macron.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

NFP in all cases except where they would have no chance and then any party that would prevent the Nazis from winning.

There is a 2nd round for those cases.

[ReallySuper]

in the first round, probably npa révolutionnaires/lutte ouvrière/extrême gauche. the second round is for settling for nfp. hard to vote for a list with hollande on it

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

So I was planning on a second round, etc etc, but

1) clearly this is going to be a strong NFP majority
2) trying to figure out the makeup of the runoffs is such a mess that even trying to do it just for one region has made me have a headache
3) the fact that there's a way to have a 3-way runoff makes that even worse

all combines to me just saying "f**k it" sorry if that sounds lazy (it is) but this is just pain