Bidenís rumored amnesty plan strikes me as very dumb politically
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  Bidenís rumored amnesty plan strikes me as very dumb politically
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Author Topic: Bidenís rumored amnesty plan strikes me as very dumb politically  (Read 703 times)
Matty
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« on: June 16, 2024, 12:59:56 PM »

Public opinion polling shows Americans overall have a more right wing view of immigration now than at any point in modern memory. A recent cbs poll shocked the anchors when it showed than even a third of democrats supported mass deportation.

Biden rolling out amnesty does not read the room properly, and would probably be struck down anyway.

What am I missing here? How doesnít this hurt him in the southwest swing states?
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2024, 01:15:46 PM »

He's trying to attack Trump on DACA in 2024. Who is advising him? The country has moved more right wing on immigration and in today's world Trump could probably even get away with using the cages and family seperation unlike 2018.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2024, 02:17:18 PM »

Public opinion polling shows Americans overall have a more right wing view of immigration now than at any point in modern memory. A recent cbs poll shocked the anchors when it showed than even a third of democrats supported mass deportation.

Biden rolling out amnesty does not read the room properly, and would probably be struck down anyway.

What am I missing here? How doesnít this hurt him in the southwest swing states?

Because they aren't the same thing. There's a big delta between wanting to curb illegal immigration and a pathway to citizenship for people already here. That CBS question result was a very big outlier among those types of topics.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2024, 03:58:39 PM »

Because DACA specifically is about people who were brought here as children. They obviously didn't really have a say, so they're much more sympathetic to many people.
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TechbroMBA
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2024, 06:42:23 PM »

Because DACA specifically is about people who were brought here as children. They obviously didn't really have a say, so they're much more sympathetic to many people.

DACA is just a way to crybully families into the country. Suddenly you legalize a bunch of kids who will now be able to sponsor the rest of the family.

It remains stunning to me that Democrats just never want to learn that human beings respond to incentives.

If you make claiming asylum an easier path into the country, people will claim asylum. If you wonít deport children, and make family reunification a necessity, people will bring their kids on a dangerous trip as a card to prevent deportation. Finally, if you consider amnesty before you plug the issue of enforcement, you create the precedent and expectation that those who get through the net will eventually be made legal. Amnesty will create an even bigger wave of people looking to enter the country.
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Beet
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2024, 06:54:21 PM »

DACA is to immigration what "partial-birth" abortion is to abortion. It's the one aspect of an issue where the side that is generally less popular actually has the advantage. If Republicans want to make the immigration debate all about DACA go ahead, but all they're doing it taking an issue that they should have an advantage on, and making it all about the subset of immigrants that is actually the most sympathetic to the broader public.

As far as Biden's "amnesty", you guys might as well bite the bullet. The mobilization that it would take to deport millions of people who have been here over 10 years and the disruption to American society this would cause would be a very tall order even in another Trump administration. The vast majority of these people are likely going to be here for as long as they want, provided they are law abiding.
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« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2024, 08:54:20 PM »

DACA is to immigration what "partial-birth" abortion is to abortion. It's the one aspect of an issue where the side that is generally less popular actually has the advantage. If Republicans want to make the immigration debate all about DACA go ahead, but all they're doing it taking an issue that they should have an advantage on, and making it all about the subset of immigrants that is actually the most sympathetic to the broader public.

As far as Biden's "amnesty", you guys might as well bite the bullet. The mobilization that it would take to deport millions of people who have been here over 10 years and the disruption to American society this would cause would be a very tall order even in another Trump administration. The vast majority of these people are likely going to be here for as long as they want, provided they are law abiding.

At the very least, everyone who came here illegally in the past 4 years should be deported.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2024, 09:03:31 PM »

Did no one bother to post what Biden's actually proposing?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-plan-undocumented-immigrants-legal-status-10-years-in-u-s-married/

Quote
A program being developed by White House officials would offer work permits and deportation protections to unauthorized immigrants married to U.S. citizens, as long as they have lived in the U.S. for at least 10 years, the sources said, requesting anonymity to talk about internal government plans.

The proposal, known as "Parole in Place," would also open up a pathway to permanent legal status and U.S. citizenship for some beneficiaries by removing an obstacle in U.S. law that prevents those who entered the U.S. illegally from obtaining green cards without leaving the country.

Another plan being prepared by the Biden administration would streamline the process for so-called DREAMers and other undocumented immigrants to request waivers that would make it easier for them to obtain temporary visas, such as H-1B visas for high-skilled workers, the sources said.

So first part is extending DACA protections that already exist for child arrivals to spouses of American citizens who have been in the US since 2013 or before.

The second part is streamlining the process of getting visas for people who are in the DACA program without the current ridiculous "You have to go back to El Salvador or whatever to process your paperwork" rule to help naturalize them.

In either the existing DACA case or the new people getting added to this, we're talking about people who have been in the US for a LONG time. Many of the DACA people are in their 30s now (remember, the really big illegal immigration wave was in the 1990s and early 2000s) and came to the US when they were 2 or whatever.
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2024, 09:09:04 PM »

He's trying to attack Trump on DACA in 2024. Who is advising him? The country has moved more right wing on immigration and in today's world Trump could probably even get away with using the cages and family seperation unlike 2018.

Nonsense, issue polling often shows shifts against the President's position. When it's actually something that is going to happen, people are more hesitant. You guys should have already learned this lesson from Obamacare and abortion.
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Beet
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« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2024, 12:28:15 PM »

Another reason this is acutally smart is that it targets the undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens (a.k.a. voters) with a material benefit. That's hundreds of thousands of voters across the country whose lives will be significantly impacted by Biden's rule, which means tens of thousands of votes in swing states. And of those tens of thousands, these people are far more likely to actually vote based on this issue than the typical voter. So he is targeting pretty smart here.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2024, 12:47:07 PM »

Public opinion polling shows Americans overall have a more right wing view of immigration now than at any point in modern memory. A recent cbs poll shocked the anchors when it showed than even a third of democrats supported mass deportation.

Biden rolling out amnesty does not read the room properly, and would probably be struck down anyway.

What am I missing here? How doesnít this hurt him in the southwest swing states?

Because they aren't the same thing. There's a big delta between wanting to curb illegal immigration and a pathway to citizenship for people already here. That CBS question result was a very big outlier among those types of topics.
Oop
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2024, 12:51:14 PM »

Public opinion polling shows Americans overall have a more right wing view of immigration now than at any point in modern memory. A recent cbs poll shocked the anchors when it showed than even a third of democrats supported mass deportation.

Biden rolling out amnesty does not read the room properly, and would probably be struck down anyway.

What am I missing here? How doesnít this hurt him in the southwest swing states?

Because they aren't the same thing. There's a big delta between wanting to curb illegal immigration and a pathway to citizenship for people already here. That CBS question result was a very big outlier among those types of topics.
Oop

But but but minorities won't swing right because MUH 2022
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DrScholl
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« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2024, 01:12:15 PM »

Mass deportation isn't going to happen period and that polling question is so generic that a yes or no answer can't represent what every single person thinks. If you factored in the millions of dollars it would take to pull this off and massive enforcement it would take you'd get very different numbers.

And threads like this should not be allowed. You all want Trump to win so bad that you will start threads that outright lie about what Biden is proposing.
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Biden 2020 Voters for 2024 Write-In Candidate
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2024, 01:52:54 PM »

Another reason this is acutally smart is that it targets the undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens (a.k.a. voters) with a material benefit. That's hundreds of thousands of voters across the country whose lives will be significantly impacted by Biden's rule, which means tens of thousands of votes in swing states. And of those tens of thousands, these people are far more likely to actually vote based on this issue than the typical voter. So he is targeting pretty smart here.

This is a particularly good and important point.

However, a key thing is Biden needs to make sure those voters know that they are getting this, and they are getting it specifically from Biden.

It's similar to how Trump gained from the (incorrect) perception among some voters that he was responsible for them receiving stimulus checks, since his name was printed on them.

Biden needs to do similar sorts of things, i.e. mailing notices to eligible people or something (obviously with Biden's name all over it).
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« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2024, 01:56:14 PM »

Public opinion polling shows Americans overall have a more right wing view of immigration now than at any point in modern memory. A recent cbs poll shocked the anchors when it showed than even a third of democrats supported mass deportation.

Biden rolling out amnesty does not read the room properly, and would probably be struck down anyway.

What am I missing here? How doesnít this hurt him in the southwest swing states?

Because they aren't the same thing. There's a big delta between wanting to curb illegal immigration and a pathway to citizenship for people already here. That CBS question result was a very big outlier among those types of topics.
Oop
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1802492917379919876

This is the sort of thing (similar to banning abortion) that a lot of people think they would support until it actually happens.

If it happened, they would quickly turn against it when they see prices of food etc spiking due to lack of agricultural workers and the like.
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henster
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« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2024, 05:07:53 PM »

I don't think the Team Biden has any clue what their doing they are just throwing anything at the wall to see what sticks politically. I remember a couple of months ago he inexplicably banned LNG exports which was highly unpopular in states like Pennsylvania to try to appeal to young climate focused voters. He just has terrible political instincts and its amazing he's gotten as far as he has in politics.
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