County hot takes

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is for shocking predictions on how counties will vote in 2024
 I'll start with mine-
Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D
Gwinnett votes to the left of Muscogee
Hamilton County votes to the left of Lake County IN
Morris County NJ swings R

[iceman]

Johnson county, KS swings further left
Trump wins Winnebago county, IL
Muskegon county, MI votes for Trump
DeKalb county, GA swings to Trump by a lot
Dane county, WI is almost 80% D
Nassau and Suffolk counties, NY vote R by double digits
Some blue counties in the sandhills region in NC will flip to Trump
King county, WA will vote left of the whole NYC.
Arapahoe county, CO will be close to 70% D
Fairfax county, VA as well as Loudoun and Prince William will swing right.

[wnwnwn]

Queens votes D by a 38%D margin, in part for AOC-Biden voters in Astoria voting third party.
Something similar happens in Brooklyn, which votes D in a 48% margin.
Despite that, Nassau keeps being D, in like a 6% margin. Suffolk stays sighlty R or maybe swings D if a dems make NY-01 competitive.

Most upstate NY trends R expect the cities and most counties in NY-22.

Collin County finally goes D, but metro Houston trends R a bit. The panhandle semiurban counties trend D, but obviously are still R. Maybe Bowie and similar semuurban counties behave in a similar way. Brazos keep trending D, but votes with a under5% margin for the GOP.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D

How could Multnomah County possibly swing D if Fort Bend flips? There’s no universe where I can imagine Multnomah County voting that one-sidedly D, not even if Biden somehow wins 400 EVs.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D

How could Multnomah County possibly swing D if Fort Bend flips?

Very secular and lacks the children under 18 that Fort Bend has. Republicans have been making gains with parents with kids <18
Also Fort Bend is a lot less white than the nation.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D

How could Multnomah County possibly swing D if Fort Bend flips?

Very secular and lacks the children under 18 that Fort Bend has. Republicans have been making gains with parents with kids <18
Also Fort Bend is a lot less white than the nation.

If Fort Bend swings R by more than 5% (which I don’t think will happen btw), there’s a 100% chance Multnomah also swings R. I expect Multnomah to swing R regardless of what happens in Metro Houston, but I’m not sure if it’ll be more due to third-party vote or the R vote share increasing.

[seskoog]

Hawaii is the only state where either party sweeps every county (Kent RI and Bristol MA flip red, Oklahoma OK and Monongalia WV flip blue).
Mahoning Coubty votes to the right of Ohio as a whole.
Trump gets 100% of the vote in one of the small Texas counties which were over 95% R in 2020.
Washoe votes to the left of Clark.
DC is the only county equivalent nationwide where Biden crosses 85%.
Collin and Tarrant TX are within one point of each other
And while this is not the presidential race, I think the abortion amendment in Florida does worse in Miami Dade than it does statewide

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is for shocking predictions on how counties will vote in 2024
 I'll start with mine-
Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D
Gwinnett votes to the left of Muscogee
Hamilton County votes to the left of Lake County IN
Morris County NJ swings R

Fort Bend flipping back is very bold - why do you think Trump flips it back? The County's demographic changes have generally not been good for Republicans as more blue suburbs of Houston spillover into the County.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D

How could Multnomah County possibly swing D if Fort Bend flips?

Very secular and lacks the children under 18 that Fort Bend has. Republicans have been making gains with parents with kids <18
Also Fort Bend is a lot less white than the nation.

Multnomah County being nearly 90% D would be nearly ~15% swing left from 2020 which would be pretty insane - the main thing holding Dems down in the County is Portland's Western suburbs like Gresham which aren't as culturally liberal as Portland proper and actually have some good signs for Republicans - I think that'll prevent the County from getting anywhere close to 90% D in 2024.

Also is there any real evidence Republicans are gaining meaningful ground with parents as a whole; it seems like this group has leaned Republican for a while but hasn't gotten significant more Republican.

[Spectator]

-Biden holds Talbot and Inyo counties, which were both surprises in 2020 that no one saw coming.

-Biden flips Grand Traverse County despite losing Michigan

-Biden retains both Clark and Washoe but still loses Nevada. Washoe possibly votes further left of Clark.

-Trump wins Palm Beach and Miami-Dade (probably not a hot take, but some peoplebrefuse to let go of the idea of Florida as a swing state.

-Biden wins Oklahoma County

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden has a scare in Passaic County, NJ

[lfromnj]

This is for shocking predictions on how counties will vote in 2024
 I'll start with mine-
Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D
Gwinnett votes to the left of Muscogee
Hamilton County votes to the left of Lake County IN
Morris County NJ swings R

Hamilton is already Biden +30 while Lake is Biden +15?

[cg41386]

This is for shocking predictions on how counties will vote in 2024
 I'll start with mine-
Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D
Gwinnett votes to the left of Muscogee
Hamilton County votes to the left of Lake County IN
Morris County NJ swings R

Hamilton is already Biden +30 while Lake is Biden +15?

Hamilton hasn't voted Dem since Woodrow Wilson.

[seskoog]

This is for shocking predictions on how counties will vote in 2024
 I'll start with mine-
Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D
Gwinnett votes to the left of Muscogee
Hamilton County votes to the left of Lake County IN
Morris County NJ swings R

Hamilton is already Biden +30 while Lake is Biden +15?

If Hamilton County voted to the left of Lake County, I’m guessing Hamilton would be D+7 and Lake D+6. Very unlikely this year

[Sumner 1868]

Albany County, WY will pick the winner.

[Tekken_Guy]

-Biden holds Talbot and Inyo counties, which were both surprises in 2020 that no one saw coming.

-Biden flips Grand Traverse County despite losing Michigan

-Biden retains both Clark and Washoe but still loses Nevada. Washoe possibly votes further left of Clark.

-Trump wins Palm Beach and Miami-Dade (probably not a hot take, but some peoplebrefuse to let go of the idea of Florida as a swing state.

-Biden wins Oklahoma County

I think Trump will hold Grand Traverse if he wins Michigan. And as of right now I think Biden will carry Michigan even if he loses the election.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is for shocking predictions on how counties will vote in 2024
 I'll start with mine-
Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D
Gwinnett votes to the left of Muscogee
Hamilton County votes to the left of Lake County IN
Morris County NJ swings R

Hamilton is already Biden +30 while Lake is Biden +15?

Hamilton Indiana

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is for shocking predictions on how counties will vote in 2024
 I'll start with mine-
Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D
Gwinnett votes to the left of Muscogee
Hamilton County votes to the left of Lake County IN
Morris County NJ swings R

Fort Bend flipping back is very bold - why do you think Trump flips it back? The County's demographic changes have generally not been good for Republicans as more blue suburbs of Houston spillover into the County.

I've never been one to dismiss the crosstabs and believe Trump really is making massive gains with minorities like we're seeing in the polling. I understand Fort Bend is quite educated and wealthy but it's literally 29% white. I also believe, and I think 2022 results back me up on this, that asians will swing further right than other minority groups(not saying hispanics and blacks wont swing significantly R just that asians will swing more) and Fort Bend is much more asian than the nation.

[MarkD]

St. Louis County, MO votes further left -- about 63% - 33% -- owing to a shift in pro-choice Republican voters. If the referendum on abortion passes, that leftward shift won't last; it will be temporary, and those pro-choice Republicans will come home to roost.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is for shocking predictions on how counties will vote in 2024
 I'll start with mine-
Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D
Gwinnett votes to the left of Muscogee
Hamilton County votes to the left of Lake County IN
Morris County NJ swings R

Fort Bend flipping back is very bold - why do you think Trump flips it back? The County's demographic changes have generally not been good for Republicans as more blue suburbs of Houston spillover into the County.

I've never been one to dismiss the crosstabs and believe Trump really is making massive gains with minorities like we're seeing in the polling. I understand Fort Bend is quite educated and wealthy but it's literally 29% white. I also believe, and I think 2022 results back me up on this, that asians will swing further right than other minority groups(not saying hispanics and blacks wont swing significantly R just that asians will swing more) and Fort Bend is much more asian than the nation.

Sure, but in practice the non-white share of the electorate in Fort Bend County is probably more like 50-60% in a normal given how much higher turnout white voters are in that part of Texas. If we assume there's no favorable growth for Dems and Ft. Bend whites vote the same as they did in 2020, it would take Fort Bend non-whites as a collective swinging 20% to the right which I'm just not seeing right now.

Also curious as to why you think Asians specifically swing so hard right?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is for shocking predictions on how counties will vote in 2024
 I'll start with mine-
Fort Bend County votes Republican
Multnomah County is almost 90% D
Gwinnett votes to the left of Muscogee
Hamilton County votes to the left of Lake County IN
Morris County NJ swings R

Fort Bend flipping back is very bold - why do you think Trump flips it back? The County's demographic changes have generally not been good for Republicans as more blue suburbs of Houston spillover into the County.

I've never been one to dismiss the crosstabs and believe Trump really is making massive gains with minorities like we're seeing in the polling. I understand Fort Bend is quite educated and wealthy but it's literally 29% white. I also believe, and I think 2022 results back me up on this, that asians will swing further right than other minority groups(not saying hispanics and blacks wont swing significantly R just that asians will swing more) and Fort Bend is much more asian than the nation.

Sure, but in practice the non-white share of the electorate in Fort Bend County is probably more like 50-60% in a normal given how much higher turnout white voters are in that part of Texas. If we assume there's no favorable growth for Dems and Ft. Bend whites vote the same as they did in 2020, it would take Fort Bend non-whites as a collective swinging 20% to the right which I'm just not seeing right now.

Also curious as to why you think Asians specifically swing so hard right?

2022 midterms- Asians swung decently right while hispanics/blacks stayed stagnant. I think exit polls showed Abbott only losings asians by 4 which is really shocking. Asians also mostly live in democratic cities, so they would be more effected by far left policies than say, a white college educated man living in rural New Hampshire. I know I don't put much stock in issue polling but there was a poll showing Asians are quite conservative on the issue of immigration compared to blacks and hispanics. That was really surprising