If Democrats go all out on the pro-abortion stuff, do they risk losing a lot of pro-life voters?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Pretty hard to imagine a scenario where mainstream Dems go further to the left on abortion than Republicans are currently going to the right. The Dems are much, much closer to the median than their opposition. It's one of the few issues where they'll gain more votes relative to 2020 than they'll lose.

Trump is campaigning on keeping the federal government out of it, while Biden is running on codifying Roe. Seems pretty clear who’s closer to the median.

You're playing dumb. The Dobbs ruling was unpopular and abortion rights are currently enjoying popularity that is pretty much unprecedented in recent history. Every piece of electoral and polling data we have since June of 2022 says that Dobbs was a loser for Republicans, and Democrats know it.

[Ferguson97]

Pretty hard to imagine a scenario where mainstream Dems go further to the left on abortion than Republicans are currently going to the right. The Dems are much, much closer to the median than their opposition. It's one of the few issues where they'll gain more votes relative to 2020 than they'll lose.

Trump is campaigning on keeping the federal government out of it, while Biden is running on codifying Roe. Seems pretty clear who’s closer to the median.

Yup, Biden.

[Torie]

Trump is not all that extreme on the abortion issue (He wants to leave it to leave it to the  states Ala Nikki Haley), so it will be hard for Biden to demonize it for it. We will find out on June 26.

[TML]

Contrary to what some posters here apparently believe, polling shows that the "median" position on abortion is not "let the states decide whatever they want," but rather "no bans before viability." The original Roe decision reflects the latter position.

[Ancestral Republican]

Trump is not all that extreme on the abortion issue (He wants to leave it to leave it to the  states Ala Nikki Haley), so it will be hard for Biden to demonize it for it. We will find out on June 26.

He's said he's open to signing a national abortion ban.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump is not all that extreme on the abortion issue (He wants to leave it to leave it to the  states Ala Nikki Haley), so it will be hard for Biden to demonize it for it. We will find out on June 26.

He's said he's open to signing a national abortion ban.

And he takes credit for Dobbs whenever he gets the chance.

[SnowLabrador]

Nobody who cares that much about being anti-choice is going to vote for a Democrat anyway.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Being anti abortion does not make a person 'pro life.'

That's an absurd Orwellian claim.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

As a pro-life Democrat, I can say they won’t lose me as long as the Republican Party is all about MAGA.

[Brittain33]

Trump is not all that extreme on the abortion issue (He wants to leave it to leave it to the  states Ala Nikki Haley), so it will be hard for Biden to demonize it for it. We will find out on June 26.

I don’t agree. It’s quite easy and profitable for Biden to run tons of ads attacking Trump for things he’s said in the past including taking credit for appointing the 3 Republican judges to overturn legal abortion. If a candidate hedging what he says or disowning extremism made it hard to demonize them - John Kerry would have been elected President. Trump voted for banning abortion before he voted against it, n’est-ce pas?

[Pericles]

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Contrary to what some posters here apparently believe, polling shows that the "median" position on abortion is not "let the states decide whatever they want," but rather "no bans before viability." The original Roe decision reflects the latter position.

If you ask whether abortion should be legal before viability, a majority will say yes. But if you ask whether abortion should be legal in the second trimester, a majority will say no.

[Brittain33]

Contrary to what some posters here apparently believe, polling shows that the "median" position on abortion is not "let the states decide whatever they want," but rather "no bans before viability." The original Roe decision reflects the latter position.

If you ask whether abortion should be legal before viability, a majority will say yes. But if you ask whether abortion should be legal in the second trimester, a majority will say no.

Not doubting you, but can you share the polls you’re referring to for the second statement?

[Pres Mike]

Democrats lost pro-life voters long before Dobbs.

No? I'm a pro life Democrat. There is still lots of pro life Hispanics and African Americans

[Agonized-Statism]

I have to wonder if juiced-up Bible Belt turnout explains at least a little bit of Georgia's likely flip back this year.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrats lost pro-life voters long before Dobbs.

No? I'm a pro life Democrat. There is still lots of pro life Hispanics and African Americans

Here's the thing. There are still "pro-life" Democrats to some extent. But it's more in the Bob Casey/Tim Kaine vein. Would that be an accurate description of your views? Essentially, being personally pro-life but understanding that you'll never be in the position of a woman, and not being comfortable imposing yoyr whims on them. Is that a fair statement in contrast to the virulently more "anti-choice" types on the right you find?

[Pres Mike]

Democrats lost pro-life voters long before Dobbs.

No? I'm a pro life Democrat. There is still lots of pro life Hispanics and African Americans

Here's the thing. There are still "pro-life" Democrats to some extent. But it's more in the Bob Casey/Tim Kaine vein. Would that be an accurate description of your views? Essentially, being personally pro-life but understanding that you'll never be in the position of a woman, and not being comfortable imposing yoyr whims on them. Is that a fair statement in contrast to the virulently more "anti-choice" types on the right you find?

Not really

My views are more in line with the typcially minority voter age 40+

"I don't like abortion (with exceptions) But I support Democrat's views on welfare and labor. I'm going to vote for my own financial best interest and ignore the parts I don't like."

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrats lost pro-life voters long before Dobbs.

No? I'm a pro life Democrat. There is still lots of pro life Hispanics and African Americans

Here's the thing. There are still "pro-life" Democrats to some extent. But it's more in the Bob Casey/Tim Kaine vein. Would that be an accurate description of your views? Essentially, being personally pro-life but understanding that you'll never be in the position of a woman, and not being comfortable imposing yoyr whims on them. Is that a fair statement in contrast to the virulently more "anti-choice" types on the right you find?

Not really

My views are more in line with the typcially minority voter age 40+

"I don't like abortion (with exceptions) But I support Democrat's views on welfare and labor. I'm going to vote for my own financial best interest and ignore the parts I don't like."

Okay, fair enough, I guess.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Contrary to what some posters here apparently believe, polling shows that the "median" position on abortion is not "let the states decide whatever they want," but rather "no bans before viability." The original Roe decision reflects the latter position.

If you ask whether abortion should be legal before viability, a majority will say yes. But if you ask whether abortion should be legal in the second trimester, a majority will say no.

Not doubting you, but can you share the polls you’re referring to for the second statement?

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321143/americans-stand-abortion.aspx

When asked about the legality of abortion at different stages of pregnancy, about two-thirds of Americans say it should be legal in the first trimester (69%), while support drops to 37% for the second trimester and 22% for the third. Majorities oppose abortion being legal in the second (55%) and third (70%) trimesters.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Contrary to what some posters here apparently believe, polling shows that the "median" position on abortion is not "let the states decide whatever they want," but rather "no bans before viability." The original Roe decision reflects the latter position.

If you ask whether abortion should be legal before viability, a majority will say yes. But if you ask whether abortion should be legal in the second trimester, a majority will say no.

Not doubting you, but can you share the polls you’re referring to for the second statement?

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321143/americans-stand-abortion.aspx

When asked about the legality of abortion at different stages of pregnancy, about two-thirds of Americans say it should be legal in the first trimester (69%), while support drops to 37% for the second trimester and 22% for the third. Majorities oppose abortion being legal in the second (55%) and third (70%) trimesters.

I really don't trust polling on this issue. Sure, it's easy to say you oppose abortion. But, as referenda would seem to suggest, many of those same people get cold feet when they're in the voting booth and deciding whether it should be a crime. Even Montana shockingly rejected a "born-alive" law, and Kansas defeated an anti-abortion amendment by a comfortable margin. Outside the Deep South, the anti-abortion position is very unpopular.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Post-Dobbs, I thimk it’s basically impossible for a Democrat to be too pro-choice, or to talk about abortion too much.  Guaranteeing a national right to abortion should really be much more central to Biden’s campaign, as should restructuring the judiciary.

[TheReckoning]

People saying “Dems are basically all pro-choice/pro-life Dems will vote Democratic anyways” are missing the point. There is a huge pro-life population of this country who is not strongly affiliated with any party. These are the voters Democrats risk pushing into the arms of Republicans this election if they make abortion their rallying cry.

[Brittain33]

People saying “Dems are basically all pro-choice/pro-life Dems will vote Democratic anyways” are missing the point. There is a huge pro-life population of this country who is not strongly affiliated with any party. These are the voters Democrats risk pushing into the arms of Republicans this election if they make abortion their rallying cry.

How did those people vote in referenda on abortion in Kansas, Kentucky, and Michigan, in your reckoning?

[wnwnwn]

Look at the CDs that voted for Trump by margins under 10% in 2020.
Maybe SC-01 leans anti-abortion, but unitying the pro-choicers and the pro-life loyal democrat blacks you can likely get a coalition that could win in case of a blue wave.

[Skill and Chance]

People saying “Dems are basically all pro-choice/pro-life Dems will vote Democratic anyways” are missing the point. There is a huge pro-life population of this country who is not strongly affiliated with any party. These are the voters Democrats risk pushing into the arms of Republicans this election if they make abortion their rallying cry.

How did those people vote in referenda on abortion in Kansas, Kentucky, and Michigan, in your reckoning?

I think he would argue these are people who generally only vote in presidential elections, and almost surely not in off-year midsummer stuff (e.g. Kansas and Ohio).  Just because anti-Obamacare people turned out like mad in 2010 didn't make them decisive in 2012.  The test would be whether any of the abortion referenda this fall get close to generic D vs. generic R numbers for the state.