MA GOP has no candidate in 7 of 9 House districts
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 24, 2024, 05:07:15 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, VirginiŠ, Gracile)
  MA GOP has no candidate in 7 of 9 House districts
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: MA GOP has no candidate in 7 of 9 House districts  (Read 1011 times)
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,733
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 10, 2024, 09:03:12 PM »

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/candidates2024.htm#state-primary-republican

Quote
Filing Deadlines

    District & County Candidates: May 28, 2024
    Federal Party Candidates: June 4, 2024
    Federal Non-Party Candidates: August 27, 2024


Representative in Congress
First District
No Nominations

Second District
No Nominations

Third District
No Nominations

Fourth District
No Nominations

Fifth District
No Nominations

Sixth District
No Nominations

Seventh District
No Nominations

Eighth District
Robert G. Burke, 98 Taylor Ave., Dedham
James M. Govatsos, 44 Old Post Rd., Walpole
Daniel Kelly, 266 West Broadway, Boston

Ninth District
Dan Sullivan, 38 Cape Cod Ave., Plymouth

Filing deadline for party listing in the state primary was June 4th,  Republicans did not file any candidate in 7 of 9 US House districts in Massachusetts.  In 2022 they filed in 8 of 9, with a weak write-in campaign in MA-4.

I think this is one of the worst showings in a state primary for the US House in quite a while.  It's like the whole state party just gave up or something.  MA-8 is one of the more Dem seats in the state too.
Logged
Thank you for being a friend...
progressive85
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,417
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2024, 04:28:20 AM »

It's got to be one of the few states where you'll hear old white men talk about him as if he was, well exactly what he is - Crazy, a clown, a phony, a narcissist, a con man, a snake oil salesman, a nutjob, and an all-around unlikable guy not worth their time.  Even if he wins big, he'll lose bigger here.

Joe Biden isn't exactly beloved, but whatever keeps Crazy Cheeto away from the White House is sufficient for the rank and file Massachusetts voter.

Massachusetts has had the largest House delegation (9-0) that is completely of one party since I believe 1996.  If the Republicans in Tennessee were able to split up Memphis to get rid of Steve Cohen, they'd also have that.

Also what's weird is that there's a lot of rural area in the western part of the state and much of it is very blue on the map.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,359
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2024, 05:41:21 AM »

This doesn't surprise me. If there is a red wave, it won't make landfall here.
Logged
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,152


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2024, 07:56:24 AM »

Every district seems to have a rep that's well-suited for them too. The Dems picked good moderate Reps in any district where the Republicans could make inroads.
Logged
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,549
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2024, 09:51:47 AM »

This is not really surprising. As much as Massachusetts is a safely Democratic state, a lot of that party’s dominance is due to the fact the Republican Party doesn’t really exist as such. It’s more like an occasional vehicle for a rich dude to run for statewide office.
Logged
Spectator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,615
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2024, 10:01:22 AM »

The Massachusetts Dems are, along with maybe the Minnesota Dems if you count MN as a blue state, the most dominant blue-state Dem Party. Compare to California where you routinely have candidates that severely underperform Presidential numbers.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,349
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2024, 10:02:37 AM »

The Massachusetts Dems are, along with maybe the Minnesota Dems if you count MN as a blue state, the most dominant blue-state Dem Party. Compare to California where you routinely have candidates that severely underperform Presidential numbers.
Hawaii Dems: Am I a joke to you?
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,551


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2024, 10:24:32 AM »

Isnít this what usually happens in the MA House races?
Logged
The Arizonan
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,598
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2024, 10:48:44 AM »

I wonder if itís possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.
Logged
Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,444
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2024, 10:55:20 AM »

I wonder if itís possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

It would require ridiculous precinct splitting and highway connections to draw anything that was contiguous and remotely reliable for Republicans.
Logged
Duke of York
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,170


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2024, 11:05:12 AM »

ridiculous. No general election should be uncontested.
Logged
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,152


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2024, 12:11:29 PM »

ridiculous. No general election should be uncontested.

None of them are technically uncontested thanks to third parties.
Logged
Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,592


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2024, 12:27:04 PM »

It's got to be one of the few states where you'll hear old white men talk about him as if he was, well exactly what he is - Crazy, a clown, a phony, a narcissist, a con man, a snake oil salesman, a nutjob, and an all-around unlikable guy not worth their time.

It is. Purple heart my uncle.

I wonder if itís possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

I tried this once years ago. It is possible, but the resulting district is a monstrosity similar to the districts in Maryland in the 2010s or Illinois now, and it's still only slightly Republican-leaning.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,284


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2024, 12:45:20 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2024, 12:52:05 PM by Fmr. Gov. NickG »


I wonder if itís possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

I tried this once years ago. It is possible, but the resulting district is a monstrosity similar to the districts in Maryland in the 2010s or Illinois now, and it's still only slightly Republican-leaning.

I published an article in Legislative Studies Quarterly earlier this year that basically addresses exactly this question.  We use multi-objective hill-climbing algorithms to simulate partisan gerrymanders for both parties in 36 states.  Itís in an academic journal, but published under open-access, so anyone can read it here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/lsq.12448

Massachusetts and Connecticut are true outliers in being the only states where it is basically impossible to draw a Republican gerrymander, with MA being the worst by a good margin.  The best Republican maps in MA almost always draw 2 toss-up districts and 7 safely Dem districts.
Logged
Roll Roons
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,158
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2024, 01:02:11 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2024, 01:05:57 PM by Roll Roons »


I wonder if it’s possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

I tried this once years ago. It is possible, but the resulting district is a monstrosity similar to the districts in Maryland in the 2010s or Illinois now, and it's still only slightly Republican-leaning.

I published an article in Legislative Studies Quarterly earlier this year that basically addresses exactly this question.  We use multi-objective hill-climbing algorithms to simulate partisan gerrymanders for both parties in 36 states.  It’s in an academic journal, but published under open-access, so anyone can read it here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/lsq.12448

Massachusetts and Connecticut are true outliers in being the only states where it is basically impossible to draw a Republican gerrymander, with MA being the worst by a good margin.  The best Republican maps in MA almost always draw 2 toss-up districts and 7 safely Dem districts.

It's probably not possible to draw an outright Republican-leaning district in CT without some very tortured lines, but a more compact version of CT-05 would be perennially competitive and probably would have elected George Logan last cycle.
Logged
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,209
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2024, 02:15:19 PM »

They have one in the 4th Smiley
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,284


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2024, 02:16:04 PM »


I wonder if itís possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

I tried this once years ago. It is possible, but the resulting district is a monstrosity similar to the districts in Maryland in the 2010s or Illinois now, and it's still only slightly Republican-leaning.

I published an article in Legislative Studies Quarterly earlier this year that basically addresses exactly this question.  We use multi-objective hill-climbing algorithms to simulate partisan gerrymanders for both parties in 36 states.  Itís in an academic journal, but published under open-access, so anyone can read it here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/lsq.12448

Massachusetts and Connecticut are true outliers in being the only states where it is basically impossible to draw a Republican gerrymander, with MA being the worst by a good margin.  The best Republican maps in MA almost always draw 2 toss-up districts and 7 safely Dem districts.

It's probably not possible to draw an outright Republican-leaning district in CT without some very tortured lines, but a more compact version of CT-05 would be perennially competitive and probably would have elected George Logan last cycle.

It actually isnít that hard to draw a single Republican-leaning CD in northwest CT.  Itís the rest of the state thatís a problem for Republicans.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,484
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2024, 04:09:32 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2024, 04:27:58 PM by Schiff for Senate »

The Wikipedia infobox with the popular vote is going to be absolutely insane to look at.

It's got to be one of the few states where you'll hear old white men talk about him as if he was, well exactly what he is - Crazy, a clown, a phony, a narcissist, a con man, a snake oil salesman, a nutjob, and an all-around unlikable guy not worth their time.  Even if he wins big, he'll lose bigger here.

Joe Biden isn't exactly beloved, but whatever keeps Crazy Cheeto away from the White House is sufficient for the rank and file Massachusetts voter.

Massachusetts has had the largest House delegation (9-0) that is completely of one party since I believe 1996.  If the Republicans in Tennessee were able to split up Memphis to get rid of Steve Cohen, they'd also have that.

Also what's weird is that there's a lot of rural area in the western part of the state and much of it is very blue on the map.

Interesting point right there. The runner up to MA, btw, is OK (5-0 R). And much as they may want to, there is no chance the GOP can split up Cohen's Memphis district - it's the perfect vote sink, and if they tried cracking it up, it'd produce 2 (or possibly 3) swing districts. Not to mention it would run absolutely afoul of the VRA, so while that's still standing, the seat is safe.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,484
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2024, 04:16:45 PM »

Every district seems to have a rep that's well-suited for them too. The Dems picked good moderate Reps in any district where the Republicans could make inroads.

Here's the thing, MA is extremely democratic all around the state. It's no exaggeration to say that even in a 1994 style GOP wave no Democrats here would be in trouble (in fact, 1994 was the last time the state elected a single Republican to the House, and the last regular election cycle that any Republican got sent to Congress).

Even VT, which voted to the left of MA in 2020, has a few areas the lean Republican on balance (Essex County votes R, and the surrounding counties have a decent GOP floor too). But in MA, every county and every CD is not just Democratic but decisively so.

The most Republican county, Bristol, was Biden+12.
The most Republican CD, the 9th, was Biden+18.

For God's sake -- even every State Senate district (there are 40 of them) voted for Biden (the most Republican, D7, was Biden+3).

I don't think any other state in the country (except for HI, maybe, and we don't count HI) is so universally Democratic/Republican.

Even WV has some areas of Democratic strength (4 of the State House districts gave Biden over 60%, and two others voted for him more narrowly). Hell, even Wyoming has places like Teton and Albany Counties.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,484
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2024, 04:22:07 PM »

Isnít this what usually happens in the MA House races?

7 out of 9 uncontested races is still absolutely insane. Idt 7 uncontested races on the GOP side has even happened in much larger delegations like NY and CA in a while (on the other side of the aisle, TX had 8 seats that Dems didn't contest, plus a couple the GOP didn't contest, back in 2016).
Logged
Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,444
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 11, 2024, 04:58:54 PM »

Every district seems to have a rep that's well-suited for them too. The Dems picked good moderate Reps in any district where the Republicans could make inroads.

McGovern is very, very progressive for Worcester, but he's been there so long he's totally entrenched, and also adding places like Amherst and Northampton helps him where he may have some weaknesses in the rural parts of central MA in his district (also helping him is the light red rurals between Worcester and Springfield are split between his district and Neal's).
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,284


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2024, 03:06:19 PM »
« Edited: June 12, 2024, 03:10:32 PM by Fmr. Gov. NickG »

Here's an example of a "Republican gerrymander" of Massachusetts generated by our algorithm (blue is Democratic, purple is toss-up, red is Republican):



By contrast, here's a Republican gerrymander of Maryland, a similarly Democratic state where the demographic distribution makes it much easier to create four Republican districts:



Note that in each case, these are generated using a multiple objective function which also attempts to draw relatively compact districts.  We've also generated partisan gerrymanders with no compactness consideration, but they tend to look crazy and don't really do much better at achieving the partisan objective anyway.

Oklahoma is indeed basically a mirror image of Massachusetts, where the homogeneity of the partisan distribution makes it almost impossible to draw a true Democratic gerrymander.  The best Dem gerrymanders only succeed at creating a single toss-up district:




Logged
Duke of York
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,170


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2024, 07:02:42 PM »

ridiculous. No general election should be uncontested.

None of them are technically uncontested thanks to third parties.

Good. no one should in a general election unopposed.
Logged
GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2024, 09:10:03 PM »

ridiculous. No general election should be uncontested.

None of them are technically uncontested thanks to third parties.

Good. no one should in a general election unopposed.

this is why I ran in 2022
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,484
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2024, 01:32:42 PM »
« Edited: June 14, 2024, 01:35:53 PM by Schiff for Senate »

Oklahoma is indeed basically a mirror image of Massachusetts, where the homogeneity of the partisan distribution makes it almost impossible to draw a true Democratic gerrymander.  The best Dem gerrymanders only succeed at creating a single toss-up district:






No, not quite. OK still has a solid Democratic base in OKC. There is no equivalent of that for MA Republicans.

This is especially true if you divide the states into equal proportions. Think about it this way: MA has 9 districts and it's still impossible to get a single really competitive seat. If OK had 9 districts, there'd most likely be one seat that would be not just competitive but solidly Democratic.

Better Republican equivalent of MA is like WV imo, with WY as a runner up. Maybe the Dakotas but tbh that's probably pushing it.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.068 seconds with 12 queries.