MA GOP has no candidate in 7 of 9 House districts

[Nyvin]

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/candidates2024.htm#state-primary-republican

Filing Deadlines

    District & County Candidates: May 28, 2024
    Federal Party Candidates: June 4, 2024
    Federal Non-Party Candidates: August 27, 2024


Representative in Congress
First District
No Nominations

Second District
No Nominations

Third District
No Nominations

Fourth District
No Nominations

Fifth District
No Nominations

Sixth District
No Nominations

Seventh District
No Nominations

Eighth District
Robert G. Burke, 98 Taylor Ave., Dedham
James M. Govatsos, 44 Old Post Rd., Walpole
Daniel Kelly, 266 West Broadway, Boston

Ninth District
Dan Sullivan, 38 Cape Cod Ave., Plymouth

Filing deadline for party listing in the state primary was June 4th,  Republicans did not file any candidate in 7 of 9 US House districts in Massachusetts.  In 2022 they filed in 8 of 9, with a weak write-in campaign in MA-4.

I think this is one of the worst showings in a state primary for the US House in quite a while.  It's like the whole state party just gave up or something.  MA-8 is one of the more Dem seats in the state too.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

It's got to be one of the few states where you'll hear old white men talk about him as if he was, well exactly what he is - Crazy, a clown, a phony, a narcissist, a con man, a snake oil salesman, a nutjob, and an all-around unlikable guy not worth their time.  Even if he wins big, he'll lose bigger here.

Joe Biden isn't exactly beloved, but whatever keeps Crazy Cheeto away from the White House is sufficient for the rank and file Massachusetts voter.

Massachusetts has had the largest House delegation (9-0) that is completely of one party since I believe 1996.  If the Republicans in Tennessee were able to split up Memphis to get rid of Steve Cohen, they'd also have that.

Also what's weird is that there's a lot of rural area in the western part of the state and much of it is very blue on the map.

[SnowLabrador]

This doesn't surprise me. If there is a red wave, it won't make landfall here.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Every district seems to have a rep that's well-suited for them too. The Dems picked good moderate Reps in any district where the Republicans could make inroads.

[Senator Incitatus]

This is not really surprising. As much as Massachusetts is a safely Democratic state, a lot of that party’s dominance is due to the fact the Republican Party doesn’t really exist as such. It’s more like an occasional vehicle for a rich dude to run for statewide office.

[Spectator]

The Massachusetts Dems are, along with maybe the Minnesota Dems if you count MN as a blue state, the most dominant blue-state Dem Party. Compare to California where you routinely have candidates that severely underperform Presidential numbers.

[Punxsutawney Phil]

The Massachusetts Dems are, along with maybe the Minnesota Dems if you count MN as a blue state, the most dominant blue-state Dem Party. Compare to California where you routinely have candidates that severely underperform Presidential numbers.

Hawaii Dems: Am I a joke to you?

[Mr.Phips]

Isn’t this what usually happens in the MA House races?

[The Arizonan]

I wonder if it’s possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I wonder if it’s possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

It would require ridiculous precinct splitting and highway connections to draw anything that was contiguous and remotely reliable for Republicans.

[Duke of York]

ridiculous. No general election should be uncontested.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

ridiculous. No general election should be uncontested.

None of them are technically uncontested thanks to third parties.

[US Medieval Italy Crowned Republic Era]

It's got to be one of the few states where you'll hear old white men talk about him as if he was, well exactly what he is - Crazy, a clown, a phony, a narcissist, a con man, a snake oil salesman, a nutjob, and an all-around unlikable guy not worth their time.

It is. my uncle.

I wonder if it’s possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

I tried this once years ago. It is possible, but the resulting district is a monstrosity similar to the districts in Maryland in the 2010s or Illinois now, and it's still only slightly Republican-leaning.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I wonder if it’s possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

I tried this once years ago. It is possible, but the resulting district is a monstrosity similar to the districts in Maryland in the 2010s or Illinois now, and it's still only slightly Republican-leaning.

I published an article in Legislative Studies Quarterly earlier this year that basically addresses exactly this question.  We use multi-objective hill-climbing algorithms to simulate partisan gerrymanders for both parties in 36 states.  It’s in an academic journal, but published under open-access, so anyone can read it here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/lsq.12448

Massachusetts and Connecticut are true outliers in being the only states where it is basically impossible to draw a Republican gerrymander, with MA being the worst by a good margin.  The best Republican maps in MA almost always draw 2 toss-up districts and 7 safely Dem districts.

[Roll Roons]

I wonder if it’s possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

I tried this once years ago. It is possible, but the resulting district is a monstrosity similar to the districts in Maryland in the 2010s or Illinois now, and it's still only slightly Republican-leaning.

I published an article in Legislative Studies Quarterly earlier this year that basically addresses exactly this question.  We use multi-objective hill-climbing algorithms to simulate partisan gerrymanders for both parties in 36 states.  It’s in an academic journal, but published under open-access, so anyone can read it here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/lsq.12448

Massachusetts and Connecticut are true outliers in being the only states where it is basically impossible to draw a Republican gerrymander, with MA being the worst by a good margin.  The best Republican maps in MA almost always draw 2 toss-up districts and 7 safely Dem districts.

It's probably not possible to draw an outright Republican-leaning district in CT without some very tortured lines, but a more compact version of CT-05 would be perennially competitive and probably would have elected George Logan last cycle.

[#BernieBros4Kamala]

They have one in the 4th

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I wonder if it’s possible to draw a Republican-leaning district in Massachusetts with a computer.

I tried this once years ago. It is possible, but the resulting district is a monstrosity similar to the districts in Maryland in the 2010s or Illinois now, and it's still only slightly Republican-leaning.

I published an article in Legislative Studies Quarterly earlier this year that basically addresses exactly this question.  We use multi-objective hill-climbing algorithms to simulate partisan gerrymanders for both parties in 36 states.  It’s in an academic journal, but published under open-access, so anyone can read it here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/lsq.12448

Massachusetts and Connecticut are true outliers in being the only states where it is basically impossible to draw a Republican gerrymander, with MA being the worst by a good margin.  The best Republican maps in MA almost always draw 2 toss-up districts and 7 safely Dem districts.

It's probably not possible to draw an outright Republican-leaning district in CT without some very tortured lines, but a more compact version of CT-05 would be perennially competitive and probably would have elected George Logan last cycle.

It actually isn’t that hard to draw a single Republican-leaning CD in northwest CT.  It’s the rest of the state that’s a problem for Republicans.

[CentristRepublican]

The Wikipedia infobox with the popular vote is going to be absolutely insane to look at.

It's got to be one of the few states where you'll hear old white men talk about him as if he was, well exactly what he is - Crazy, a clown, a phony, a narcissist, a con man, a snake oil salesman, a nutjob, and an all-around unlikable guy not worth their time.  Even if he wins big, he'll lose bigger here.

Joe Biden isn't exactly beloved, but whatever keeps Crazy Cheeto away from the White House is sufficient for the rank and file Massachusetts voter.

Massachusetts has had the largest House delegation (9-0) that is completely of one party since I believe 1996.  If the Republicans in Tennessee were able to split up Memphis to get rid of Steve Cohen, they'd also have that.

Also what's weird is that there's a lot of rural area in the western part of the state and much of it is very blue on the map.

Interesting point right there. The runner up to MA, btw, is OK (5-0 R). And much as they may want to, there is no chance the GOP can split up Cohen's Memphis district - it's the perfect vote sink, and if they tried cracking it up, it'd produce 2 (or possibly 3) swing districts. Not to mention it would run absolutely afoul of the VRA, so while that's still standing, the seat is safe.

[CentristRepublican]

Every district seems to have a rep that's well-suited for them too. The Dems picked good moderate Reps in any district where the Republicans could make inroads.

Here's the thing, MA is extremely democratic all around the state. It's no exaggeration to say that even in a 1994 style GOP wave no Democrats here would be in trouble (in fact, 1994 was the last time the state elected a single Republican to the House, and the last regular election cycle that any Republican got sent to Congress).

Even VT, which voted to the left of MA in 2020, has a few areas the lean Republican on balance (Essex County votes R, and the surrounding counties have a decent GOP floor too). But in MA, every county and every CD is not just Democratic but decisively so.

The most Republican county, Bristol, was Biden+12.
The most Republican CD, the 9th, was Biden+18.

For God's sake -- even every State Senate district (there are 40 of them) voted for Biden (the most Republican, D7, was Biden+3).

I don't think any other state in the country (except for HI, maybe, and we don't count HI) is so universally Democratic/Republican.

Even WV has some areas of Democratic strength (4 of the State House districts gave Biden over 60%, and two others voted for him more narrowly). Hell, even Wyoming has places like Teton and Albany Counties.

[CentristRepublican]

Isn’t this what usually happens in the MA House races?

7 out of 9 uncontested races is still absolutely insane. Idt 7 uncontested races on the GOP side has even happened in much larger delegations like NY and CA in a while (on the other side of the aisle, TX had 8 seats that Dems didn't contest, plus a couple the GOP didn't contest, back in 2016).

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Every district seems to have a rep that's well-suited for them too. The Dems picked good moderate Reps in any district where the Republicans could make inroads.

McGovern is very, very progressive for Worcester, but he's been there so long he's totally entrenched, and also adding places like Amherst and Northampton helps him where he may have some weaknesses in the rural parts of central MA in his district (also helping him is the light red rurals between Worcester and Springfield are split between his district and Neal's).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here's an example of a "Republican gerrymander" of Massachusetts generated by our algorithm (blue is Democratic, purple is toss-up, red is Republican):



By contrast, here's a Republican gerrymander of Maryland, a similarly Democratic state where the demographic distribution makes it much easier to create four Republican districts:



Note that in each case, these are generated using a multiple objective function which also attempts to draw relatively compact districts.  We've also generated partisan gerrymanders with no compactness consideration, but they tend to look crazy and don't really do much better at achieving the partisan objective anyway.

Oklahoma is indeed basically a mirror image of Massachusetts, where the homogeneity of the partisan distribution makes it almost impossible to draw a true Democratic gerrymander.  The best Dem gerrymanders only succeed at creating a single toss-up district:

[Duke of York]

ridiculous. No general election should be uncontested.

None of them are technically uncontested thanks to third parties.

Good. no one should in a general election unopposed.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

ridiculous. No general election should be uncontested.

None of them are technically uncontested thanks to third parties.

Good. no one should in a general election unopposed.

this is why I ran in 2022

[CentristRepublican]

Oklahoma is indeed basically a mirror image of Massachusetts, where the homogeneity of the partisan distribution makes it almost impossible to draw a true Democratic gerrymander.  The best Dem gerrymanders only succeed at creating a single toss-up district:

No, not quite. OK still has a solid Democratic base in OKC. There is no equivalent of that for MA Republicans.

This is especially true if you divide the states into equal proportions. Think about it this way: MA has 9 districts and it's still impossible to get a single really competitive seat. If OK had 9 districts, there'd most likely be one seat that would be not just competitive but solidly Democratic.

Better Republican equivalent of MA is like WV imo, with WY as a runner up. Maybe the Dakotas but tbh that's probably pushing it.