French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[OSR stands with Israel]

Macron should stay out of the 2nd round . The RN is the lesser evil compared to the left

Push comes to shove you’d back fascist before the left

Le Pen kicked AFD out , and kicked her own father from the party

[Mike88]

BFMTV projection: 290-320 "triangular" runoffs before possible withdraws.

[Logical]

Nord-20 96% counted
Florquin (RN) 49.93%
Roussel (NFP, PCF leader) 31.4%
Vervandier (ENS) 10,72%

[Storr]

"Edouard Philippe calls on the Horizons candidates who came third to withdraw to avoid the election of RN or LFI deputies"

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1644128

There we go:

"Ensemble calls on its candidates who came 3rd to withdraw “for the benefit of candidates able to beat the RN and with whom we share the essential: the values ​​of the Republic”"

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1644218

[President Johnson]

BFMTV projection: 290-320 "triangular" runoffs before possible withdraws.

Massive own goal by Macron, if that becomes true. I guess his calculation might even have been to have a RN government that becomes unpopular by 2027 and a sane candidate is elected to succeed him.

[ajc0918]

"Edouard Philippe calls on the Horizons candidates who came third to withdraw to avoid the election of RN or LFI deputies"

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1644128

There we go:

"Ensemble calls on its candidates who came 3rd to withdraw “for the benefit of candidates able to beat the RN and with whom we share the essential: the values ​​of the Republic”"

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1644218

Does doing this ensure NF doesn't get an governing majority?

[Oryxslayer]

So barring egos, there will only be three-ways between if two of the parties are LFI and RN.

[Logical]

So barring egos, there will only be three-ways between if two of the parties are LFI and RN.

Technically NFP and ENS candidates are only asked to withdraw if they come third. So if RN comes third then triangulaires will still happen. Not many constituencies where this will occur however.

[SunSt0rm]

Hollande district will be one of the district I guess that will have a Triangulaire

[Storr]

Nord-20 96% counted
Florquin (RN) 49.93%
Roussel (NFP, PCF leader) 31.4%
Vervandier (ENS) 10,72%

"“Many of you will be disappointed by the national results and also the results in this constituency where, as in many constituencies in our department, the National Rally candidate won in the first round, achieving 50.3%. votes ,” declared Mr. Roussel."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2024/06/30/fabien-roussel-patron-du-parti-communiste-elimine-des-le-premier-tour-des-elections-legislatives_6245602_823448.html

[jaichind]

So barring egos, there will only be three-ways between if two of the parties are LFI and RN.

Hard to see a RN bloc majority if that is how it plays out.

[Logical]

We have a quadrangular!!!!!
Vendée-4
Besse (DVD) 39. 31%
Proux (RN) 22.88%
Nagnonhou (ENS) 18.46%
Godard (NFP) 18.42%

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/52/85/8504/index.html

Another one
Finistère-8
Perez (RN) 30.80%
Balanant (ENS) 27.76%
Miossec (DVG) 22.17%
Le Bon (NFP) 18.12%

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/53/29/2908/index.html

[jaichind]

We have a quadranglular!!!!!
Vendée-4
Besse (DVD) 39. 31%
Proux (RN) 22.88%
Nagnonhou (ENS) 18.46%
Godard (NFP) 18.42%

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/52/85/8504/index.html

So in theory ENS and NFP will withdraw since both came in 3rd or worse right ?

[Oryxslayer]

So barring egos, there will only be three-ways between if two of the parties are LFI and RN.

Hard to see a RN bloc majority if that is how it plays out.

I think it doesn't really matter now how many candidates drop. The fact that almost everyone including Macron has made these statements of "all against RN unless LFI" has now primed voters to behave that way. This is what I meant by how voting behavior can shift in the runoff environment. With only a week until the runoff that is likely to be the sole marching order. Of course not every voter will follow their leaders, and RN still have strong leads in enough areas to end up #1, but I think the chaos scenario of nobody close to a majority is now very likely.

It's like the Lib-Dem bar chart meme except round 1 is unchangeable evidence, so you now know exactly what to do.

[jaichind]

Well, hopefully Macron's plan all along was in fact actually for RN to win and for them to fail in government and become unpopular as a result.

And hopefully he is enough of a super-genius to ensure that actually happens, rather than this backfiring disastrously.

I am pretty sure his plan was to have an alliance between ENS and non-LFI Left on the first round to win the election.

[Storr]

"Republicans do not give voting instructions for the second round

"We are fighting the excesses of a far left dominated by La France Insoumise, which wants to demolish our institutions, deconstruct our civilization, and which represents an absolute danger for our country." the Les Républicains party said in a statement. "The National Rally is not the solution for France either, because its demagogic program will lead to chaos and the impoverishment of our country." the text added, affirming that it would let "the French express themselves in conscience.""

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1643757

"From Nice, where he is a candidate for re-election, the contested president of the Republicans, Eric Ciotti, welcomed a result which is "already a huge success" after the coalition he formed with the RN obtained 34% of the votes. “The unprecedented and historic union that we built with Jordan Bardella put an end to too many years of inaction which relegated the right to the role of helpless spectator of French decline ,” he added. For the outgoing MP, “victory is in sight to bring Jordan Bardella to Matignon” , before calling on LR leaders and voters to “follow the path of unity that [he] opened” .

"The Republicans cannot abstain in this second round, they must participate in the victory of the entire right ," he continued, while the LR leaders, who opposed Mr. Ciotti in his alliance with the RN, refuse to give voting instructions. "The situation is serious tonight, France, democracy and our institutions could be in danger tomorrow if the extreme left were to seize power in an unnatural alliance ," he warned."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1644370

[Logical]

Better results site : https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/elections/resultats

[axiomsofdominion]

Greens on TV saying Melenchon absolutely won't be in charge if they win.

[jaichind]

RN bloc campaign slogan for the second round: Stop the installation of a LFI PM

[Red Velvet]

So barring egos, there will only be three-ways between if two of the parties are LFI and RN.

Technically NFP and ENS candidates are only asked to withdraw if they come third. So if RN comes third then triangulaires will still happen. Not many constituencies where this will occur however.

Happens quite often in Bretagne only, I think.

The risk is dividing the vote and losing to RN what would be an easy win. There are more than one case in Bretagne where it’s like:

Melenchon - 31%
Macron - 31%
Le Pen - 26%

Also one where it goes:

Macron - 30%
Melenchon - 27%
Le Pen - 26%

(i know they aren’t the candidates, just put them representing their party coalition)

[Logical]

PCF leader Roussel lost his seat in the final results. This seat has been held by PCF since 1962.

Florquin (RN) 50.30%
Roussel (NFP, PCF leader) 31.19%
Vervandier (ENS) 10.57%
Gondy (UDI) 6.51%

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

So what happens now? Macron resigns?

French politics is weird and confusing.

[axiomsofdominion]

So what happens now? Macron resigns?

French politics is weird and confusing.

No Macron stays in power till 2027.

[Storr]

So what happens now? Macron resigns?

French politics is weird and confusing.

The second round happens on July 7th.

[Oryxslayer]

So what happens now? Macron resigns?

French politics is weird and confusing.

No...unless he does another about face. France is closer to the American system than a parliamentary one. If anything, he can force everyone elected next week to resign and run again if he so desires, after a years wait.