How many NFL/MLB/NBA/NHL stadium counties does Trump win?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump 2020 Counties:
Brown, WI (Green Bay Packers)
Oklahoma, OK (Oklahoma City Thunder)

Biden flipped the following that Trump won in 2016:
Maricopa, AZ (Arizona Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Suns, former Arizona Coyotes)
Tarrant, TX (Dallas Cowboys, Texas Rangers)
Pinellas, FL (Tampa Bay Rays)
Duval, FL (Jacksonville Jaguars)

The following went Republican as recently as 2012:
Orange, CA (Los Angeles Angels, Anaheim Ducks)
Salt Lake, UT (Utah Jazz, new Utah hockey team)
Cobb, GA (Atlanta Braves)

The following additional counties are plausibly competitive:
Miami-Dade, FL (Miami Dolphins, Miami Marlins, Miami Heat)
Clark, NV (Las Vegas Raiders, Vegas Golden Knights, future Las Vegas A's)
Hillsborough, FL (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tampa Bay Lightning)
Nassau, NY (New York Islanders)
Harris, TX (Houston Texans, Houston Astros, Houston Rockets)...this is a borderline inclusion on this list

Maybe you could argue to include Erie NY, Bexar TX, and Orange FL, but those seem like real long-shots.

[THKL]

Trump 2020 Counties:
Brown, WI (Green Bay Packers)
Oklahoma, OK (Oklahoma City Thunder)

Biden flipped the following that Trump won in 2016:
Maricopa, AZ (Arizona Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Suns, former Arizona Coyotes)
Tarrant, TX (Dallas Cowboys, Texas Rangers)
Pinellas, FL (Tampa Bay Rays)
Duval, FL (Jacksonville Jaguars)

The following went Republican as recently as 2012:
Orange, CA (Los Angeles Angels, Anaheim Ducks)
Salt Lake, UT (Utah Jazz, new Utah hockey team)
Cobb, GA (Atlanta Braves)

The following additional counties are plausibly competitive:
Miami-Dade, FL (Miami Dolphins, Miami Marlins, Miami Heat)
Clark, NV (Las Vegas Raiders, Vegas Golden Knights, future Las Vegas A's)
Hillsborough, FL (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tampa Bay Lightning)
Nassau, NY (New York Islanders)
Harris, TX (Houston Texans, Houston Astros, Houston Rockets)...this is a borderline inclusion on this list

Maybe you could argue to include Erie NY, Bexar TX, and Orange FL, but those seem like real long-shots.

I’m currently projecting Trump to win 11 of these counties, due to holding Brown, WI, and Oklahoma, OK, along with flipping Orange, CA, Clark, NV, Maricopa, AZ, Tarrant, TX, Pinellas, FL, Hillsborough, FL, Duval, FL, Miami-Dade, FL, and Nassau, NY, with most of these flips driven by massive Republican swings amongst Hispanics, Asians, and Jews, Low Turnout amongst Young Progressives and Blacks, increased Third Party voting amongst Young Progressives, Non-Whites, and Never Trump Suburbanites, along with general Low Turnout and increased Third Party voting in Safe States, with this causing Trump to be more likely to win the Popular vote (~70% chance) then to win the Electoral College (~55% chance), 😂🤣!

[CheapDollarEra?]

Brown, WI
Duval, FL
Pinellas, FL

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump holds Brown and flips Pinellas and maybe Miami-Dade. That's about it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pinellas flips to Trump.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- He wins all but Cobb, Salt Lake, Pinellas, Clark and Nassau. Last 3 are close

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Hot take- He wins all but Cobb, Salt Lake, Pinellas, Clark and Nassau. Last 3 are close

Why would Trump win Hillsborough but lose Pinellas?  Pinellas feels like the easiest flip on the board here.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- He wins all but Cobb, Salt Lake, Pinellas, Clark and Nassau. Last 3 are close

Why would Trump win Hillsborough but lose Pinellas?  Pinellas feels like the easiest flip on the board here.

I think Hillsborough swings further right than Pinellas because it's more non white but your right lol

[pbrower2a]

I don't see him winning any of those counties except for Brown (WI) and Oklahoma (OK) unless he wins Arizona outright (which Maricopa dominates politically).


I'm surprised that Douglas NE -- Omaha, Travis TX (Austin), and El Paso TX (El Paso) have no major-league sports teams. All three would go for Biden.  I could imagine sports teams moving to Butler OH (to be a little closer to Dayton?), Hamilton IN (upscale suburbs of Indianapolis): both are Republican.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I'm surprised that Douglas NE -- Omaha, Travis TX (Austin), and El Paso TX (El Paso) have no major-league sports teams. All three would go for Biden.  I could imagine sports teams moving to Butler OH (to be a little closer to Dayton?), Hamilton IN (upscale suburbs of Indianapolis): both are Republican.

Why would Omaha or El Paso have major league sports teams lol?

[Bismarck]

I don't see him winning any of those counties except for Brown (WI) and Oklahoma (OK) unless he wins Arizona outright (which Maricopa dominates politically).


I'm surprised that Douglas NE -- Omaha, Travis TX (Austin), and El Paso TX (El Paso) have no major-league sports teams. All three would go for Biden.  I could imagine sports teams moving to Butler OH (to be a little closer to Dayton?), Hamilton IN (upscale suburbs of Indianapolis): both are Republican.

The city of Indianapolis has made downtown stadiums a part of its economic strategy for decades. The city and even the state wouldn’t let the pacers or colts leave downtown Indy.

[nclib]

Looks like:

Brown, WI (Green Bay Packers)
Oklahoma, OK (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Maricopa, AZ (Arizona Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Suns, former Arizona Coyotes)
Tarrant, TX (Dallas Cowboys, Texas Rangers)
Pinellas, FL (Tampa Bay Rays)
Duval, FL (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Miami-Dade, FL (Miami Dolphins, Miami Marlins, Miami Heat)
Hillsborough, FL (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tampa Bay Lightning)
Nassau, NY (New York Islanders)

More surprisingly, the only counties with a major league stadium to swing Dem were:

Cobb, GA (Atlanta suburb, not a center city)
Salt Lake, UT (Salt Lake City)
Multnomah, OR (Portland)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Looks like:

Brown, WI (Green Bay Packers)
Oklahoma, OK (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Maricopa, AZ (Arizona Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Suns, former Arizona Coyotes)
Tarrant, TX (Dallas Cowboys, Texas Rangers)
Pinellas, FL (Tampa Bay Rays)
Duval, FL (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Miami-Dade, FL (Miami Dolphins, Miami Marlins, Miami Heat)
Hillsborough, FL (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tampa Bay Lightning)
Nassau, NY (New York Islanders)

More surprisingly, the only counties with a major league stadium to swing Dem were:

Cobb, GA (Atlanta suburb, not a center city)
Salt Lake, UT (Salt Lake City)
Multnomah, OR (Portland)

This is the list, but I shockingly had to check what county East Rutherford, NJ is in.  Still, Bergen County is just Harris +3 and one of the more plausible 2028 flips on this list.

[New World Man]

The Milwaukee Bucks were seriously thinking of moving the new arena to Waukesha County(either Waukesha or Brookfield).Also,Green Bay itself votes Democrat.

[nclib]

Looks like:

Brown, WI (Green Bay Packers)
Oklahoma, OK (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Maricopa, AZ (Arizona Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Suns, former Arizona Coyotes)
Tarrant, TX (Dallas Cowboys, Texas Rangers)
Pinellas, FL (Tampa Bay Rays)
Duval, FL (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Miami-Dade, FL (Miami Dolphins, Miami Marlins, Miami Heat)
Hillsborough, FL (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tampa Bay Lightning)
Nassau, NY (New York Islanders)

More surprisingly, the only counties with a major league stadium to swing Dem were:

Cobb, GA (Atlanta suburb, not a center city)
Salt Lake, UT (Salt Lake City)
Multnomah, OR (Portland)

This is the list, but I shockingly had to check what county East Rutherford, NJ is in.  Still, Bergen County is just Harris +3 and one of the more plausible 2028 flips on this list.

Salt Lake, UT is now a right shift, meaning Portland is the only center city county to swing left.