What would convince you that Trump is favored to win?
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Author Topic: What would convince you that Trump is favored to win?  (Read 510 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: May 26, 2024, 12:53:38 AM »
What would convince you that Trump is favored to win the election?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2024, 02:24:44 AM »
If he is fav by 9 percent outside of NV we know NV has an R bias from 22 when the polls wrongly Pred a Laxalt win, that will convince alot of people esp Ds that Trump is fav
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2024, 05:00:01 AM »
I'm already convinced by the polling.
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2024, 06:07:12 AM »
It's lean Trump right now.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2024, 07:09:56 AM »

If not likely.
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Trans Rights Are Human Rights
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2024, 07:15:24 AM »
I'm convinced right now by gut feeling, but it won't stop me from fantasizing about a Brandon victory until the very end.
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PeteB
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2024, 12:18:43 PM »
For him to win, ALL of the following need to happen:

1. He is acquitted in the NY trial
2. He appoints Haley (or another non-sycophant female) as VP to bring in moderate Republicans and undecided voters
3. The economy shows further weakness (e.g. Fed has to intervene again, unemployment shoots up, bankruptcy of major corporations)
4. The Biden campaign has a major miss that captures the media (debate performance, health status of Biden, a scandal of some kind)
5. Gaza seriously splits the Democratic vote, helping Trump in places like MI or MN
6. Democratic turnout is severely deflated, compared to projections
7. Abortion and democracy are NOT a major issue in the campaign

This obviously equates to a perfect storm.  If any of these do not happen, Trump has no chance
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2024, 12:31:36 PM »
All his lead are within 2/3 pts lol
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2024, 12:37:16 PM »
All you have to do is look at Job Approvals - learnt in undergrad political science that that’s the best metric for presidential elections.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2024, 12:41:47 PM »
We still have to vote and yes we did well in 22 when Biden Approvals were low
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2024, 12:42:30 PM »
Quote from: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on May 26, 2024, 12:41:47 PM
We still have to vote and yes we did well in 22 when Biden Approvals were low

Biden. Was not. On. The ballot.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2024, 12:54:04 PM »
If he's maintaining leads in the polls come October.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2024, 01:11:39 PM »
Oh, I am totally convinced, unfortunately.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2024, 01:11:59 PM »
Quote from: Donald Trump’s Toupée on May 26, 2024, 12:42:30 PM
Quote from: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on May 26, 2024, 12:41:47 PM
We still have to vote and yes we did well in 22 when Biden Approvals were low

Biden. Was not. On. The ballot.

He was at 41 percent Approvals as they are now
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2024, 01:15:47 PM »
Yeah we are totally convinced that Trump will win, NOT
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2024, 01:17:50 PM »

Quote from: SnowLabrador on May 26, 2024, 05:00:01 AM
I'm already convinced by the polling.

Quote from: BlueSwan on May 26, 2024, 01:11:39 PM
Oh, I am totally convinced, unfortunately.

I intended this thread for people who don't believe he is favored now.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2024, 02:20:10 PM »
For the sun to rise tomorrow.
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HisGrace
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« Reply #17 on: May 26, 2024, 03:29:55 PM »
olawakandi changing his mind and announcing that the freiwall has been breached.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2024, 04:31:32 PM »
Common sense.

Some on here confuse what they want to happen from what WILL happen
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2024, 05:04:42 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on May 26, 2024, 04:31:32 PM
Common sense.

Some on here confuse what they want to happen from what WILL happen


Rerun, repeat, rerun didn't you say AZ was Lean R in 22 all your Pred in 22 were wrong we aren't gonna listen to you
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VALibertarian
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« Reply #20 on: May 27, 2024, 01:03:43 AM »
If the polling continues to bs the way that it is leading up to the election; ie: if Biden never gains the lead on RCP/538 and we still have Trump up in nearly every swing state going into November.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2024, 05:02:50 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2024, 06:35:42 AM by Meclazine for Israel »
If the red avatars' skin starts to crawl and they start having panic attacks in the USGD about seemingly inconsequential events.

We are in for a great 6 months of anxiety.
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Xing
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« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2024, 09:48:14 AM »
I do think he’s slightly favored. Nothing will convince me (nor should anyone else be convinced) that Trump “has it in the bag.”
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #23 on: May 27, 2024, 09:51:25 AM »
Quote from: Xing on May 27, 2024, 09:48:14 AM
I do think he’s slightly favored. Nothing will convince me (nor should anyone else be convinced) that Trump “has it in the bag.”

That's pretty much my position as well.

Nonetheless, if polling still looks the same into September and October, I'd be really worried.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #24 on: May 27, 2024, 10:22:42 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 27, 2024, 09:51:25 AM
Quote from: Xing on May 27, 2024, 09:48:14 AM
I do think he’s slightly favored. Nothing will convince me (nor should anyone else be convinced) that Trump “has it in the bag.”

That's pretty much my position as well.

Nonetheless, if polling still looks the same into September and October, I'd be really worried.


Lol all we need is NV, VA, CO, NM, MI, PA and WI and NH 275 that's it AZ, GA and NC are null and void Biden can surely win that
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