Hot take: much of rural white America swings/shifts left.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The hard rightwards shift we saw in most of rural America, particular the midwest was really what defined Trump's 2016 upset and this new era of politics.

However, I'm going to give a hot take that many of these same rural communities will swing or at least trend left in 2024. I'm going to list some pretty condensed reasons for why I could see this happening - if you'd like me to expand on any please just let me know in the thread.

1. Even though I'm more of a polling skeptic, polling suggests Biden is holding up with white voters much better relative to other groups.

2. In many rural white communities, particularly those in the South, the GOP is pretty close to mixed out and getting 90%+ of the vote in large swaths of precincts. If you expect the Country at large to shift right, some of these areas may trend left because they can't get much redder.

3. In the case of the upper midwest and northeast at least, many of these voters are decently liberal on a lot issues, particularly abortion as shown by recent ballot referendums. Relative to 2020 Pres, prop 3 (abortion) had some of it's biggest overperformances in rural northern MI for instance.

4. This only applies to a minority of rural communities, but some are seeing more liberal transplant types from some combination of tourism, retirees, and colleges - Colorado Western Slope, Cherry Coast in MI, Western NC, and many pockets of upstate NY fit into this category.

5. Rural America tends to skew older - a rightwards shift amongst young voters would be less pronounced in these communities, a leftwards shift amongst seniors would be more pronounced in theory.

6. In many of these small town or rural communities, local media still has decent influence you don't see in larger metro areas anymore. This might work in Biden's favor because local news is generally less chaotic/doomerish and more factual than many other forms of modern media.

7. Trump's campaign messaging differs quite a bit from 2016. In 2016 Trump placed a huge emphasis on WWC jobs going oversees for instance - today he doesn't use that sort of talking point as much, instead focusing on many culture war issues that may not be particularly salient in these rural communities. Cost of living is another big issue Republicans are attacking Biden for which again, may not be quite as salient in much of rural America.

8. On the flip side, some of Biden's biggest achievements are related to infrastructure that disproportionately impact these communities like broadband, some new factories, and so on, and a lot of his messaging seems more catered to these types of voters.

9. Democrats generally held up fine in rural America in 2022 (relative to 2020) - any large swings to the right were mostly due to turnout differentials between rural whites vs rural blacks/Hispanics.

No, Biden is not going to win Iowa and many of these places aren't going back to Obama levels of rural support anytime soon, but I could see large swaths of rural counties swinging a few % to the left, or perhaps staying neutral if the Country as a whole is swinging rightwards. Also rural America is pretty geopolitically diverse so no matter what, I'm pretty confident there are some rural communities that will buck trends. What do ya'll think?

[Progressive Pessimist]

If it does, alongside suburban educated whites, I think that's enough for Biden to win the same states again.

I don't know if that will be the case though. I highly doubt it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This Eday is gonna be over Oct 24 when all the Early vote come in and the R vote come in on Eday.

That's how votes are counted now Early D vote come in Oct and rural vote come in on same day

I am already contemplating Prez Newsom and D Congress in 26/28 the S map follows the 319 map

[Fusternino]

Wasn't this already true in 2020?

Anyways, Trump tends to absolutely crush it with that whole group of voters in the Midwest who are pro-choice but also massively into White grievance politics. Still, I expect there to be a leftwards trend compared to the rest of the country for many of the reasons you stated.

Something that goes understated is Trump's potential gains among non-White rural voters. We hear a lot about non-White urban voters, but there's massive potential upside for Trump with working class rural non-White men in the South and Southwest.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wasn't this already true in 2020?

Anyways, Trump tends to absolutely crush it with that whole group of voters in the Midwest who are pro-choice but also massively into White grievance politics. Still, I expect there to be a leftwards trend compared to the rest of the country for many of the reasons you stated.

Something that goes understated is Trump's potential gains among non-White rural voters. We hear a lot about non-White urban voters, but there's massive potential upside for Trump with working class rural non-White men in the South and Southwest.

In 2020 most of rural America swung right outside the northeast, albeit by a significantly smaller magnitude than 2016.

Agree with Grievance politics but that’s kind of my point - the type of friends politics has shifted away from rural white grievance politics into something else that’s hard to label.

Your point about nonwhites in rural America is interesting because I think many underestimate just how much of rural America today in 20-40% nonwhite, especially in the southern half of the US.

[TechbroMBA]

“It may not match the polling, but as a New Yorker I’ve got my finger on the pulse of rural America.”

[ProgressiveModerate]

“It may not match the polling, but as a New Yorker I’ve got my finger on the pulse of rural America.”

If you feel you have a better “pulse” on rural America, I’d love to hear what you think instead of just criticizing me.

[Tekken_Guy]

If it does, alongside suburban educated whites, I think that's enough for Biden to win the same states again.

I don't know if that will be the case though. I highly doubt it.

Why wouldn’t rural America shift left?

[walleye26]

I agree with points 1 and 4, but I’m not sure about the other ones. #4 would be especially useful in places like northern Wisconsin (liberal Twin Cities/Chicago retirees) moving to lake homes in places like Hayward, Rhinelander, and Tomahawk. Ditto with the Cherry Coast in MI. From an electoral college standpoint, Biden may be able to hold WI and MI due to some influence due to this migration.

However, I’m skeptical about the others. A lot of “local media” had dried up (at least in rural Wisconsin). Newspapers such as the Wausau Daily Herald, Baraboo News Republic, Beaver Dam Daily Citizen, etc are mostly just “ghost news” with like 1 page of local sports with the rest being USA Today. What has replaced it? Talk radio. I work and live just north of Madison in Columbia County, but I’m originally from central Wisconsin. Some of my friends always joke that Wausau has “been taken over by WSAU (the local talk radio/Sean Hannity/Fox station). It’s become brain rot. Even some of my more conservative friends have mentioned how much more MAGA the area has become.

The grievance politics stuff really rings true, since a lot of the youth have left and many of these communities are dying or full of heroin (Merrill, Adams, Waupun, etc). While I do agree that many places don’t have too much further to fall, I do think it’s possible for Trump to squeeze more out of the Driftless region, especially places like Crawford, Richland, Grant, Juneau, and Buffalo. This could be counterbalanced by shifts in WOW though, but it’s hard to say. I don’t know.

Edit: It will also be interesting to see how things like abortion referendum and redistricting play into things. In Wisconsin, we have fair legislative maps for the first time in 13 years. That may be helpful. PA is very close in its state house, so persuasion may really matter in PA.

[quesaisje]

However, I’m skeptical about the others. A lot of “local media” had dried up (at least in rural Wisconsin). Newspapers such as the Wausau Daily Herald, Baraboo News Republic, Beaver Dam Daily Citizen, etc are mostly just “ghost news” with like 1 page of local sports with the rest being USA Today. What has replaced it? Talk radio. I work and live just north of Madison in Columbia County, but I’m originally from central Wisconsin. Some of my friends always joke that Wausau has “been taken over by WSAU (the local talk radio/Sean Hannity/Fox station). It’s become brain rot. Even some of my more conservative friends have mentioned how much more MAGA the area has become.

Rural America contains multitudes, but OP's impression is about a generation out of date in my experience. The newspapers have lost influence even where they're somehow still going. Local media means radio and maybe television, sometimes via social media pages run by one or the other.

[Radicalneo]

“It may not match the polling, but as a New Yorker I’ve got my finger on the pulse of rural America.”

Yeah. Where does rural America swing left?

[Open Source Intelligence]

Kind of live in an area so described. Anecdotally, I am seeing nothing showing this.

If you compare 2012 to 2016, the 60ish counties that have the least number of voters and make up 25% of Indiana's electorate, Trump's winning margin from them doubled in size. So Romney won them by a combined ~180k while Trump won them by a combined ~370k. Biden slightly improved in the middle counties but the bottom tier he performed marginally worse than Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile these Democratic Party rural county affiliates have completely atrophied the last 15 years. It's mostly ignored on this message board but local political party organization absolutely does matter as far as electoral performance. I don't consider my local Democratic Party county affiliate to be functional. No one is running for office locally outside of 1 guy that is running for state legislature and will get completely trashed. No one is running for county office and from 2018 onwards they have ran a grand total of 1 county government candidate in 4 elections counting this year.

2016:

Prez: Trump (R) 72.1, Clinton (D) 21.4, Johnson (L), 5.1, Write-in 1.4
Sen: Young (R) 63.3, Bayh (D) 28.9, Brenton (L) 7.8
Gov: Holcomb (R) 64.2, Gregg (D) 31.8, Bell (L) 3.9
Cong: Banks (R) 77.4, Schrader (D) 15.5, Snyder (L) 7.0

2018:

Sen: Braun (R) 67.3, Donnelly (D) 28.5, Brenton (L) 4.1, Write-in 0.1
Cong: Banks (R) 74.3, Tritch (D) 25.7

2020:

Prez: Trump (R) 73.1, Biden (D) 24.1, Jorgensen (L) 2.6, Write-in 0.2
Gov: Holcomb (R) 66.0, Rainwater (L) 18.3, Myers (D) 15.7
Cong: Banks (R) 76.4, Coldiron (D) 23.5, Write-in 0.1

2022:

Sen: Young (R) 74.5, McDermott (D) 21.2, Sceniak (L) 3.8, Write-in 0.5
Cong: Banks (R) 72.5, Snyder (D) 22.2, Gotsch (I) 5.3

Notice the performance of Bayh, Gregg, and Donnelly compared to every other Democrat on that list. Anecdotally for this one county, the Joe Biden presidency has not been Bayh, Gregg, or Donnelly. For comparison to above, McCain won the county in 2008 60.0 to 38.6 and Romney won the county in 2012 68.2 to 29.4.

Biden's saving grace for rural areas is I don't think his share of the vote will go up at all and may go even a little lower, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will run and his votes will reduce Biden's losing margins. (The reverse should be true to some degree where Biden is naturally more dominant however.) But I see nothing to support your hypothesis based on what I see on the ground as one involved in politics to a minor degree. Democrats continue to have no message for rural areas and that leads to them losing those areas by 50-point-plus margins.

[Randy Marsh]

lol no

[Dan the Roman]

Kind of live in an area so described. Anecdotally, I am seeing nothing showing this.

If you compare 2012 to 2016, the 60ish counties that have the least number of voters and make up 25% of Indiana's electorate, Trump's winning margin from them doubled in size. So Romney won them by a combined ~180k while Trump won them by a combined ~370k. Biden slightly improved in the middle counties but the bottom tier he performed marginally worse than Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile these Democratic Party rural county affiliates have completely atrophied the last 15 years. It's mostly ignored on this message board but local political party organization absolutely does matter as far as electoral performance. I don't consider my local Democratic Party county affiliate to be functional. No one is running for office locally outside of 1 guy that is running for state legislature and will get completely trashed. No one is running for county office and from 2018 onwards they have ran a grand total of 1 county government candidate in 4 elections counting this year.

2016:

Prez: Trump (R) 72.1, Clinton (D) 21.4, Johnson (L), 5.1, Write-in 1.4
Sen: Young (R) 63.3, Bayh (D) 28.9, Brenton (L) 7.8
Gov: Holcomb (R) 64.2, Gregg (D) 31.8, Bell (L) 3.9
Cong: Banks (R) 77.4, Schrader (D) 15.5, Snyder (L) 7.0

2018:

Sen: Braun (R) 67.3, Donnelly (D) 28.5, Brenton (L) 4.1, Write-in 0.1
Cong: Banks (R) 74.3, Tritch (D) 25.7

2020:

Prez: Trump (R) 73.1, Biden (D) 24.1, Jorgensen (L) 2.6, Write-in 0.2
Gov: Holcomb (R) 66.0, Rainwater (L) 18.3, Myers (D) 15.7
Cong: Banks (R) 76.4, Coldiron (D) 23.5, Write-in 0.1

2022:

Sen: Young (R) 74.5, McDermott (D) 21.2, Sceniak (L) 3.8, Write-in 0.5
Cong: Banks (R) 72.5, Snyder (D) 22.2, Gotsch (I) 5.3

Notice the performance of Bayh, Gregg, and Donnelly compared to every other Democrat on that list. Anecdotally for this one county, the Joe Biden presidency has not been Bayh, Gregg, or Donnelly. For comparison to above, McCain won the county in 2008 60.0 to 38.6 and Romney won the county in 2012 68.2 to 29.4.

Biden's saving grace for rural areas is I don't think his share of the vote will go up at all and may go even a little lower, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will run and his votes will reduce Biden's losing margins. (The reverse should be true to some degree where Biden is naturally more dominant however.) But I see nothing to support your hypothesis based on what I see on the ground as one involved in politics to a minor degree. Democrats continue to have no message for rural areas and that leads to them losing those areas by 50-point-plus margins.

I mostly agree returning to my parent's home in rural New Hampshire with one exception. Dobbs brought to life the Democratic performance in state legislative races where they went from around 33% to 44% while the rest of the ticket remained non existent. It's often not enough to win seats, but some previously apolitical folks have run for legislature posy Dobbs in 2022 and recieved crossover support.

However, I also know plenty who voted Democratic for legislature for the first time in 2022, may do so in 2024 but would never think of voting for Biden.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Kind of live in an area so described. Anecdotally, I am seeing nothing showing this.

If you compare 2012 to 2016, the 60ish counties that have the least number of voters and make up 25% of Indiana's electorate, Trump's winning margin from them doubled in size. So Romney won them by a combined ~180k while Trump won them by a combined ~370k. Biden slightly improved in the middle counties but the bottom tier he performed marginally worse than Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile these Democratic Party rural county affiliates have completely atrophied the last 15 years. It's mostly ignored on this message board but local political party organization absolutely does matter as far as electoral performance. I don't consider my local Democratic Party county affiliate to be functional. No one is running for office locally outside of 1 guy that is running for state legislature and will get completely trashed. No one is running for county office and from 2018 onwards they have ran a grand total of 1 county government candidate in 4 elections counting this year.

2016:

Prez: Trump (R) 72.1, Clinton (D) 21.4, Johnson (L), 5.1, Write-in 1.4
Sen: Young (R) 63.3, Bayh (D) 28.9, Brenton (L) 7.8
Gov: Holcomb (R) 64.2, Gregg (D) 31.8, Bell (L) 3.9
Cong: Banks (R) 77.4, Schrader (D) 15.5, Snyder (L) 7.0

2018:

Sen: Braun (R) 67.3, Donnelly (D) 28.5, Brenton (L) 4.1, Write-in 0.1
Cong: Banks (R) 74.3, Tritch (D) 25.7

2020:

Prez: Trump (R) 73.1, Biden (D) 24.1, Jorgensen (L) 2.6, Write-in 0.2
Gov: Holcomb (R) 66.0, Rainwater (L) 18.3, Myers (D) 15.7
Cong: Banks (R) 76.4, Coldiron (D) 23.5, Write-in 0.1

2022:

Sen: Young (R) 74.5, McDermott (D) 21.2, Sceniak (L) 3.8, Write-in 0.5
Cong: Banks (R) 72.5, Snyder (D) 22.2, Gotsch (I) 5.3

Notice the performance of Bayh, Gregg, and Donnelly compared to every other Democrat on that list. Anecdotally for this one county, the Joe Biden presidency has not been Bayh, Gregg, or Donnelly. For comparison to above, McCain won the county in 2008 60.0 to 38.6 and Romney won the county in 2012 68.2 to 29.4.

Biden's saving grace for rural areas is I don't think his share of the vote will go up at all and may go even a little lower, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will run and his votes will reduce Biden's losing margins. (The reverse should be true to some degree where Biden is naturally more dominant however.) But I see nothing to support your hypothesis based on what I see on the ground as one involved in politics to a minor degree. Democrats continue to have no message for rural areas and that leads to them losing those areas by 50-point-plus margins.

I mostly agree returning to my parent's home in rural New Hampshire with one exception. Dobbs brought to life the Democratic performance in state legislative races where they went from around 33% to 44% while the rest of the ticket remained non existent. It's often not enough to win seats, but some previously apolitical folks have run for legislature posy Dobbs in 2022 and recieved crossover support.

However, I also know plenty who voted Democratic for legislature for the first time in 2022, may do so in 2024 but would never think of voting for Biden.

Right to Life are grassroots strong here. If Democrats choose to campaign on abortion Biden might get less votes than RFK Jr.

Comparing to 2016 and 2020, I don't see how Biden gets 24.1% of the vote in my county he got considering his 4 years in office and a potential RFK Jr. candidacy. Johnson in 2016 got 5% in a similar "we hate this election" vibe from the electorate, but RFK Jr. should outperform Gary Johnson. He'll have more money and media attention. When you consider that, I don't know if Biden cracks 20%. Trump at the 70% benchmark or s little under sounds right, he's going to lose votes to RFK Jr. too.

[Ancestral Republican]

Kind of live in an area so described. Anecdotally, I am seeing nothing showing this.

If you compare 2012 to 2016, the 60ish counties that have the least number of voters and make up 25% of Indiana's electorate, Trump's winning margin from them doubled in size. So Romney won them by a combined ~180k while Trump won them by a combined ~370k. Biden slightly improved in the middle counties but the bottom tier he performed marginally worse than Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile these Democratic Party rural county affiliates have completely atrophied the last 15 years. It's mostly ignored on this message board but local political party organization absolutely does matter as far as electoral performance. I don't consider my local Democratic Party county affiliate to be functional. No one is running for office locally outside of 1 guy that is running for state legislature and will get completely trashed. No one is running for county office and from 2018 onwards they have ran a grand total of 1 county government candidate in 4 elections counting this year.

2016:

Prez: Trump (R) 72.1, Clinton (D) 21.4, Johnson (L), 5.1, Write-in 1.4
Sen: Young (R) 63.3, Bayh (D) 28.9, Brenton (L) 7.8
Gov: Holcomb (R) 64.2, Gregg (D) 31.8, Bell (L) 3.9
Cong: Banks (R) 77.4, Schrader (D) 15.5, Snyder (L) 7.0

2018:

Sen: Braun (R) 67.3, Donnelly (D) 28.5, Brenton (L) 4.1, Write-in 0.1
Cong: Banks (R) 74.3, Tritch (D) 25.7

2020:

Prez: Trump (R) 73.1, Biden (D) 24.1, Jorgensen (L) 2.6, Write-in 0.2
Gov: Holcomb (R) 66.0, Rainwater (L) 18.3, Myers (D) 15.7
Cong: Banks (R) 76.4, Coldiron (D) 23.5, Write-in 0.1

2022:

Sen: Young (R) 74.5, McDermott (D) 21.2, Sceniak (L) 3.8, Write-in 0.5
Cong: Banks (R) 72.5, Snyder (D) 22.2, Gotsch (I) 5.3

Notice the performance of Bayh, Gregg, and Donnelly compared to every other Democrat on that list. Anecdotally for this one county, the Joe Biden presidency has not been Bayh, Gregg, or Donnelly. For comparison to above, McCain won the county in 2008 60.0 to 38.6 and Romney won the county in 2012 68.2 to 29.4.

Biden's saving grace for rural areas is I don't think his share of the vote will go up at all and may go even a little lower, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will run and his votes will reduce Biden's losing margins. (The reverse should be true to some degree where Biden is naturally more dominant however.) But I see nothing to support your hypothesis based on what I see on the ground as one involved in politics to a minor degree. Democrats continue to have no message for rural areas and that leads to them losing those areas by 50-point-plus margins.

I mostly agree returning to my parent's home in rural New Hampshire with one exception. Dobbs brought to life the Democratic performance in state legislative races where they went from around 33% to 44% while the rest of the ticket remained non existent. It's often not enough to win seats, but some previously apolitical folks have run for legislature posy Dobbs in 2022 and recieved crossover support.

However, I also know plenty who voted Democratic for legislature for the first time in 2022, may do so in 2024 but would never think of voting for Biden.

Right to Life are grassroots strong here. If Democrats choose to campaign on abortion Biden might get less votes than RFK Jr.

Achieving your goal and it turning out to be a disaster isn't a good way to maximize turnout, actually.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Kind of live in an area so described. Anecdotally, I am seeing nothing showing this.

If you compare 2012 to 2016, the 60ish counties that have the least number of voters and make up 25% of Indiana's electorate, Trump's winning margin from them doubled in size. So Romney won them by a combined ~180k while Trump won them by a combined ~370k. Biden slightly improved in the middle counties but the bottom tier he performed marginally worse than Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile these Democratic Party rural county affiliates have completely atrophied the last 15 years. It's mostly ignored on this message board but local political party organization absolutely does matter as far as electoral performance. I don't consider my local Democratic Party county affiliate to be functional. No one is running for office locally outside of 1 guy that is running for state legislature and will get completely trashed. No one is running for county office and from 2018 onwards they have ran a grand total of 1 county government candidate in 4 elections counting this year.

2016:

Prez: Trump (R) 72.1, Clinton (D) 21.4, Johnson (L), 5.1, Write-in 1.4
Sen: Young (R) 63.3, Bayh (D) 28.9, Brenton (L) 7.8
Gov: Holcomb (R) 64.2, Gregg (D) 31.8, Bell (L) 3.9
Cong: Banks (R) 77.4, Schrader (D) 15.5, Snyder (L) 7.0

2018:

Sen: Braun (R) 67.3, Donnelly (D) 28.5, Brenton (L) 4.1, Write-in 0.1
Cong: Banks (R) 74.3, Tritch (D) 25.7

2020:

Prez: Trump (R) 73.1, Biden (D) 24.1, Jorgensen (L) 2.6, Write-in 0.2
Gov: Holcomb (R) 66.0, Rainwater (L) 18.3, Myers (D) 15.7
Cong: Banks (R) 76.4, Coldiron (D) 23.5, Write-in 0.1

2022:

Sen: Young (R) 74.5, McDermott (D) 21.2, Sceniak (L) 3.8, Write-in 0.5
Cong: Banks (R) 72.5, Snyder (D) 22.2, Gotsch (I) 5.3

Notice the performance of Bayh, Gregg, and Donnelly compared to every other Democrat on that list. Anecdotally for this one county, the Joe Biden presidency has not been Bayh, Gregg, or Donnelly. For comparison to above, McCain won the county in 2008 60.0 to 38.6 and Romney won the county in 2012 68.2 to 29.4.

Biden's saving grace for rural areas is I don't think his share of the vote will go up at all and may go even a little lower, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will run and his votes will reduce Biden's losing margins. (The reverse should be true to some degree where Biden is naturally more dominant however.) But I see nothing to support your hypothesis based on what I see on the ground as one involved in politics to a minor degree. Democrats continue to have no message for rural areas and that leads to them losing those areas by 50-point-plus margins.

I mostly agree returning to my parent's home in rural New Hampshire with one exception. Dobbs brought to life the Democratic performance in state legislative races where they went from around 33% to 44% while the rest of the ticket remained non existent. It's often not enough to win seats, but some previously apolitical folks have run for legislature posy Dobbs in 2022 and recieved crossover support.

However, I also know plenty who voted Democratic for legislature for the first time in 2022, may do so in 2024 but would never think of voting for Biden.

Right to Life are grassroots strong here. If Democrats choose to campaign on abortion Biden might get less votes than RFK Jr.

Achieving your goal and it turning out to be a disaster isn't a good way to maximize turnout, actually.

Depends who you talk to on it being a disaster. Again, we're talking rural white America. We're not talking people living in the suburbs. We're not talking people living in the cities. I'm Libertarian Party Chairman in the county and "what does your party think about abortion?" is probably the question I've been asked most often the past few years at public events when people delve into what our beliefs are.

Democrats' calculus for running for electoral office at this point in time is they don't want or need rural areas. In a state like Indiana, that pretty much dooms the whole state party to failure. The past state Democratic Chair John Zody was a total failure of a leader that never realized there were more than 10 counties in the state. He got replaced by Mike Schmuhl who worked in the Buttigieg campaign and Schmuhl has talked about we have to reach out to these areas for the simple reason of election math for Indiana Democrats to win dictates they have to cut down the losing margins (no different than Trump and the black vote), but I've seen no action that actually makes those counties want to swing left or localized enthusiasm to demonstrate momentum such as Democrats in these areas driven to run for office. If you didn't vote for Biden in 2020 in a rural county, why would you vote for him now? Throw on top of it the Kennedy factor where he's going to take from Trump and Biden. Biden will finish 3rd in some counties in this country in November I'm willing to bet. It already happened for Democrats in Indiana, 4 years ago their candidate for Governor finished 3rd in 32 of the state's 92 counties behind the Libertarian.

Organizationally, since our Libertarian Party county affiliate was inaugurated a few years, we've done more than the Democrats every year as far as reaching the public with our message. I've met the Democratic Party county chair and talked to her cordially before, I can't tell you a damn thing she does. They have a Facebook page, but we have that as well. If that is an example of how rural Democrats as a whole are operating, how can rural areas swing left?

[Dave Hedgehog]

It can't keep trending right forever but I think Republicans can squeeze a bit more out of it this year due to Biden being unpopular and the Democratic brand only seeming to become more and more stigmatized away from the big cities. I'm very curious to see how many >90% R counties there are in November; wondering if a few states where there weren't any last time have a few break that threshold. KY, ND, WY and maybe TN/MO seem like prime candidates for that.

[SnowLabrador]

Kind of live in an area so described. Anecdotally, I am seeing nothing showing this.

If you compare 2012 to 2016, the 60ish counties that have the least number of voters and make up 25% of Indiana's electorate, Trump's winning margin from them doubled in size. So Romney won them by a combined ~180k while Trump won them by a combined ~370k. Biden slightly improved in the middle counties but the bottom tier he performed marginally worse than Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile these Democratic Party rural county affiliates have completely atrophied the last 15 years. It's mostly ignored on this message board but local political party organization absolutely does matter as far as electoral performance. I don't consider my local Democratic Party county affiliate to be functional. No one is running for office locally outside of 1 guy that is running for state legislature and will get completely trashed. No one is running for county office and from 2018 onwards they have ran a grand total of 1 county government candidate in 4 elections counting this year.

2016:

Prez: Trump (R) 72.1, Clinton (D) 21.4, Johnson (L), 5.1, Write-in 1.4
Sen: Young (R) 63.3, Bayh (D) 28.9, Brenton (L) 7.8
Gov: Holcomb (R) 64.2, Gregg (D) 31.8, Bell (L) 3.9
Cong: Banks (R) 77.4, Schrader (D) 15.5, Snyder (L) 7.0

2018:

Sen: Braun (R) 67.3, Donnelly (D) 28.5, Brenton (L) 4.1, Write-in 0.1
Cong: Banks (R) 74.3, Tritch (D) 25.7

2020:

Prez: Trump (R) 73.1, Biden (D) 24.1, Jorgensen (L) 2.6, Write-in 0.2
Gov: Holcomb (R) 66.0, Rainwater (L) 18.3, Myers (D) 15.7
Cong: Banks (R) 76.4, Coldiron (D) 23.5, Write-in 0.1

2022:

Sen: Young (R) 74.5, McDermott (D) 21.2, Sceniak (L) 3.8, Write-in 0.5
Cong: Banks (R) 72.5, Snyder (D) 22.2, Gotsch (I) 5.3

Notice the performance of Bayh, Gregg, and Donnelly compared to every other Democrat on that list. Anecdotally for this one county, the Joe Biden presidency has not been Bayh, Gregg, or Donnelly. For comparison to above, McCain won the county in 2008 60.0 to 38.6 and Romney won the county in 2012 68.2 to 29.4.

Biden's saving grace for rural areas is I don't think his share of the vote will go up at all and may go even a little lower, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will run and his votes will reduce Biden's losing margins. (The reverse should be true to some degree where Biden is naturally more dominant however.) But I see nothing to support your hypothesis based on what I see on the ground as one involved in politics to a minor degree. Democrats continue to have no message for rural areas and that leads to them losing those areas by 50-point-plus margins.

I mostly agree returning to my parent's home in rural New Hampshire with one exception. Dobbs brought to life the Democratic performance in state legislative races where they went from around 33% to 44% while the rest of the ticket remained non existent. It's often not enough to win seats, but some previously apolitical folks have run for legislature posy Dobbs in 2022 and recieved crossover support.

However, I also know plenty who voted Democratic for legislature for the first time in 2022, may do so in 2024 but would never think of voting for Biden.

Right to Life are grassroots strong here. If Democrats choose to campaign on abortion Biden might get less votes than RFK Jr.

Achieving your goal and it turning out to be a disaster isn't a good way to maximize turnout, actually.

Depends who you talk to on it being a disaster. Again, we're talking rural white America. We're not talking people living in the suburbs. We're not talking people living in the cities. I'm Libertarian Party Chairman in the county and "what does your party think about abortion?" is probably the question I've been asked most often the past few years at public events when people delve into what our beliefs are.

Democrats' calculus for running for electoral office at this point in time is they don't want or need rural areas. In a state like Indiana, that pretty much dooms the whole state party to failure. The past state Democratic Chair John Zody was a total failure of a leader that never realized there were more than 10 counties in the state. He got replaced by Mike Schmuhl who worked in the Buttigieg campaign and Schmuhl has talked about we have to reach out to these areas for the simple reason of election math for Indiana Democrats to win dictates they have to cut down the losing margins (no different than Trump and the black vote), but I've seen no action that actually makes those counties want to swing left or localized enthusiasm to demonstrate momentum such as Democrats in these areas driven to run for office. If you didn't vote for Biden in 2020 in a rural county, why would you vote for him now? Throw on top of it the Kennedy factor where he's going to take from Trump and Biden. Biden will finish 3rd in some counties in this country in November I'm willing to bet. It already happened for Democrats in Indiana, 4 years ago their candidate for Governor finished 3rd in 32 of the state's 92 counties behind the Libertarian.

Organizationally, since our Libertarian Party county affiliate was inaugurated a few years, we've done more than the Democrats every year as far as reaching the public with our message. I've met the Democratic Party county chair and talked to her cordially before, I can't tell you a damn thing she does. They have a Facebook page, but we have that as well. If that is an example of how rural Democrats as a whole are operating, how can rural areas swing left?

This is to say nothing of how dangerous it is to be a Democrat running for office in a rural area. I remember MTG's 2020 opponent had to drop out due to the death threats he was receiving.

[Minnesota Mike]

“It may not match the polling, but as a New Yorker I’ve got my finger on the pulse of rural America.”

As someone who has lived in rural America almost my entire life I think the OP is mostly correct. Of course trends/swings are not even everywhere but my corner of SE Minnesota trended left in 2020 compared to 2016 and I would not be surprised to see another small move left this year. Honestly I think Jan 6 is a far bigger deal to a certain segment of older rural people who gave Trump a shot in 2016, reluctantly stood by him in 2020 but view his behavior that day a step too far.

[Spectator]

The brain drain is a very real phenomenon in rural America. I’m not saying the Republican voters in these areas are dumb. What I’m saying is that the types of people that would be offended by Trump’s/GOP’s behavior that grew up in these areas are the ones that tend to leave for college and never come back. It’s quite sad honestly.

[DaleCooper]

The brain drain is a very real phenomenon in rural America. I’m not saying the Republican voters in these areas are dumb. What I’m saying is that the types of people that would be offended by Trump’s/GOP’s behavior that grew up in these areas are the ones that tend to leave for college and never come back. It’s quite sad honestly.

This, 100%. I made a comment about this in another thread, but basically if you ever go visit one of these dying towns, it's going to be one of the most depressing things you'll ever witness firsthand. Anybody with anything to live for has left. The people who remain aren't even voting for Trump because they think he'll save their sh-tty little town, they're just hoping he'll bring the rest of the country down too.

[Spectator]

The brain drain is a very real phenomenon in rural America. I’m not saying the Republican voters in these areas are dumb. What I’m saying is that the types of people that would be offended by Trump’s/GOP’s behavior that grew up in these areas are the ones that tend to leave for college and never come back. It’s quite sad honestly.

This, 100%. I made a comment about this in another thread, but basically if you ever go visit one of these dying towns, it's going to be one of the most depressing things you'll ever witness firsthand. Anybody with anything to live for has left. The people who remain aren't even voting for Trump because they think he'll save their sh-tty little town, they're just hoping he'll bring the rest of the country down too.

I’m from one of these areas. We just had our 10-year reunion. Our high school class of roughly 100 people punched significantly above its weight. Two doctors, 4 nurses, a Harvard-educated lawyer, 3-4 engineers, and a handful of people with solid careers in the military. Only one of the engineers remains in the local area. Quite sad, but also super proud of us for getting out and making waves in the world.

[Spectator]

The brain drain is a very real phenomenon in rural America. I’m not saying the Republican voters in these areas are dumb. What I’m saying is that the types of people that would be offended by Trump’s/GOP’s behavior that grew up in these areas are the ones that tend to leave for college and never come back. It’s quite sad honestly.

This, 100%. I made a comment about this in another thread, but basically if you ever go visit one of these dying towns, it's going to be one of the most depressing things you'll ever witness firsthand. Anybody with anything to live for has left. The people who remain aren't even voting for Trump because they think he'll save their sh-tty little town, they're just hoping he'll bring the rest of the country down too.

I’m from one of these areas. We just had our 10-year reunion. Our high school class of roughly 100 people punched significantly above its weight. Two doctors, 4 nurses, a Harvard-educated lawyer, 3-4 engineers, and a handful of people with solid careers in the military. Only one of the engineers remains in the local area. Quite sad, but also super proud of us for getting out and making waves in the world.

To add onto this point, since it is relative to this thread: I’d imagine Biden/Dems would do decently among the slice of my high school class that “succeeded”. They don’t live there anymore though, and Trump will probably get an even more insane margin out of the people remaining.

[Minnesota Mike]

The brain drain is a very real phenomenon in rural America. I’m not saying the Republican voters in these areas are dumb. What I’m saying is that the types of people that would be offended by Trump’s/GOP’s behavior that grew up in these areas are the ones that tend to leave for college and never come back. It’s quite sad honestly.

This, 100%. I made a comment about this in another thread, but basically if you ever go visit one of these dying towns, it's going to be one of the most depressing things you'll ever witness firsthand. Anybody with anything to live for has left. The people who remain aren't even voting for Trump because they think he'll save their sh-tty little town, they're just hoping he'll bring the rest of the country down too.

Condescending attitudes like this are a large part of why Democrats struggle in rural areas. I don't need to visit one of these "dying towns" I live there. As hard as it is for you to believe the vast majority of people who live here would not live anywhere else, myself included. I'm not saying rural areas don't have their problems, they do, but so do suburbs and cities. I may not agree politically with a majority of my neighbors but for the most part they are good people living life the way they want,who the F*** are you to say they have nothing to live for.