Why are Democrats Polling so well ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

With all the doom and gloom about Biden's polling numbers, the trend has not been represented in the senate races with democratic incumbent and challengers routinely polling well ahead in the same polls showing Biden behind. 

Why is this the case ?

[Epaminondas]

The contempt for Biden is palpable in almost any conversation with under-30s.
Progressive ideas are more popular than ever.

[SnowLabrador]

They're not polling that well. Notice that in most of the swing-state Senate polls (to say nothing of Ohio or Montana), the Democrats are in the low to mid 40s. The undecideds will break Republican.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Cross over votes and some name recognition.

Now I would note it looks like all of the democratic Senate candidates are receiving less cross over votes then the last time their seats were up in a presidential election year (2012). They also seem to be doing worse then relative to the Congressional ballot in 2018.

I would note that with the exception of ME senate 2020- the number of cross over support in polls FOR Senate elections has declined as the election has gotten closer. See ND, TN, MO 2018. GA regular 2020, etc.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Incumbency, familiarity, and for whatever reason people generally seem to like their statewide down-ballot incumbents better than the President.

Not only that, but Republican recruitment this cycle has been a massive failure yet again. It's looking increasingly likely that at best they'll just net Montana and Ohio (obviously West Virginia too) for reasons unrelated to their candidates in those races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map that's why they underperforming in 22 it was supposed to be a red wave they only do well in red states

[Mr. Smith]

It's a mirage against them, or for Trump.

The results are going to near match.

[wnwnwn]

The senators can create their brands, focus on the issues that matter in their states and avoid foreing policy controversies.

[wbrocks67]

This is kind of a fallacy.

Senate dems on average are only polling about ~2% or so better than Biden vote-share wise.

Republican senate candidates are just underpolling Trump so badly that it makes it look like they're outperforming Biden by so much more.

[President Johnson]

It's a mirage against them, or for Trump.

The results are going to near match.

This. Though the truth is probably somewhere between the two options.

[kwabbit]

This is kind of a fallacy.

Senate dems on average are only polling about ~2% or so better than Biden vote-share wise.

Republican senate candidates are just underpolling Trump so badly that it makes it look like they're outperforming Biden by so much more.

2% is a big difference vote share wise. 4 points of margin even if all the undecideds went to the GOP candidate, which is unlikely. Trump is unlikely to win any swing state by that much more than 4 points. Odds are he wins none by that much. If Trump were to get the 312 EV map and Casey, Baldwin, Gallego, and Rosen, and Slotkin won by getting 2% more of the vote than Biden, that would be perhaps the defining phenomenon of the election.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden is worse than the average Dem, Trump is overall better than the average Republican except for incumbents in suburban districts.

[wbrocks67]

This is kind of a fallacy.

Senate dems on average are only polling about ~2% or so better than Biden vote-share wise.

Republican senate candidates are just underpolling Trump so badly that it makes it look like they're outperforming Biden by so much more.

2% is a big difference vote share wise. 4 points of margin even if all the undecideds went to the GOP candidate, which is unlikely. Trump is unlikely to win any swing state by that much more than 4 points. Odds are he wins none by that much. If Trump were to get the 312 EV map and Casey, Baldwin, Gallego, and Rosen, and Slotkin won by getting 2% more of the vote than Biden, that would be perhaps the defining phenomenon of the election.

Right now - 5 months before the election with many undecideds - no it's not.

[Pollster]

In most focus groups with persuadable/swing voters, independents, and even soft partisans, people aren't able to articulate why they dislike Biden and the reasons for their disapproval of him often boil down to one-word answers and broad vagarities. This dynamic doesn't exist with virtually any down-ballot Democrat save for a few particularly polarizing ones and is unlike what we saw in the Trump, Obama, and even Bush years where people were able to give a laundry list of the President's offenses without even having to sit and think about it first.

This obviously isn't true of Republicans who dislike Biden because he's a Democrat, or the corner of the Democratic base that has issues with him from the left (right now manifested through Gaza). But it's the primary reason why down-ballot Dems are much more comfortable in their positioning right now than Biden is.

[Mr. Illini]

Trump is equally unpopular. Biden just gets more coverage because he’s the prez.

[wbrocks67]

In most focus groups with persuadable/swing voters, independents, and even soft partisans, people aren't able to articulate why they dislike Biden and the reasons for their disapproval of him often boil down to one-word answers and broad vagarities. This dynamic doesn't exist with virtually any down-ballot Democrat save for a few particularly polarizing ones and is unlike what we saw in the Trump, Obama, and even Bush years where people were able to give a laundry list of the President's offenses without even having to sit and think about it first.

This obviously isn't true of Republicans who dislike Biden because he's a Democrat, or the corner of the Democratic base that has issues with him from the left (right now manifested through Gaza). But it's the primary reason why down-ballot Dems are much more comfortable in their positioning right now than Biden is.

This dynamic tells me that this kind of lines up with what we see with the 'somewhat disapprovers' situation - There may be quite a lot of people who are not huge fans of Biden, but there's a good chunk of that disapproval that is relatively soft, and that seems like something he can work with.

It also just speaks to the bigger issue of a chunk of people who dislike Biden for unknown reasons, just like ~vibes~ or they feel it's ~cool~ to dislike him or something. I find IRL that a lot of is more ambivalence than anything (don't love him, don't hate him, it's just kind of meh) which again is much more workable than with the passionate hatred that Trump, Obama, etc elicited from some

[Brittain33]

Because on the merits, this should be a good election for Dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daines didn't recruit the right candidates, Brown is a terrible candidate not Laxalt and Lake is a terrible fit for AZ

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The contempt for Biden is palpable in almost any conversation with under-30s.
Progressive ideas are more popular than ever.

At this moment, American discourse is more conservative than it has been at any point in the last 10 years. Democrats in the Senate are polling well because nobody supports the Republican Party anymore - they only vote for Trump. The Republican Party no longer cares about a functioning economy - only creepy things like erasing homosexuality in schools, banning assisted reproduction, cutting social security, banning books, etc. The Democrat Party is far from perfect, but at least they don't want to upend sanity and stability.

[Spectator]

These comments hit the nail on the head. They will probably overperform him by anywhere between 2-6 points (likely more for Tester/Brown), and for the most part, that will be enough for Democrats to win those swing states. Trump is a unique brand from the Republican Party. The Republican Party's brand among anyone under the age of 40 is dogcrap.

The contempt for Biden is palpable in almost any conversation with under-30s.
Progressive ideas are more popular than ever.

At this moment, American discourse is more conservative than it has been at any point in the last 10 years. Democrats in the Senate are polling well because nobody supports the Republican Party anymore - they only vote for Trump. The Republican Party no longer cares about a functioning economy - only creepy things like erasing homosexuality in schools, banning assisted reproduction, cutting social security, banning books, etc. The Democrat Party is far from perfect, but at least they don't want to upend sanity and stability.

[OSR stands with Israel]

These comments hit the nail on the head. They will probably overperform him by anywhere between 2-6 points (likely more for Tester/Brown), and for the most part, that will be enough for Democrats to win those swing states. Trump is a unique brand from the Republican Party. The Republican Party's brand among anyone under the age of 40 is dogcrap.

So you really think Trump is more popular than the average Republican. Like DeSantis or Haley would definitely be better general election candidates as they unlike Trump would have relatively clean slates which would pretty much doom any chances Biden has of winning reelection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These comments hit the nail on the head. They will probably overperform him by anywhere between 2-6 points (likely more for Tester/Brown), and for the most part, that will be enough for Democrats to win those swing states. Trump is a unique brand from the Republican Party. The Republican Party's brand among anyone under the age of 40 is dogcrap.

So you really think Trump is more popular than the average Republican. Like DeSantis or Haley would definitely be better general election candidates as they unlike Trump would have relatively clean slates which would pretty much doom any chances Biden has of winning reelection.

Haley and DeSantis were polling 1/3 pts behind in Rassy to Biden like Biden is polling 2/3 pts ahead of Trump in QU poll

[kwabbit]

These comments hit the nail on the head. They will probably overperform him by anywhere between 2-6 points (likely more for Tester/Brown), and for the most part, that will be enough for Democrats to win those swing states. Trump is a unique brand from the Republican Party. The Republican Party's brand among anyone under the age of 40 is dogcrap.

So you really think Trump is more popular than the average Republican. Like DeSantis or Haley would definitely be better general election candidates as they unlike Trump would have relatively clean slates which would pretty much doom any chances Biden has of winning reelection.

Haley would be. DeSantis was polling worse than Trump. DeSantis seems more palatable to Romney-Biden suburbanites but Trump is legitimately stronger among non-college Whites and Latino and Black voters.

[Spectator]

These comments hit the nail on the head. They will probably overperform him by anywhere between 2-6 points (likely more for Tester/Brown), and for the most part, that will be enough for Democrats to win those swing states. Trump is a unique brand from the Republican Party. The Republican Party's brand among anyone under the age of 40 is dogcrap.

So you really think Trump is more popular than the average Republican. Like DeSantis or Haley would definitely be better general election candidates as they unlike Trump would have relatively clean slates which would pretty much doom any chances Biden has of winning reelection.

Haley would be. DeSantis was polling worse than Trump. DeSantis seems more palatable to Romney-Biden suburbanites but Trump is legitimately stronger among non-college Whites and Latino and Black voters.

I don’t think any of the Romney-Biden suburbanites were going to vote for DeSantis either given his behavior and rhetoric

[SuzerainOfSwat]

The contempt for Biden is palpable in almost any conversation with under-30s.
Progressive ideas are more popular than ever.

Damn if only these people voted