Betting markets update thread

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

After a modest Biden comeback, Trump is soaring once more.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol all we need is NV, AZ, NH, VA, PA, WI and MI who cares about Markets, and we had a tied NV polls and we lead in an AZ poll this week

Markets needs to relax and wait til we vote not just jump on polls

[Sir Mohamed]

Betting markets are hardly predictive and jump back an forth. That's notthing special.

That said, and it pains me to say it, if I had to bet right now, I would say Trump winning is at least more likely than not. Whether I'll think that after the first debate and/or beyond, is a different story. As of today, however, it looks more likely that Biden is headed for a loss.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't headed for a loss all Trump leads are MOE EMERSON+2/5 pts Users need to know what MOE means, it means a tied race

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Biden isn't headed for a loss all Trump leads are MOE EMERSON+2/5 pts Users need to know what MOE means, it means a tied race

You would be making a fine point with your thousands of samey posts if Biden was, even occasionally leading…. But he hasn’t been. Biden has been behind that MOE in practically every poll since September 2023. At no point in the last 8 months or so has Trump’s lead been in question.

Biden needs a Hail Mary at this point. Maybe he will get it? Probably he won’t.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden isn't headed for a loss all Trump leads are MOE EMERSON+2/5 pts Users need to know what MOE means, it means a tied race

You would be making a fine point with your thousands of samey posts if Biden was, even occasionally leading…. But he hasn’t been. Biden has been behind that MOE in practically every poll since September 2023. At no point in the last 8 months or so has Trump’s lead been in question.

Biden needs a Hail Mary at this point. Maybe he will get it? Probably he won’t.

Not trying to come at you here but Biden does “occasionally lead” though? We’ve had national polls with Biden up as well as polls in the states that actually matter.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Biden isn't headed for a loss all Trump leads are MOE EMERSON+2/5 pts Users need to know what MOE means, it means a tied race

You would be making a fine point with your thousands of samey posts if Biden was, even occasionally leading…. But he hasn’t been. Biden has been behind that MOE in practically every poll since September 2023. At no point in the last 8 months or so has Trump’s lead been in question.

Biden needs a Hail Mary at this point. Maybe he will get it? Probably he won’t.

Not trying to come at you here but Biden does “occasionally lead” though? We’ve had national polls with Biden up as well as polls in the states that actually matter.

I mean consistently lead in the averages…. Biden hasn’t led in the averages for almost a year. Polling has been remarkably consistent with Trump’s lead. Which to me lessens the importance of the MOE.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't headed for a loss all Trump leads are MOE EMERSON+2/5 pts Users need to know what MOE means, it means a tied race

You would be making a fine point with your thousands of samey posts if Biden was, even occasionally leading…. But he hasn’t been. Biden has been behind that MOE in practically every poll since September 2023. At no point in the last 8 months or so has Trump’s lead been in question.

Biden needs a Hail Mary at this point. Maybe he will get it? Probably he won’t.

Marist and IPSOS had Biden +3 I have been also posting polls too I know

We were down in 22 Realclear Pred a 230RH and ,53RS and we won when have the Rs won an Eday 2016 you guys lost 2018/20/22 I won't bet on any R to win again ever

[Tekken_Guy]

Betting markets are hardly predictive and jump back an forth. That's notthing special.

That said, and it pains me to say it, if I had to bet right now, I would say Trump winning is at least more likely than not. Whether I'll think that after the first debate and/or beyond, is a different story. As of today, however, it looks more likely that Biden is headed for a loss.

Why do you think Trump will win?

What changed your mind?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Surely the betting market is banking on a non-conviction (whether that’s an acquittal or a more likelier hung jury), no?

[SnowLabrador]

Trump is leading and will win, but betting markets aren't the best evidence for that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The OUTPARTY always have an advantage look at Romney it took Sandy to spoil his chances otherwise without Sandy he could of won.

But, Biden can still win look at all the polls they all within the MOE, and stop worrying we can't do anything until we vote, this board always fret about Biden

[Tekken_Guy]

Surely the betting market is banking on a non-conviction (whether that’s an acquittal or a more likelier hung jury), no?

I think Trump’s surge have been mostly a reaction to the NYT/Siena polls two weeks ago.

[Meclazine for Israel]

His dancing is getting better.

Hold On

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7XrKE_tt3b/

[Sir Mohamed]

Betting markets are hardly predictive and jump back an forth. That's notthing special.

That said, and it pains me to say it, if I had to bet right now, I would say Trump winning is at least more likely than not. Whether I'll think that after the first debate and/or beyond, is a different story. As of today, however, it looks more likely that Biden is headed for a loss.

Why do you think Trump will win?

What changed your mind?

Well, what changed my mind? I'm unsure whether my mind has changed all too much, I'm just beginning to think we're slowly running out of time. Or at least begin to wonder what could change in the time left.

I'm not yet predicting an outcome as it's way too early for that. However, initially I expected this cycle to be similar to 2012, in which the incumbent seemed vulnerable through the previous year, but things are improving into the election year. We haven't seen this yet. In spring and early summer 2012, it seemed like Obama was back on track and early definied his challenger as an out-of-touch GOP donor cycles elitist who would bring back the failed policies that caused the recession to begin with. And in 2020, after the first Covid bump, it was quite clear by June that Trump was headed for defeat. As of today, Biden is still in a better position than his predecessor was 4 years ago at this stage. Yet he's still struggling key battlegrounds despite a deeply flawed opponent, a decent economy and huge cash advantage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Betting markets are hardly predictive and jump back an forth. That's notthing special.

That said, and it pains me to say it, if I had to bet right now, I would say Trump winning is at least more likely than not. Whether I'll think that after the first debate and/or beyond, is a different story. As of today, however, it looks more likely that Biden is headed for a loss.

Why do you think Trump will win?

What changed your mind?

Well, what changed my mind? I'm unsure whether my mind has changed all too much, I'm just beginning to think we're slowly running out of time. Or at least begin to wonder what could change in the time left.

I'm not yet predicting an outcome as it's way too early for that. However, initially I expected this cycle to be similar to 2012, in which the incumbent seemed vulnerable through the previous year, but things are improving into the election year. We haven't seen this yet. In spring and early summer 2012, it seemed like Obama was back on track and early definied his challenger as an out-of-touch GOP donor cycles elitist who would bring back the failed policies that caused the recession to begin with. And in 2020, after the first Covid bump, it was quite clear by June that Trump was headed for defeat. As of today, Biden is still in a better position than his predecessor was 4 years ago at this stage. Yet he's still struggling key battlegrounds despite a deeply flawed opponent, a decent economy and huge cash advantage.

Early voting starts Oct 1due to Early voting us in CA live in a safe state it won't matter about CA, IL and NY anyhow, it matters about 275 VA, CO, NM, NV, WI, PA and MI most of Trump leads are MOE 2)5 pts in those states anyways

Do you know what a 1/3 pts lead is 150 K votes

It doesn't matter about markets

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump only dropped ever so slightly. He’s still holding firm.

Clearly the overall feeling is Trump will survive this.

[GoTfan]

Trump only dropped ever so slightly. He’s still holding firm.

Clearly the overall feeling is Trump will survive this.

Holy hell, you really do believe that Trump is above the law.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Trump has gone out to $1.83 on sportsbet.com.au

That is the first time he has gone out in 18 months.

Before the verdict, he was $1.73.



,

[BlueSwan]

Trump only dropped ever so slightly. He’s still holding firm.

Clearly the overall feeling is Trump will survive this.

Holy hell, you really do believe that Trump is above the law.

Newsflash, they all do. That's why they are Trump voters. I'm not sure how democrats still haven't realized that NOTHING Trump does will turn them off him.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump rising, Biden falling.

Think it’s time to conclude the conviction had little to none effect.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Betting odds don't actually matter unless its like 80-20. Most online betting is banned in the USA, so its mainly foreigners trying to make a cheap buck off American politics. The first 300 votes counted in Kentucky will be enough to swing these markets 20/30 points.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why is Biden so much stronger in PredictIt than any other market?
It seems to me that if these markets were informative at all, there would be much more convergence among then.

[Eraserhead]

I think Trump is a bit more likely to win than not but his numbers in these markets seem pretty inflated.