UNH: MA (Biden +36), RI (Biden +20), NH (Biden +4)

[wbrocks67]

NH:
Biden 52, Trump 48
Biden 44, Trump 41, RFK Jr. 3, Stein 2, West 1, Someone else 1, Don’t know 8
https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/794/

MA:
Biden 68, Trump 32
Biden 55, Trump 26, RFK Jr. 10, Stein 2, West 1, Someone else 3, Not sure 4
https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/792/

RI:
Biden 60, Trump 40
Biden 52, Trump 33, RFK Jr. 6, West 1, Stein 0, Someone else 2, Not sure 5
https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/793/

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting!

Suggests whatever is going on in NY polling is specific to NYC (except maybe spilling into NJ).

[kwabbit]

Checks out, similar to 2020 in each. 3 pt shift right in NH, 1 pt shift right in RI, 3 pts left in MA. MA/CO are probably the best states for Biden relative to 2020 based on demographic shifts observed in polling.

[SnowLabrador]

I believe the MA numbers. Even if Trump wins in a landslide, he's not coming close here.

[wbrocks67]

2020 NH recall: Biden +5
result: Biden +4

2020 RI recall: Biden +20
result: Biden +20

2020 MA recall: Biden +28
result: Biden +36

Another Nate Cohn special... Biden doing completely fine with 2020 voters. Those pesky non-voters though again!

[Fancyarcher]

Not great for Biden. Trump breaking 40% in Rhode Island would be eyebrow raising.

Then again UNH is not a great poster, and completely flopped in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

Not great for Biden. Trump breaking 40% in Rhode Island would be eyebrow raising.

Then again UNH is not a great poster, and completely flopped in 2022.

RI was Biden 59-39 in 2020...

[GAinDC]

Not great for Biden. Trump breaking 40% in Rhode Island would be eyebrow raising.

Then again UNH is not a great poster, and completely flopped in 2022.

what?? That would pretty much mirror the 2020 vote

I swear, not everything is bad for Biden just because people want it to be

[wbrocks67]

Interesting!

Suggests whatever is going on in NY polling is specific to NYC (except maybe spilling into NJ).

Unsurprisingly, I think the NY stuff comes down to the nonwhite samples. Biden seems to be doing fine with white voters there

[Fancyarcher]

Not great for Biden. Trump breaking 40% in Rhode Island would be eyebrow raising.

Then again UNH is not a great poster, and completely flopped in 2022.

RI was Biden 59-39 in 2020...

2020 was technically 38% in Rhode Island, and that New Hampshire swing suggests three points to the right, which would mean a potential Trump EC win.

It's not a great poll for Biden. It's not bad yes, but it doesn't suggest promise either.

[Harlow]

Small sub-sample sizes, but that MA poll has Kennedy leading with 48% in Central MA (60 respondents) and beating Trump 18-15% in the Southern/Cape & Islands region (97 respondents).

No chance is that first subsample accurate but the second one could theoretically be due to the Kennedy connection on the Cape, and considering Perot had some of his best results in the region in 1992, showing it has somewhat of an independent streak.

[Fusternino]

Makes sense. I expect New England and the PNW ("including" Colorado) to trend left.

[Dan the Roman]

2020 NH recall: Biden +5
result: Biden +4

2020 RI recall: Biden +20
result: Biden +20

2020 MA recall: Biden +28
result: Biden +36

Another Nate Cohn special... Biden doing completely fine with 2020 voters. Those pesky non-voters though again!

I think the question is what's the definition of "fine". Biden won the 2020 election with at most a 2% margin of error. I agree it's unlikely these new voters show up in the numbers predicted. But if Biden suffers a 1% or so swing among 2020 voters and a few do, that's putting him in hazardous territory.

It's worth noting as well that New England historically has extremely high turnout, so the pool of non voters is smaller.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Interesting!

Suggests whatever is going on in NY polling is specific to NYC (except maybe spilling into NJ).

Well NH and RI don't have a big city really like New York. MA has Boston, but MA is very hostile to Trump ideology.

Biden will likely win NH, nothing really to see here, margins also make sense.

Might be good news also potentially for Biden in Maine, but if anything even if he's in trouble, i suspect RCV basically will keep it blue in worst case scenario, except for the 2nd district.

Small sub-sample sizes, but that MA poll has Kennedy leading with 48% in Central MA (60 respondents) and beating Trump 18-15% in the Southern/Cape & Islands region (97 respondents).

No chance is that first subsample accurate but the second one could theoretically be due to the Kennedy connection on the Cape, and considering Perot had some of his best results in the region in 1992, showing it has somewhat of an independent streak.

HHe probably will do fine in parts of the state, especially rural MA i imagine.

[wbrocks67]

2020 NH recall: Biden +5
result: Biden +4

2020 RI recall: Biden +20
result: Biden +20

2020 MA recall: Biden +28
result: Biden +36

Another Nate Cohn special... Biden doing completely fine with 2020 voters. Those pesky non-voters though again!

I think the question is what's the definition of "fine". Biden won the 2020 election with at most a 2% margin of error. I agree it's unlikely these new voters show up in the numbers predicted. But if Biden suffers a 1% or so swing among 2020 voters and a few do, that's putting him in hazardous territory.

It's worth noting as well that New England historically has extremely high turnout, so the pool of non voters is smaller.

Now the 2020 numbers aren't good enough for some people? This is getting a bit ridiculous.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

2020 NH recall: Biden +5
result: Biden +4

2020 RI recall: Biden +20
result: Biden +20

2020 MA recall: Biden +28
result: Biden +36

Another Nate Cohn special... Biden doing completely fine with 2020 voters. Those pesky non-voters though again!

I think the question is what's the definition of "fine". Biden won the 2020 election with at most a 2% margin of error. I agree it's unlikely these new voters show up in the numbers predicted. But if Biden suffers a 1% or so swing among 2020 voters and a few do, that's putting him in hazardous territory.

It's worth noting as well that New England historically has extremely high turnout, so the pool of non voters is smaller.

Now the 2020 numbers aren't good enough for some people? This is getting a bit ridiculous.

Also swings are not uniform.

[Dan the Roman]

2020 NH recall: Biden +5
result: Biden +4

2020 RI recall: Biden +20
result: Biden +20

2020 MA recall: Biden +28
result: Biden +36

Another Nate Cohn special... Biden doing completely fine with 2020 voters. Those pesky non-voters though again!

I think the question is what's the definition of "fine". Biden won the 2020 election with at most a 2% margin of error. I agree it's unlikely these new voters show up in the numbers predicted. But if Biden suffers a 1% or so swing among 2020 voters and a few do, that's putting him in hazardous territory.

It's worth noting as well that New England historically has extremely high turnout, so the pool of non voters is smaller.

Now the 2020 numbers aren't good enough for some people? This is getting a bit ridiculous.

It's simple math. Biden had everything in his favor and won by one of the closest margins in history after 2000. Doing  slightly worse than 2020 isn't good enough when he has no reserves. If the new/unlikely voters are heavily against him then almost any new influx will be enough to topple him if he can't build up a cushion among the 2020 electorate.

Because if these unlikely Trump voters exist SOME will end up voting.

So yes if Biden does 1% worse among 2020 voters and loses new voters by 10% he is likely losing no matter the turnout of the latter.

Debates about how likely they are to vote is mostly about whether it's plausible Trump wins the PV. He dosent need that to win the electoral college

[emailking]

2020 NH recall: Biden +5
result: Biden +4

2020 RI recall: Biden +20
result: Biden +20

2020 MA recall: Biden +28
result: Biden +36

Another Nate Cohn special... Biden doing completely fine with 2020 voters. Those pesky non-voters though again!

What are the recall and result numbers in your post? What does that mean?

[NOVA Green]

2020 NH recall: Biden +5
result: Biden +4

2020 RI recall: Biden +20
result: Biden +20

2020 MA recall: Biden +28
result: Biden +36

Another Nate Cohn special... Biden doing completely fine with 2020 voters. Those pesky non-voters though again!

I think the question is what's the definition of "fine". Biden won the 2020 election with at most a 2% margin of error. I agree it's unlikely these new voters show up in the numbers predicted. But if Biden suffers a 1% or so swing among 2020 voters and a few do, that's putting him in hazardous territory.

It's worth noting as well that New England historically has extremely high turnout, so the pool of non voters is smaller.

Now the 2020 numbers aren't good enough for some people? This is getting a bit ridiculous.

Also swings are not uniform.

These are simple data points, no more no less, toss them into the hopper and avoid all of these subsamples which is basically "Atlas Crack", but ultimately a bit "bunk", especially when it comes to state polling.

[wbrocks67]

2020 NH recall: Biden +5
result: Biden +4

2020 RI recall: Biden +20
result: Biden +20

2020 MA recall: Biden +28
result: Biden +36

Another Nate Cohn special... Biden doing completely fine with 2020 voters. Those pesky non-voters though again!

What are the recall and result numbers in your post? What does that mean?

They have numbers on who people voted for in 2020, so those are their 2020 recalls. So what I'm saying is the poll result for right now lines up greatly with their 2020 #s. Which means Biden is keeping all of his 2020 voters, basically