Cook Political Report/GSG/BSG Swing states poll: Close everywhere except NV/NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Early voting starts in Sept Ds in blue states especially NV did well in 2018/20/22

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People need to go to NV and AZ and see there are D signs in Maricopa and Clark county they aren't R states but if you go to Austin TX those are Trump counties

I travel since I live in CA that AZ and NV are D states and TX is an R state, just travel

[wbrocks67]

Once again, Biden doing completely fine among those who are engaged and typically vote

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1796235468117578036

[dspNY]

Once again, Biden doing completely fine among those who are engaged and typically vote

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1796235468117578036

That would also explain why a felony conviction hurts Trump in the polls. Such a news headline would break through all the mess and reach the less engaged or non-engaged

[wbrocks67]

The thing that pollsters need to explain though, which may come when we do more LV models, is are these people voting or not? There's a difference between meh engagement and someone who typically does not vote. If they typically do not vote, what reason do we have to suggest they will this year?

[Spectator]

The swing state polling still doesn’t look great but this poll does show the sun belt slowly getting bluer and more competitive. Arizona is a 1 point Biden deficit and the last three Georgia polls show a narrowing race (3 points or so). Nevada is all over the place. It shouldn’t be a hard state to poll but we’re getting wildly different results (either a tie or Likely R)

Biden won't win any of the Sunbelt States, certainly not States he barely won like GA & AZ in 2020 when Democrats had a much better National Political Environment.

Pres Bidens most likely path now to 270 Electoral College Votes is Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and either Nebraskas 2nd Congressional District (which would get him to excatly 270) or Nevada (which would give him 275).

People said the exact same thing leading up to 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The NV poll Trump +9 is the silliest polls like Trump +12 Vegas and Henderson are gonna turn out Ds

[wbrocks67]

It feels wild to say that Biden is doing so bad when he is doing well with people who *vote*

Which side would you rather be on - doing better with people who normally vote, or who don't? The people who are less engaged are more flimsy than anything, so you wouldn't want to hang your hat on that group imo. Knowing you're doing well with the people who actually turnout is probably one of the best pieces of news the campaign could get.

[xavier110]

Any non paywall version or summary?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It feels wild to say that Biden is doing so bad when he is doing well with people who *vote*

Which side would you rather be on - doing better with people who normally vote, or who don't? The people who are less engaged are more flimsy than anything, so you wouldn't want to hang your hat on that group imo. Knowing you're doing well with the people who actually turnout is probably one of the best pieces of news the campaign could get.

An OUTPARTY average is 20 H seats and 3 Sen seats so Rs are underperforming ANYWAYS , the Rs underperform in the Prez in 2012 but did what they supposed to do in H win 230 HS in 2012

I'm the S we are gonna win AZ, OH and MD and NE, TX and MT are too close to call TX S goes D if Trump is convicted

[SnowLabrador]

It feels wild to say that Biden is doing so bad when he is doing well with people who *vote*

Which side would you rather be on - doing better with people who normally vote, or who don't? The people who are less engaged are more flimsy than anything, so you wouldn't want to hang your hat on that group imo. Knowing you're doing well with the people who actually turnout is probably one of the best pieces of news the campaign could get.

But we don't know how high turnout will be. A vote is a vote no matter how enthusiastic (or otherwise) the person who casts it may be.