HPU NC - Trump +2

[Bush did 311]

Seems spot on, I'd be surprised if Trump doesn't win NC by roughly this margin (2 points, give or take 1). North Carolina already feels like what Florida was not long ago, a state that constantly gives Democrats hope with it's closeness, yet always falls short of providing any victories for the party.

I feel NC will be more likely to go down the path of GA in the future than FL.

NC is following a similar trajectory when it comes to Voter Registrations like FL, not as dramatic as the Sunshine State but slowly but surely. By 2028 Republicans will have more Registered Voters compared to D's in the Tar Heel State.

As the D to R registration advantage in the state has shrank, dems have gotten better margins in presidential elections in the state over time. NC has semi-open primaries and there is little reason to register for a party. If you're unaffiliated you can vote in either primary, but if you pick a party you are locked into voting in that party's primary. Because of this, young voters are registering as unaffiliated.

Florida has closed primaries so voters aren't registering as unaffiliated with the same strategy in mind.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need NC or GA it's gonna come down whomever wins NV and that's the clincher and Rosen isn't up 1o and neither is Trump

Bush W when it was an R yr in 2004 didn't win NV by 10 it was 4

[Ljube]

We don't need NC or GA it's gonna come down whomever wins NV and that's the clincher and Rosen isn't up 1o and neither is Trump

Bush W when it was an R yr in 2004 didn't win NV by 10 it was 4

Are you conceding Georgia?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, AZ, GA, and NC aren't part of 270, NV, NE 2 and ME 2 gives us 271. GA, AZ, NC, they are wave insurance apart from TX and FL, Ds do very well in swing R states KY, MT, OH, because of the Abbott and DeSantis machines


But Biden is doing better than Stein in NC he is down 2 and Stein is down 5