HPU NC - Trump +2

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1793607521472753709?s=46

Trump - 44
Biden - 42

[SnowLabrador]

It's odd to see Robinson running ahead of Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Guess NC is gonna be Trump +2 or Trump +10 lol

[iceman]

at 37% approvals there’s no way Biden win North Carolina. He is better writing off this state and divert his resources elsewhere else.

[wbrocks67]

at 37% approvals there’s no way Biden win North Carolina. He is better writing off this state and divert his resources elsewhere else.

once again - "here's how Biden duplicating his 2020 margin is bad for him"

[2016]

at 37% approvals there’s no way Biden win North Carolina. He is better writing off this state and divert his resources elsewhere else.

Agreed! Near impossible to win with those sort of Numbers. There is a reason why most "Non Partisan" Political Handicappers have NC as Lean R and I do think most of the Polls (if you average them out) have Trump leading between 6 and 8 Points.

[Dave Hedgehog]

It's odd to see Robinson running ahead of Trump.

I don’t buy that he is going to underperform on the day as others do. I just don’t see who the people are who’ll vote for Drumpf after all he’s shown himself to be but consider Robinson a step too far.

[iceman]

at 37% approvals there’s no way Biden win North Carolina. He is better writing off this state and divert his resources elsewhere else.

Agreed! Near impossible to win with those sort of Numbers. There is a reason why most "Non Partisan" Political Handicappers have NC as Lean R and I do think most of the Polls (if you average them out) have Trump leading between 6 and 8 Points.

If Trump indeed is going to get around 15-18% of the AA vote, then I wouldnt be surprise if he ends up winning the state by high single digits. It would probably much more evident in the 1st congressional district rather than NC-04 or NC-12.

[DrScholl]

at 37% approvals there’s no way Biden win North Carolina. He is better writing off this state and divert his resources elsewhere else.

Not everyone who disapproves of Biden will vote for Trump.

at 37% approvals there’s no way Biden win North Carolina. He is better writing off this state and divert his resources elsewhere else.

Agreed! Near impossible to win with those sort of Numbers. There is a reason why most "Non Partisan" Political Handicappers have NC as Lean R and I do think most of the Polls (if you average them out) have Trump leading between 6 and 8 Points.

If Trump indeed is going to get around 15-18% of the AA vote, then I wouldnt be surprise if he ends up winning the state by high single digits. It would probably much more evident in the 1st congressional district rather than NC-04 or NC-12.

He's not getting that much of the Black vote. If he was he wouldn't be getting only +2 in this poll. Duh.

[2016]

at 37% approvals there’s no way Biden win North Carolina. He is better writing off this state and divert his resources elsewhere else.

Agreed! Near impossible to win with those sort of Numbers. There is a reason why most "Non Partisan" Political Handicappers have NC as Lean R and I do think most of the Polls (if you average them out) have Trump leading between 6 and 8 Points.

If Trump indeed is going to get around 15-18% of the AA vote, then I wouldnt be surprise if he ends up winning the state by high single digits. It would probably much more evident in the 1st congressional district rather than NC-04 or NC-12.

The one big reason why North Carolina hasn't flipped to Democrats despite Hillary Clinton & Joe Biden making multiple efforts to do it is the "Robust Republican State Party". It's not as strong as the Florida GOP but it's still decent and they had two fantastic Chairman for the 2016 Election (Dallas Woodhouse) and 2020 (Michael Whatley).

Remember this: Biden had a near 300,000 Raw Vote lead when the NC Numbers got released at 8.15pm on E-Night 2020. By any stretch of imagination that should have been enough for D's to carry the State. They didn't. By the end of the Night Trump had a 75,000 Vote lead and Tillis a 96,000 Vote lead.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Definitly Lean R at this Point in time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have it toss up

[President Johnson]

Polls seem to have tightened in North Carolina and Georgia. I'd consider them as tossup, or the former maybe Tilt Republican.

[2016]

Polls seem to have tightened in North Carolina and Georgia. I'd consider them as tossup, or the former maybe Tilt Republican.

Wishcasting! Trump will win both States and the only Sunbelt State Biden won in 2020 where I consider Biden to have a shot in is AZ.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls seem to have tightened in North Carolina and Georgia. I'd consider them as tossup, or the former maybe Tilt Republican.

Wishcasting! Trump will win both States and the only Sunbelt State Biden won in 2020 where I consider Biden to have a shot in is AZ.

All we need is NV but have you heard of Cooper 60% Approvals in NC 2 pts is not that bad where we lost the state by 1.5

[DrScholl]

Polls seem to have tightened in North Carolina and Georgia. I'd consider them as tossup, or the former maybe Tilt Republican.

Wishcasting! Trump will win both States and the only Sunbelt State Biden won in 2020 where I consider Biden to have a shot in is AZ.

Others are entitled to an opinion. Stop using exclamation points to bully people.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only safe states are TX, FL and OH for Trump, the others are battleground NC, GA, AZ and NV

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Polls seem to have tightened in North Carolina and Georgia. I'd consider them as tossup, or the former maybe Tilt Republican.

I think this is more just Biden consolatiing his base. We see a similar thing in the rust belt (for example MI no longer poses gargantuan Trump leads like it used to)

[2016]

The Trump Campaign should be reasonably confident in NC. Here is why:

# 1 Former NC GOP Chairman Michael Whatley, now heading the RNC + Lara Trump are from NC.
# 2 The very robust NC State Party.
# 3 No Roy Cooper on the Ballot this time (He likely had reverse coattails for Biden in 2020) and while Josh Stein is a decent Candidate he is no Roy Cooper.
# 4 No Senate Race to drive up additional Turnout for D's like they had in 2016 & 2020.
# 5 Republicans have cut the D-Voter Registration Edge by almost 250,000 since the 2020 Presidential Election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But, Cooper won by 4 and the Gov race is kneck and kneck like we supposed to go by that Robinson poll that has him up 5, but having said that it's wave insurance we are gonna get any variation of a Trump or Biden win of 270 to 319

[dspNY]

The only chance Biden has in NC is if Mark Robinson does so many uniquely repulsive things that it drags the entire GOP ticket down with him. Even with that, I still can’t see anything better for the Dems than this result, Trump +2

[TDAS04]

Seems spot on, I'd be surprised if Trump doesn't win NC by roughly this margin (2 points, give or take 1). North Carolina already feels like what Florida was not long ago, a state that constantly gives Democrats hope with it's closeness, yet always falls short of providing any victories for the party.

[Tekken_Guy]

Seems spot on, I'd be surprised if Trump doesn't win NC by roughly this margin (2 points, give or take 1). North Carolina already feels like what Florida was not long ago, a state that constantly gives Democrats hope with it's closeness, yet always falls short of providing any victories for the party.

I feel NC will be more likely to go down the path of GA in the future than FL.

[NOVA Green]

Biden needs to show up in NC and talk about how the furniture MFG jobs got lost because of Walmart and Republican led Free trade agreements with China.

[2016]

Seems spot on, I'd be surprised if Trump doesn't win NC by roughly this margin (2 points, give or take 1). North Carolina already feels like what Florida was not long ago, a state that constantly gives Democrats hope with it's closeness, yet always falls short of providing any victories for the party.

I feel NC will be more likely to go down the path of GA in the future than FL.

NC is following a similar trajectory when it comes to Voter Registrations like FL, not as dramatic as the Sunshine State but slowly but surely. By 2028 Republicans will have more Registered Voters compared to D's in the Tar Heel State.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need NC but a Biden victory can expand from 270 to 319 and Robinson and Stein are 2)3 pts apart as I said that's 150 K

Blks are a key constituency in GA, AZ, and NC like VA

All we need is 275 that includes NV