There should be a caveat that Vanderbilt tends to always dramatically underestimate Republican margins.
Most safe state polling tends to underestimate the winning party in general.
Vanderbilt specifically is bad. They had Trump +9 in May 2020.
It's funny how some college pollsters are just consistently really bad or biased. They don't face any economic incentives to improve so they just don't change their methodology. You would think there would be some self-reflection after consistently underrating Republicans by 15 points, but they just don't give af.