AZ: Noble Predictive Insights: Trump +3 (H2H), +7 (field)
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  AZ: Noble Predictive Insights: Trump +3 (H2H), +7 (field)		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: AZ: Noble Predictive Insights: Trump +3 (H2H), +7 (field)  (Read 325 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« on: May 22, 2024, 10:10:09 AM »
New Poll: Arizona President by Noble Predictive Insights on 2024-05-14

Summary: D: 36%, R: 43%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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Jamaica
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E: -6.84, S: -0.17

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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2024, 10:14:16 AM »
RFK is on the ballot in AZ so it's +3
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Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2024, 11:03:04 AM »
I was actually polled for this one, but I don't recall them asking me about the Presidential race.
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2024, 11:06:21 AM »
What was the last poll?
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xavier110
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2024, 11:42:02 AM »
Noble was very all over the place until landing in a safe spot in their final 2022 poll (they still had Lake winning but they had it close, either by 1 or 2 points, with her under 50 percent).

I maintain that the realistic range of possible outcomes here is Biden +1.5/2 (basically Kelly 2020) to Trump+3 (his 2016 performance). There will not be any result outside this range, and every election result since 2016 suggests the MAGA folks, including Trump, will underperform their polls here.
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