Which years will Italy and Poland most likely legalize same-sex marriage by?
I'm hoping Italy by the end of the decade, 2030.
Poland, I'm hoping by 2035, more likely 2040. Interestingly, Russia's worsening crackdown on LGBTQ rights has actually raised its popularity in countries strongly opposed to Putin (and skeptical of Russian foreign policy at best), which might slightly move it up, like how Estonia legalized it a few months ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Europe#/media/File:Same-sex_marriage_map_Europe_detailed.svg