5/21/24 primary results in KY, GA, ID, and OR thread.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like a good night for the more moderate Dems in Oregon. Progressive Multnomah County DA Mike Schmidt is going down big with half the vote in.

Have to see what happens with the mail-ins. Lack of any map of the results makes it hard to analyze these totals.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Looks like a good night for the more moderate Dems in Oregon. Progressive Multnomah County DA Mike Schmidt is going down big with half the vote in.

Jayapal's sister also goes down big. Thank God

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like a good night for the more moderate Dems in Oregon. Progressive Multnomah County DA Mike Schmidt is going down big with half the vote in.

Jayapal's sister also goes down big. Thank God

Hopefully we can defeat the incumbent Jayapal in August

[Minnesota Mike]

Mike Simpson is going to win ID-02 easily due to the fact it's a 3 way race but he's currently only at 56%. What did he do to piss off half the base?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mike Simpson is going to win ID-02 easily due to the fact it's a 3 way race but he's currently only at 56%. What did he do to piss off half the base?

He has been there forever and is seen as part of the old, pre-Trump establishment.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Looks like a good night for the more moderate Dems in Oregon. Progressive Multnomah County DA Mike Schmidt is going down big with half the vote in.

Have to see what happens with the mail-ins. Lack of any map of the results makes it hard to analyze these totals.

All votes in Oregon are mail-ins

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like a good night for the more moderate Dems in Oregon. Progressive Multnomah County DA Mike Schmidt is going down big with half the vote in.

Have to see what happens with the mail-ins. Lack of any map of the results makes it hard to analyze these totals.

All votes in Oregon are mail-ins

whatever the later counted votes are called 

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.opb.org/article/2024/05/21/multnomah-county-district-attorney-nathan-vasquez-mike-schmidt-portland-oregon/

Vasquez was a Republican as late as 2017 and could get elected in Multnomah County

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Catastrophic night for progressives in Oregon. I think we all knew Jamie McLeod-Skinner would lose, but wow that margin is more than I was expecting -- Janelle Bynum is even winning Bend in a landslide.

And in OR-03, I assumed Susheela Jayapal would coast to the nomination. I didn't follow this race closely but I had never even heard of Maxine Dexter until today, and it looks like she'll be Portland's next Congresswoman. Maybe Portlanders are sick of the dysfunction caused by progressive policies in their city, or maybe progressives just didn't bother to show up to vote because they're too busy sitting in a Gaza encampment?

[Minnesota Mike]

Mike Simpson is going to win ID-02 easily due to the fact it's a 3 way race but he's currently only at 56%. What did he do to piss off half the base?

He has been there forever and is seen as part of the old, pre-Trump establishment.

IIRC he does have the Trump endorsement.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Oregon’s primary was surprisingly boring

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon’s primary was surprisingly boring

The Multnomah County DA race is big though.

[NOVA Green]

Catastrophic night for progressives in Oregon. I think we all knew Jamie McLeod-Skinner would lose, but wow that margin is more than I was expecting -- Janelle Bynum is even winning Bend in a landslide.

And in OR-03, I assumed Susheela Jayapal would coast to the nomination. I didn't follow this race closely but I had never even heard of Maxine Dexter until today, and it looks like she'll be Portland's next Congresswoman. Maybe Portlanders are sick of the dysfunction caused by progressive policies in their city, or maybe progressives just didn't bother to show up to vote because they're too busy sitting in a Gaza encampment?

There are a lot of Progressive OR-DEMs who voted for Bynum, including much of my family.

MSM created perhaps some more significant policy differences than should be the case.

The reason many of us voted to toss Schrader was because he was bucking the Biden Human Infrastructure package, recognizing it might lead to a "rented seat" for an election cycle.

Your snide words regarding "Gaza Encampments" apparently involve some sort of weird stereotype you might have of Portland Oregon from MSM and Right-Wing media outlets or possibly binge watching episodes of Portlandia for the first time.

Regardless of "hot takes" may I humbly suggest you stand down opining on the voting patterns of Oregon Democrats and create false framing narratives based upon presumptions without at least backing it up with some real sources?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

ID-2 R: Simpson

[Minnesota Mike]

A little farther down the ballot I count 7 incumbent state senators and 9 incumbent state reps losing Republican primaries in Idaho. I'm not going to waste my time figuring out who was the most conservative in each race but it seems like Idaho may be getting even more wacko.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Catastrophic night for progressives in Oregon. I think we all knew Jamie McLeod-Skinner would lose, but wow that margin is more than I was expecting -- Janelle Bynum is even winning Bend in a landslide.

And in OR-03, I assumed Susheela Jayapal would coast to the nomination. I didn't follow this race closely but I had never even heard of Maxine Dexter until today, and it looks like she'll be Portland's next Congresswoman. Maybe Portlanders are sick of the dysfunction caused by progressive policies in their city, or maybe progressives just didn't bother to show up to vote because they're too busy sitting in a Gaza encampment?

There are a lot of Progressive OR-DEMs who voted for Bynum, including much of my family.

MSM created perhaps some more significant policy differences than should be the case.

The reason many of us voted to toss Schrader was because he was bucking the Biden Human Infrastructure package, recognizing it might lead to a "rented seat" for an election cycle.

Your snide words regarding "Gaza Encampments" apparently involve some sort of weird stereotype you might have of Portland Oregon from MSM and Right-Wing media outlets or possibly binge watching episodes of Portlandia for the first time.

Regardless of "hot takes" may I humbly suggest you stand down opining on the voting patterns of Oregon Democrats and create false framing narratives based upon presumptions without at least backing it up with some real sources?

My comment was sarcastic due to my distaste for progressive politics and wasn't intended to create a "false framing narrative", but I do wonder what happened there for the more moderate candidate to win in progressive Portland. And yes, I do think progressives just not wanting to vote because of Palestine could be a factor here (I am aware they are not literally sitting in an encampment). I have no evidence to back this up, just putting forth a theory. I am also reading that AIPAC spent big on behalf of Dexter.

[xavier110]

A little farther down the ballot I count 7 incumbent state senators and 9 incumbent state reps losing Republican primaries in Idaho. I'm not going to waste my time figuring out who was the most conservative in each race but it seems like Idaho may be getting even more wacko.

So far, the “moderates” are doing well in rematch races. Woodward, who backpedaled on severe abortion restrictions, is well ahead of Herndon, who claims to be an abortion abolitionist, in the most publicized race of the year.

[NOVA Green]

Catastrophic night for progressives in Oregon. I think we all knew Jamie McLeod-Skinner would lose, but wow that margin is more than I was expecting -- Janelle Bynum is even winning Bend in a landslide.

And in OR-03, I assumed Susheela Jayapal would coast to the nomination. I didn't follow this race closely but I had never even heard of Maxine Dexter until today, and it looks like she'll be Portland's next Congresswoman. Maybe Portlanders are sick of the dysfunction caused by progressive policies in their city, or maybe progressives just didn't bother to show up to vote because they're too busy sitting in a Gaza encampment?

There are a lot of Progressive OR-DEMs who voted for Bynum, including much of my family.

MSM created perhaps some more significant policy differences than should be the case.

The reason many of us voted to toss Schrader was because he was bucking the Biden Human Infrastructure package, recognizing it might lead to a "rented seat" for an election cycle.

Your snide words regarding "Gaza Encampments" apparently involve some sort of weird stereotype you might have of Portland Oregon from MSM and Right-Wing media outlets or possibly binge watching episodes of Portlandia for the first time.

Regardless of "hot takes" may I humbly suggest you stand down opining on the voting patterns of Oregon Democrats and create false framing narratives based upon presumptions without at least backing it up with some real sources?

My comment was sarcastic due to my distaste for progressive politics and wasn't intended to create a "false framing narrative", but I do wonder what happened there for the more moderate candidate to win in progressive Portland. And yes, I do think progressives just not wanting to vote because of Palestine could be a factor here (I am aware they are not literally sitting in an encampment). I have no evidence to back this up, just putting forth a theory. I am also reading that AIPAC spent big on behalf of Dexter.

Fair enough and thank you for your acknowledgment regarding "distaste for progressive politics".

As I stated earlier Oregonian Progressives are complicated and in many cases voters look at issues like electability and not just "absolutism" or "aspirational" political perspectives.

Although we haven't lived in PDX since '17, still have a Daughter, Son-In-Law and a one year old Grandson living in West PDX (Not in CD-03).

I should note that the Left Leaning weekly free street rag Willamette Week did endorse Dexter.

I am not sure what evidence you have regarding "AIPAC backing Dexter", but from my reading it looks like perhaps voters thought Dexter might be a better candidate to deal with what is a real massive homeless problem caused by lack of affordable housing.

My suggestion would be that CD-03 voters were not voting on the basis of a "Progressive Agenda" but rather which candidate had the best policy positions to address what is actually one of the foremost concerns for many voters in one of the most Progressive DEM CD's in the Country.

Again, thank you very much for explaining your perspectives while hopefully I help present my argument that this is not an election result when it comes to "Centrist DEMs vs Progressive DEMs", but rather two relatively Progressive DEMs who are looking at candidates and saying which one might be better at helping to solve real problems in our community.

Peace, Love, and Solidarity and hoping I didn't harsh on you too much, but still wanted to point out that in many cases all politics are local to some extent and not nationalized.

"Dexter, 51, a Kaiser pulmonologist, probably had the most opportunity. In the four years since she was appointed to a Northwest Portland House seat, she rose near the top of her caucus, chairing the Housing and Homelessness Committee in the most recent legislative session. That means she shares credit for passing the most substantive housing package in a decade—one that includes both state funding and a snipping of land use red tape to spur the development of new homes. The housing bill was the brainchild of Gov. Tina Kotek, but Dexter largely executed it. Her high grades in our biannual survey show that Salem insiders her consider her one of the state’s most effective lawmakers.

Jayapal, 62, is a former Adidas attorney elected to the Multnomah County Board of Commissioners in 2018. Voters might wonder where she’s been since then. So do we: The past six years have seen the county lose its bearings even as it enjoyed a windfall of taxpayer dollars earmarked to serve people sleeping outdoors. Jayapal did little to right the ship, or to spur Chairs Deborah Kafoury or Jessica Vega Pederson into action. She had little clout to change the course of the county, but—as noted above—that’s a similar situation to the one she’ll find on Capitol Hill. There’s nothing in her track record to suggest she can lead from behind."

https://www.wweek.com/news/2024/05/01/wws-may-2024-endorsements-congress/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Some of the later submitted ballots have come in in Multnomah, DA margin has narrowed from 58-42 to 56-43. Still ~31% of the vote outstanding.

[S019]

2% isn't enough if the percentage reporting really went up by 29%. That means this last 31% needs to be vastly different from what we have seen thus far.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Vasquez wins !!!!!

https://twitter.com/fox12oregon/status/1793136989996233134

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Vasquez wins !!!!!

https://twitter.com/fox12oregon/status/1793136989996233134

He really must have run up the numbers outside of Portland.

[NOVA Green]

Vasquez wins !!!!!

https://twitter.com/fox12oregon/status/1793136989996233134

He really must have run up the numbers outside of Portland.

Doesn't quite work like that considering vast majority of voters reside in the City of Roses.

Sure results can and will change with so many ballots left to be counted, but just spit balling it looks like he did really well in West Portland.

It also looks like he kept numbers down and even won outright in multiple precincts in East PDX.

Based upon early results would not be surprised if Vasquez ends up winning the City of Portland regardless of some of the early results looking like he is bagging something like 65-70% of votes in the East Multnomah County 'Burbs.

https://results.oregonvotes.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWNON&map=CTY

Here's the precinct map page if anyone is curious.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/9be34438fc404b2494a48f7a668914f2

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Vasquez wins !!!!!

https://twitter.com/fox12oregon/status/1793136989996233134

He really must have run up the numbers outside of Portland.

Doesn't quite work like that considering vast majority of voters reside in the City of Roses.

Sure results can and will change with so many ballots left to be counted, but just spit balling it looks like he did really well in West Portland.

It also looks like he kept numbers down and even won outright in multiple precincts in East PDX.

Based upon early results would not be surprised if Vasquez ends up winning the City of Portland regardless of some of the early results looking like he is bagging something like 65-70% of votes in the East Multnomah County 'Burbs.

https://results.oregonvotes.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWNON&map=CTY

Here's the precinct map page if anyone is curious.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/9be34438fc404b2494a48f7a668914f2

15% of the vote or so coming from Multnomah outside Portland is what I'd personally expect.

[NOVA Green]

Vasquez wins !!!!!

https://twitter.com/fox12oregon/status/1793136989996233134

He really must have run up the numbers outside of Portland.

Doesn't quite work like that considering vast majority of voters reside in the City of Roses.

Sure results can and will change with so many ballots left to be counted, but just spit balling it looks like he did really well in West Portland.

It also looks like he kept numbers down and even won outright in multiple precincts in East PDX.

Based upon early results would not be surprised if Vasquez ends up winning the City of Portland regardless of some of the early results looking like he is bagging something like 65-70% of votes in the East Multnomah County 'Burbs.

https://results.oregonvotes.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWNON&map=CTY

Here's the precinct map page if anyone is curious.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/9be34438fc404b2494a48f7a668914f2

15% of the vote or so coming from Multnomah outside Portland is what I'd personally expect.

Fair enough... should also be considered that unlike many states this would be a non-partisan election so Indies can vote!