If Phil Scott runs for an open senate seat in VT, would he win?

[David Hume]

Phil Scott is more popular in VT than Hogan in MD, and also more liberal than Hogan. VT is a much smaller state so his personal brand is easier to beat the partisanship. He constantly wins 2/3 majority. In 2020, he won by 41%, while Trump lost by 35%. While federal races are different from gubernatorial, and D did not seriously contest the race, this is still extremely impressive. In fact, this may be the largest overperformance in recent history.

How likely do you think he would win?

[wnwnwn]

No. He could oveperform Trump by 10%, but only that.

[quesaisje]

No, because he wouldn't want to.

[TML]

Ask Mike Sullivan how he won an open Senate seat in WY in 1994.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

He would win without much difficulty. Phil Scott is popular enough and liberal enough that the only objection would be the R logo on his name. As long as he refuses to support McConnell and vows to take moderate stances he should be fine. Federal partisanship alone is not going to erase nearly 50 points of margins. It also heavily depends who his opponent is though as well.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

He probably wouldn't win, but he would overperform typical Republican margins by 25+ points.

[Mr. Smith]

Not as a Republican.  Same reason Bullock couldn't win in 2020 against Daines.

[MarkD]

There's certainly potential, but it would be an unpredictable race, I think.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

He would win without much difficulty. Phil Scott is popular enough and liberal enough that the only objection would be the R logo on his name. As long as he refuses to support McConnell and vows to take moderate stances he should be fine. Federal partisanship alone is not going to erase nearly 50 points of margins. It also heavily depends who his opponent is though as well.

Yeah he could only win if he promises not to caucus with the Republicans- in which case he isn’t really a Republican.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

People can and do separate their state opinions from federal partisanship

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

People can and do separate their state opinions from federal partisanship

[SnowLabrador]

Probably not, but ask me again after November 5.

[Vice President Christian Man]

He would win without much difficulty. Phil Scott is popular enough and liberal enough that the only objection would be the R logo on his name. As long as he refuses to support McConnell and vows to take moderate stances he should be fine. Federal partisanship alone is not going to erase nearly 50 points of margins. It also heavily depends who his opponent is though as well.

It didn't work for Governor Weld or Governor Bredsen, and Vermont is more Democratic than Tennessee is Republican. Unless we see a Republican wave of some type, the best I could see Scott doing is reducing the race to a single-digit margin.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

He would win without much difficulty. Phil Scott is popular enough and liberal enough that the only objection would be the R logo on his name. As long as he refuses to support McConnell and vows to take moderate stances he should be fine. Federal partisanship alone is not going to erase nearly 50 points of margins. It also heavily depends who his opponent is though as well.

I think he would have to run as an independent.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ask Mike Sullivan how he won an open Senate seat in WY in 1994.

To be fair, Democrats were losing everywhere in 1994.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I voted no, assuming he runs as a Republican.

Although he might have a good chance as an indepent, which to be honest is probably what he would be federally. I really don't see much that he and Angus King would vote differently on. The party label would just hold him back. 

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

He would probably run as a Democrat honestly.

[smoltchanov]

It would be very good, but it's almost impossible now. Federal politics is extremely polarized now (in my 50+ years of observation i don't remember such level of polarization, and doubt that it EVER happened). IMHO - it's extremely bad, but it's a reality. When people like Brian Fitzpatrick are "the most liberal Republican's" in the House and like Susan Collins - in Senate, while Manchin and Golden tend to play similar role for Democrats - something is extremely rotten. But - this is United States of present days. Better then my native Russia? Of course. But - not by that much as even 40 years ago.

[UncleSam]

Phil Scott would win yes, but not as a Republican. He would be an Independent who either does not caucus with a party of who caucuses with Democrats at the federal level.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Zuckerberg would win it would be the same as MD

[nclib]

He would win without much difficulty. Phil Scott is popular enough and liberal enough that the only objection would be the R logo on his name. As long as he refuses to support McConnell and vows to take moderate stances he should be fine. Federal partisanship alone is not going to erase nearly 50 points of margins. It also heavily depends who his opponent is though as well.

Not as a Republican.

William Weld won Mass. Gov. in 1994 by 42.6% and lost Mass. Sen. in 1996 by 7.5%.

[Progressive Pessimist]

See Larry Hogan later this year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There won't be an open seat the reason why Bernie announced was Howard Dean wanted that seat

[Arizona Iced Tea]

He would win without much difficulty. Phil Scott is popular enough and liberal enough that the only objection would be the R logo on his name. As long as he refuses to support McConnell and vows to take moderate stances he should be fine. Federal partisanship alone is not going to erase nearly 50 points of margins. It also heavily depends who his opponent is though as well.

Not as a Republican.

William Weld won Mass. Gov. in 1994 by 42.6% and lost Mass. Sen. in 1996 by 7.5%.

Weld was running against an incumbent though. He would have carried an open seat race for sure.

[JMT]

I think he’d have a good shot (or even be favored) if he ran as an Independent that promised to caucus with Democrats (similar to Angus King). But I don’t think he’d even want to run, so we probably will never know. He’d almost certainly lose if he ran as a Republican.