To those people who say: Trump can't win AZ without Maricopa County you will eat your words Nov 5

[2016]

Biden won Maricopa in 2020 by 45,000+. If he wins it by only 25,000 or 35,000 that could be the difference him winning or losing the State.

Trump has I think now a pathway in AZ where he can win without Maricopa County.

[Boobs]

You don’t really need to make a new thread to respond to the voices inside your head.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

So you're back on the Trump train? That was fast, but predictable.

[RI]

Trump can certainly win Maricopa County regardless.

[2016]

So you're back on the Trump train? That was fast, but predictable.

No, I am not. I am just pointing out that he has a path without Maricopa.

I still hope and think Biden wins the Election by winning MI, PA, WI and either NE-2 or NV (where Polls often underestimate Dems)

I want Biden to win so Republicans get rid of Trump can have a better Night in 2026 + 2028.

[2016]

Trump can certainly win Maricopa County regardless.

He won't. Too many college educated people in Cities like Phoenix, Scottsdale, Mesa, Goodyear.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Biden isn't losing AZ with Gallegos up 13 what happened to  Gov Lake Trafalgar tried it's best to give her the Gov the same with Trump

[7,052,770]

I want Biden to win so Republicans get rid of Trump can have a better Night in 2026 + 2028.

The party gets Trumpier every year. There's no reason to think they'll stop anytime soon.

[cherry mandarin]

There is a path, but it'll make things far easier for him if he can carry Maricopa or at least make it swing right from its 2020 result. The R path to statewide victory in AZ without Maricopa these days is rapidly narrowing, and by November I think Trump will probably need to win it in order to take its 11 electoral votes.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So you're back on the Trump train? That was fast, but predictable.

He's one of those on both the left and right who don't necessarily like Trump, or will vote for him, but will be perfectly content if Trump wins again out of spite for Biden and his supporters.

[Xing]

He can, but probably only just barely, and he'd need to keep Maricopa within 2%. Obviously doable, but Arizona's one state where I really have a hard time believing the polls, even if I do think Biden is probably losing right now.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The NYT poll suggests that the state will vote 6 points to the right of Maricopa. Both primary and midterm results suggest a huge dropoff among Native Americans for Biden.

[Mr. Smith]

No one's won Arizona without Maricopa since Bill Clinton in '96.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A narrow Biden win in Maricopa is compatible with a narrow Trump win statewide.

The issue is as soon as Maricopa starts voting for Biden by more than 5%, it becomes extremely difficult if not practically impossible for Trump to make up the votes elsewhere. Like if Biden nets 100k votes out of Maricopa from then where does Trump make that up? In this scenario Biden is probably matching if not outlining his 2020 showing in Pima County as well.

It’s similar to Nevada - the difference between Clark County voting D+5 and D+10 these days is huge; the former is almost certainly an R win and the latter almost certainly a D win.

[cherry mandarin]

The difference between Clark County voting D+5 and D+10 these days is huge. The former is almost certainly an R win

I'm not entirely convinced this will still hold true for the presidential race this fall.