Around what month would you find polls to be more accurate?

[Obama24]

Myself, I think polling does show an overall trend toward Trump, now, but we are still a little over five months out, and that's an eternity in politics.

My feeling is what the polls show around the week of October 15th or so will be very much what bears out on November 5th, barring some major news between October 15th and November 5th. Whoever polling favors as of October 15th in the swing states, is to my mind, who will ultimately win.

As such, to me, polls don't really become genuinely predictive until October. Right now they're just reflective of the current national mood - but America is bipolar and fickle so that mood can change drastically.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They have been pro Trump since the Primary but Marist has had Biden ahead Biden +3 and Harris X has always had Trump ahead, Trump is never gonna win by 6 blue avatar


Harris X is an R poll by Mark Penn who is part of No Party Label do you think that Ds are gonna listen to him, heck bo

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Fwiw polling in May tends to be fairly accurate to the final results. Like in May 2020 Biden was in the 4-5 range which was very close to the 4.5 November margin. Hillary was slightly ahead of Trump and Obama was ahead a few points of Romney right now. Not saying it will happen again but certainly noteworthy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is never gonna win by 6 if you think that you will be disappointed , Harris X is ushered by Mark Penn he is no D

[Pericles]

After the conventions, the type of race that we're dealing with will be obvious. The trends within the electorate should be decently clear too.

At the moment, we might have a Lean Trump race but this early is pretty mixed at being predictive-the famous example is how Dukakis was winning comfortably early in the campaign and then the race flipped as voters switched on.

The final margin can still change due to undecideds flipping and/or a polling error.

[Obama24]

Fwiw polling in May tends to be fairly accurate to the final results. Like in May 2020 Biden was in the 4-5 range which was very close to the 4.5 November margin. Hillary was slightly ahead of Trump and Obama was ahead a few points of Romney right now. Not saying it will happen again but certainly noteworthy.

How much was Hillary ahead in May 16?

[Obama24]

After the conventions, the type of race that we're dealing with will be obvious. The trends within the electorate should be decently clear too.

At the moment, we might have a Lean Trump race but this early is pretty mixed at being predictive-the famous example is how Dukakis was winning comfortably early in the campaign and then the race flipped as voters switched on.

The final margin can still change due to undecideds flipping and/or a polling error.

Up to what month in 1988 was Dukakis winning?

I would hope polling has grown a little more accurate since then...

[Tekken_Guy]

After the conventions, the type of race that we're dealing with will be obvious. The trends within the electorate should be decently clear too.

At the moment, we might have a Lean Trump race but this early is pretty mixed at being predictive-the famous example is how Dukakis was winning comfortably early in the campaign and then the race flipped as voters switched on.

The final margin can still change due to undecideds flipping and/or a polling error.

Since the three rust belt states are toss-ups, I have the race as a toss-up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After the conventions, the type of race that we're dealing with will be obvious. The trends within the electorate should be decently clear too.

At the moment, we might have a Lean Trump race but this early is pretty mixed at being predictive-the famous example is how Dukakis was winning comfortably early in the campaign and then the race flipped as voters switched on.

The final margin can still change due to undecideds flipping and/or a polling error.

Up to what month in 1988 was Dukakis winning?

I would hope polling has grown a little more accurate since then...

The polls been biased towards Trump since the primary and DeSantis made the mistake of not critiquing Trump and he lost

Even DeSantis said that that the polls have been biased towards Trump winning because the polls want to blame Biden for inflation

You know how refs and umpires cheat that's what the polls are doing cheating

[Obama24]

After the conventions, the type of race that we're dealing with will be obvious. The trends within the electorate should be decently clear too.

At the moment, we might have a Lean Trump race but this early is pretty mixed at being predictive-the famous example is how Dukakis was winning comfortably early in the campaign and then the race flipped as voters switched on.

The final margin can still change due to undecideds flipping and/or a polling error.

Up to what month in 1988 was Dukakis winning?

I would hope polling has grown a little more accurate since then...

The polls been biased towards Trump since the primary and DeSantis made the mistake of not critiquing Trump and he lost

Even DeSantis said that that the polls have been biased towards Trump winning because the polls want to blame Biden for inflation

You know how refs and umpires cheat that's what the polls are doing cheating

Here's a question I've seen few asking:

How much are the polls creating a negative feedback loop for Biden?

By which I mean, the polls say Biden is losing, so the perception then becomes "Biden is losing", which in turn demoralizes Democratic voters, takes undecided low info voters to Trump, and in the end depresses turnout?

[Pericles]

After the conventions, the type of race that we're dealing with will be obvious. The trends within the electorate should be decently clear too.

At the moment, we might have a Lean Trump race but this early is pretty mixed at being predictive-the famous example is how Dukakis was winning comfortably early in the campaign and then the race flipped as voters switched on.

The final margin can still change due to undecideds flipping and/or a polling error.

Up to what month in 1988 was Dukakis winning?

I would hope polling has grown a little more accurate since then...

It wasn't anything to do with the accuracy. Him being up by 17 points and not even coming close to winning has been memorable. This kind of effect has been seen in more modern elections to a lesser degree, McCain 2008 was similar but not as extreme.

[TodayJunior]

After both conventions

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dukakis was winning they had the Iran Contra thing going with Bush H but the fall of Communism in Russia made Reagan a hero and that's why Bush H

It has very little to do with polling error but Dukukis was beating Bush H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After the conventions, the type of race that we're dealing with will be obvious. The trends within the electorate should be decently clear too.

At the moment, we might have a Lean Trump race but this early is pretty mixed at being predictive-the famous example is how Dukakis was winning comfortably early in the campaign and then the race flipped as voters switched on.

The final margin can still change due to undecideds flipping and/or a polling error.

Up to what month in 1988 was Dukakis winning?

I would hope polling has grown a little more accurate since then...

The polls been biased towards Trump since the primary and DeSantis made the mistake of not critiquing Trump and he lost

Even DeSantis said that that the polls have been biased towards Trump winning because the polls want to blame Biden for inflation

You know how refs and umpires cheat that's what the polls are doing cheating

Here's a question I've seen few asking:

How much are the polls creating a negative feedback loop for Biden?

By which I mean, the polls say Biden is losing, so the perception then becomes "Biden is losing", which in turn demoralizes Democratic voters, takes undecided low info voters to Trump, and in the end depresses turnout?

They are trying to create a negative feeling because they won't poll MT, OH, WV S they keep polling TX and FL because they are part of the Prez race. The polls like I said want to blame the inflation on Biden that's why you have these ridiculous Trump leads like Trump +6 in Mark Penn Harris X, Marist already polled this race it was Biden +3

[Obama24]

After the conventions, the type of race that we're dealing with will be obvious. The trends within the electorate should be decently clear too.

At the moment, we might have a Lean Trump race but this early is pretty mixed at being predictive-the famous example is how Dukakis was winning comfortably early in the campaign and then the race flipped as voters switched on.

The final margin can still change due to undecideds flipping and/or a polling error.

Up to what month in 1988 was Dukakis winning?

I would hope polling has grown a little more accurate since then...

It wasn't anything to do with the accuracy. Him being up by 17 points and not even coming close to winning has been memorable. This kind of effect has been seen in more modern elections to a lesser degree, McCain 2008 was similar but not as extreme.

What I take from that poll is that the election was largely decided after the conventions.

I wonder what was going on in 1988 that would have such a relatively lame candidate as Dukakis doing so well in the polls?

He was a hardcore Massachusetts liberal in a time where liberal was almost practically a dirty word in politics. He was not DLC Democrat. He had no crossover appeal. Not particularly charismatic in my opinion.

The Reagan camp must've been doing something wrong or the Bush campaign must've been doing something wrong for such a dud of a candidate to be so up in the polls for half a year.

[cherry mandarin]

Since the three rust belt states are toss-ups, I have the race as a toss-up.

If you think Trump is favoured in the three Sun Belt battlegrounds, this doesn't really make sense as Biden must sweep all three states in the Midwest while Trump would only need to carry a single one.

For what it's worth, I still think NV, AZ, and GA are all toss-ups right now.

[Rubensim]

July or august I think since it a bit after the primaries and generally only about 3-4 months away from the election.

[cherry mandarin]

Perhaps by December everything will have become significantly clearer for all of us!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We just have to vote we gonna get a variation of Trump leads because polls want to match Biden bas Approvals with inflation, they are Trump bias

We already got polls that show Biden ahead Marist has Biden +3

It's only Mark Penn polls that show Trump up 6 and if you think Trump will win by 6 you will be disappointed

Bush W has been the only R to win the PVI by 2 not 6 Harris X is a joke polls as I keep telling Iceman this

[Progressive Pessimist]

Within the last two weeks of the election.

[dspNY]

This is actually a good question! Anytime between Labor Day and two weeks after Labor Day (so in mid-September). That’s when most people tune in

[Sir Mohamed]

Around Labor Day.

Generally feels like polling is extremely unreliable this cycle, and not just at the presidential level. If we're still seeing national and/or state polls that range from Biden +5 to Trump +5, a major gap between national and state polls or no candidate passing 44%, I'd be tempted just to ignore all the polls. We just have to wait for the election to happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trash the Mark Penn Harris X poll. The Rs never won a PVI +6. Obama won it by 6 in 2008

Mark Penn is founder of No Party Labels he wants Biden to be down 6

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Around Labor Day.

Generally feels like polling is extremely unreliable this cycle, and not just at the presidential level. If we're still seeing national and/or state polls that range from Biden +5 to Trump +5, a major gap between national and state polls or no candidate passing 44%, I'd be tempted just to ignore all the polls. We just have to wait for the election to happen.

This is where I’m at. I’ll personally be the judge of when I can start trusting polling

[SWE]

Polling as an industry died when Trump's FCC deregulated robocalls and everyone stopped answering their phones. Polling on November 4th won't be any more credible than flipping a coin. Only a miniscule fraction of the population is responding to polls and they're an especially weird group. It's worthless