Black Adults (YouGov/BVP): Biden +47 / +60

« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2024, 01:10:20 PM »

Nate Cohn would love this - if you focus only on 2020 voters, the results for 2024 look like this:

Biden 78%
Trump 11%
Not sure/wouldn't vote 11%

H2H w/o not sure/wouldn't vote
Biden 87%
Trump 13%

Biden has a very minor drop among 2020 voters. Basically where 90% of his shortcomings right now with black voters are among the 2020 non-voters.

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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2024, 01:11:11 PM »

The “would not vote” part isn’t quite a five alarm fire yet, but it’s definitely at three alarms and rising

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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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Quote from: dspNY on May 20, 2024, 01:11:11 PM

« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2024, 01:14:18 PM »

The “would not vote” part isn’t quite a five alarm fire yet, but it’s definitely at three alarms and rising

Given that this is a survey of -adults-, 11% of the sample saying they wouldn't vote actually seems quite low to me.

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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2024, 01:16:27 PM »

22% seems hard to believe tbh

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wbrocks67
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Quote from: MR DARK BRANDON on May 20, 2024, 01:16:27 PM

« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2024, 01:19:51 PM »

22% seems hard to believe tbh

It's also a small sample size obv (like n=150) so that could also play a role.

Bigger thing for me is the Biden sample is obv huge (like 1130) and there is little defection to Trump going on.

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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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Quote from: wbrocks67 on May 20, 2024, 01:19:51 PM

« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2024, 01:38:06 PM »

Quote from: MR DARK BRANDON on May 20, 2024, 01:16:27 PM

22% seems hard to believe tbh

It's also a small sample size obv (like n=150) so that could also play a role.

Bigger thing for me is the Biden sample is obv huge (like 1130) and there is little defection to Trump going on.

Fair but I still have my doubts that many voters flip

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GAinDC
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« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2024, 01:48:13 PM »

Black voters are very pragmatic. They're not about to roll out the red carpet for Trump just because prices are high.

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GAinDC
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2024, 01:49:49 PM »

what is the Republican Party's plan to turn out these people who didn't bother to vote in the highest turnout election since 1960?

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wbrocks67
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