Would Manchin have lost if he voted against Kavanaugh?

[President Johnson]

Joe Manchin just barely got reelected in 2018 against a flawed opponent and in a good environment and his vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh was extremely controversial. Now with some time having passed, is it fair to say that he would have lost otherwise? What if he voted against the nomination like all other Democrats?

[Fancyarcher]

Unquestionably. That vote saved his senate career for six more years. He only won by a plurality.

[wnwnwn]

It helped to cement his 'DINO moderate' image A LOT

[Roll Roons]

I wonder if it could have saved Donnelly. Heitkamp lost by too much and McCaskill was never going to vote against him because she's a resist lib at heart despite being from a red state.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wonder if it could have saved Donnelly. Heitkamp lost by too much and McCaskill was never going to vote against him because she's a resist lib at heart despite being from a red state.

Or, you know, because she thinks attempted rapists don’t belong on the Supreme Court.

[SnowLabrador]

I wonder if it could have saved Donnelly. Heitkamp lost by too much and McCaskill was never going to vote against him because she's a resist lib at heart despite being from a red state.

No. If anything he'd have lost by more than 6 points. Donnelly ran a horrible campaign by alienating his own base; that being said, I doubt there was any way he was winning anyway.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

No

[Mr. Smith]

Yes.

Him and Bill Nelson probably needed to vote for him, Nelson decided it was 50/50 and opted out, Manchin decided it was essential and did.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yes

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yes