What would be the first sign that Biden is going lose during election night coverage?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What's the sign that Trump gonna lose NC

[dspNY]

What's the sign that Trump gonna lose NC

Trump won’t lose North Carolina barring a collapse (say some kind of medical issue.

I’ll be putting half this board on mute at this rate

[Duke of York]

Michigan doesn't close until 8 PM, but I'd keep an eye on Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor). If Biden isn't over 70 here he's likely to lose the state (and thus the election). If there's going to be a massive movement of young college voters away from Biden due to Gaza, Washtenaw will be ground zero.

Not voting over that is truly stupid.

College protesters are willing to allow a wannabe dictator to win re-election for a country like 10,000 miles away. When Trump sends in the national guard to American cities and campuses (which he said he wants to do) I wonder who they'll blame.

My point exactly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What's the sign that Trump gonna lose NC

Trump won’t lose North Carolina barring a collapse (say some kind of medical issue.

I’ll be putting half this board on mute at this rate

Just because you say so doesn't mean it's true the NC Gov race is gonna be close and so will Prez race

[President Johnson]

What's the sign that Trump gonna lose NC

Your words in God's ear, king.

[Dan the Roman]

Way back in 2016, when all polling, prognostics by pundits and overall political climate point out to a Clinton blowout, I already knew she was in trouble early in the night when the margins in rural Kentucky and Indiana where lopsided for Trump. That was all confirned when Ohio was called before states in the west coast closed at 11PM EST and the margin was almost 10% when just the day before a columbus dispatch (gold standard for Ohio) showed a 1% Clinton edge.

This^ if the numbers in Indiana look closer to 2016 than 2020, while not definitive, that probably indicates bad news for Biden.

I mean this isn't talking about one county, or 1-2% but if Biden is consistently doing 3-4% worse across the board, and, say IN-01 is going R or is TCTC that is a good sign for Trump.

[cherry mandarin]

Trump winning Nevada or Arizona seems very unlikely to be a first sign, given how late those states close.

Even then, I'd be shocked if they were called by Wednesday morning (unless one candidate is running away with the election overall or massively overperforming in the Southwest region). I can't see either state being decided by a landslide, and they have abnormally high rates of ballots that only get reported in the days following the election.

If Trump win Michigan this could be a sign that Biden has lost horribly.

I could see MI voting to the right of states like NV, AZ, GA, even though that doesn't look likely today.

If New Jersey is not called right away at 8 PM we’ll know because that would show Biden isn’t getting the votes he needs in neighboring PA

They aren't all that similar demographically.

[wnwnwn]

NH still too close to call

[2016]

Exit polls showing that most Americans believe the economy is bad and getting worse.

You would be pretty ill advised just looking at Exit Polls. Exits were very bad for Trump in 2020 but as were were headed into the wee hours of the next morning we had a competitive Race on our hands.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a 303 map anyways and we are targeting TX and NC just because polls say that we are gonna lose doesn't mean so

[2016]

Sorry that I used the wrong Thread!

This Post should be put here.

Probably iceman and some other Florida Politicos know even better than me but I'd say if Biden loses Pinellas County, Florida by a wide margin than let's say Hillary Clinton in 2016 he is TOAST.

Pinellas County, Florida

Voted for the Presidential Winner in the last 40 years except for 2000 when Gore won it but lost the State & Presidency

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinellas_County,_Florida

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't care about FL it's gone but the sign that Rs are losing is Maricopa CTY RS HAVE LOST IN 18/20/22/, all eDays they lost, LIKE BIDEN CARES ABOUT FL NOW THAT HE IS 9% BEHIND.

Iceman believes in Harris X Mark Penn polls instead of Marist Biden +3 all the Biden and Trump leads have been posted here

[wbrocks67]

Way back in 2016, when all polling, prognostics by pundits and overall political climate point out to a Clinton blowout, I already knew she was in trouble early in the night when the margins in rural Kentucky and Indiana where lopsided for Trump. That was all confirned when Ohio was called before states in the west coast closed at 11PM EST and the margin was almost 10% when just the day before a columbus dispatch (gold standard for Ohio) showed a 1% Clinton edge.

This - I think there's actually a lot to gleam from KY/IN including rurals, suburbs, and minority turnout in cities (though KY and IN cities tend to report later) - i agree that this was also the turning point of 2016's election night. Things were already looking bad with KY/IN

[2016]

We don't care about FL it's gone but the sign that Rs are losing is Maricopa CTY RS HAVE LOST IN 18/20/22/, all eDays they lost, LIKE BIDEN CARES ABOUT FL NOW THAT HE IS 9% BEHIND.

Iceman believes in Harris X Mark Penn polls instead of Marist Biden +3 all the Biden and Trump leads have been posted here

You are a fool! Trump lost Maricopa County, AZ by 45,000+ Votes to Joe Biden in 2020, YET he only lost the State by only 10,000+ Votes because he improved his margins in heavily Republican Mohave, Yavapai & Yuma Counties compared to 2016.
Republicans won the E-Day Vote in 2018/2020/2022 in AZ.

Even if Biden wins Maricopa County he could still lose the State of Arizona.

[EliteLX]

If Virginia goes to the wire or takes a long time to be called.  That's how I knew the GOP was going to have a good night in 2014.

I'd argue Virginia is going to be a poor indicator; it is a politically unique state and is the ripe with Biden's strongest voter blocs. Mixed demographic suburbs and rust belt rural areas will tell all.

[kwabbit]

Way back in 2016, when all polling, prognostics by pundits and overall political climate point out to a Clinton blowout, I already knew she was in trouble early in the night when the margins in rural Kentucky and Indiana where lopsided for Trump. That was all confirned when Ohio was called before states in the west coast closed at 11PM EST and the margin was almost 10% when just the day before a columbus dispatch (gold standard for Ohio) showed a 1% Clinton edge.

This^ if the numbers in Indiana look closer to 2016 than 2020, while not definitive, that probably indicates bad news for Biden.

I mean this isn't talking about one county, or 1-2% but if Biden is consistently doing 3-4% worse across the board, and, say IN-01 is going R or is TCTC that is a good sign for Trump.

IN-01 is in Central Time so it won't be ahead of the other 7 pm states. Jefferson County, KY will be a great indicator. Average education rate, decent sized Black population. It has a modest secular Dem trend, so if it's stagnant then Biden has lost. If Biden gains 4 points of margin there, I would think that Biden has won.

Northern Kentucky will also be a good indicator because those counties are closer to average education rates. The Indy suburbs and Lexington are probably too educated to figure out what is going on. Hamilton County, IN might be the single likeliest county to swing to Biden, so even in a bad night for him he could even flip it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Way back in 2016, when all polling, prognostics by pundits and overall political climate point out to a Clinton blowout, I already knew she was in trouble early in the night when the margins in rural Kentucky and Indiana where lopsided for Trump. That was all confirned when Ohio was called before states in the west coast closed at 11PM EST and the margin was almost 10% when just the day before a columbus dispatch (gold standard for Ohio) showed a 1% Clinton edge.

This^ if the numbers in Indiana look closer to 2016 than 2020, while not definitive, that probably indicates bad news for Biden.

I mean this isn't talking about one county, or 1-2% but if Biden is consistently doing 3-4% worse across the board, and, say IN-01 is going R or is TCTC that is a good sign for Trump.

IN-01 is in Central Time so it won't be ahead of the other 7 pm states. Jefferson County, KY will be a great indicator. Average education rate, decent sized Black population. It has a modest secular Dem trend, so if it's stagnant then Biden has lost. If Biden gains 4 points of margin there, I would think that Biden has won.

Northern Kentucky will also be a good indicator because those counties are closer to average education rates. The Indy suburbs and Lexington are probably too educated to figure out what is going on. Hamilton County, IN might be the single likeliest county to swing to Biden, so even in a bad night for him he could even flip it.

If Biden flips Hamilton County, IN, I’d be very surprised if he lost.

[kwabbit]

Way back in 2016, when all polling, prognostics by pundits and overall political climate point out to a Clinton blowout, I already knew she was in trouble early in the night when the margins in rural Kentucky and Indiana where lopsided for Trump. That was all confirned when Ohio was called before states in the west coast closed at 11PM EST and the margin was almost 10% when just the day before a columbus dispatch (gold standard for Ohio) showed a 1% Clinton edge.

This^ if the numbers in Indiana look closer to 2016 than 2020, while not definitive, that probably indicates bad news for Biden.

I mean this isn't talking about one county, or 1-2% but if Biden is consistently doing 3-4% worse across the board, and, say IN-01 is going R or is TCTC that is a good sign for Trump.

IN-01 is in Central Time so it won't be ahead of the other 7 pm states. Jefferson County, KY will be a great indicator. Average education rate, decent sized Black population. It has a modest secular Dem trend, so if it's stagnant then Biden has lost. If Biden gains 4 points of margin there, I would think that Biden has won.

Northern Kentucky will also be a good indicator because those counties are closer to average education rates. The Indy suburbs and Lexington are probably too educated to figure out what is going on. Hamilton County, IN might be the single likeliest county to swing to Biden, so even in a bad night for him he could even flip it.

If Biden flips Hamilton County, IN, I’d be very surprised if he lost.

I would be as well, but Hamilton County swung 12.5 pts to the left in 2020 while WI swung 1.3 points and PA swung 1.7 points. It’s possible for Hamilton County to swing the final 7 pts to flip while Biden loses those two states. One would think if Hamilton swings 7 pts, Waukesha and Chester/Montgomery swing only a few points and Trump makes up ground elsewhere. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moderator note: I've cleaned up a bunch of posts in this thread.  Try to keep it civil, please, even with people you disagree with.  It's a long way until the election.

[iceman]

Sorry that I used the wrong Thread!

This Post should be put here.

Probably iceman and some other Florida Politicos know even better than me but I'd say if Biden loses Pinellas County, Florida by a wide margin than let's say Hillary Clinton in 2016 he is TOAST.

Pinellas County, Florida

Voted for the Presidential Winner in the last 40 years except for 2000 when Gore won it but lost the State & Presidency

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinellas_County,_Florida

county results in Florida would be a poor indicator for national trends as the general consensus here is that Florida will swing considerably rightward. Even in 2020, the results in Florida was misleading and everybody thought that Trump winning Florida that night was a pivotal moment and everybody was board on him going to win the election when the rest of the country trended in the opposite direction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is not Pred of how Eday is going, we aren't even contesting FL, when you are down 9% in FL try again

[pbrower2a]

A quick R call of Florida, Georgia, or North Carolina.

[cherry mandarin]

I'd say if Biden loses Pinellas County FL by a wider margin than, let's say, Hillary Clinton in 2016, he is TOAST.

I'm not sure any part of Florida makes for an especially great bellwether for the rest of the nation. Yes Pinellas is whiter, older, better-off, and better-educated than the rest of the state overall, but I nonetheless expect it to swing R substantially (just less than the rest of the state will). If Trump is having any trouble carrying Pinellas, I think he'll be in big trouble elsewhere.

A quick R call of Florida, Georgia, or North Carolina.

You don't think the Southeastern battlegrounds might trend rightward this year?