Considering his high approval ratings, why did Clinton fail to capture the popular vote in 1996?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2024, 07:00:07 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Discussion
  History (Moderator: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee)
  Considering his high approval ratings, why did Clinton fail to capture the popular vote in 1996?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Considering his high approval ratings, why did Clinton fail to capture the popular vote in 1996?  (Read 338 times)
Obama24
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 504
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 20, 2024, 01:43:17 AM »

I understand the fact that a good chunk of Americans were not enthusiastic about either choice in 1992, but by 1996, Clinton had a pretty solid record, there was no major scandal dogging his Presidency yet, the economy was robust, and his approval ratings were consistently high.

Why didn't he break 50% or above in the popular vote - was Perot solely to blame here?
Logged
TheElectoralBoobyPrize
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,537


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2024, 06:58:01 PM »

Considering Clinton was 49% even with Perot in the race, I would say yes Clinton definitely would have gotten to 50.1% with him out...probably even higher. In fact, I think Clinton's share of the two-party vote almost exactly matched his approval rating at the time (which was high, but not as high as it would be for most of his second term).

Logged
kyc0705
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,791


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2024, 10:19:22 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2024, 10:29:45 PM by kyc0705 »

Clinton underperformed the polls by several points. I would guess low turnout was also a major factor. There was never a point in the election when it seemed like he was in any danger of losing, and so he had a large base of support that was not all that motivated around the margins.
Logged
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,498


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2024, 02:50:20 AM »

Polls during the 1996 election cycle had Clinton above 50% during many stretches of time, but they ended up having a rather terrible cycle that year: the final NPV polling average as of Election Day, as calculated (retroactively) using 538’s polling model would have been D+12.8, which turned out to be 4.3 points above the actual NPV margin of D+8.5. Likewise, the final GCB polling average would have been D+5.4, which was 5.1 points above the actual House NPV of D+0.3 (and this House polling error probably turned what was expected to be a Democratic flip of the House into a Republican hold of that chamber).
Logged
vitoNova
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,266
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2024, 04:25:56 AM »

Because it was the decade of "S.F.W."

I actually never watched the movie.  I just know the white guy from Blade starred in it (another movie I never watched in its entirety, other than snippets on Canal+ and HBO)
Logged
wnwnwn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,000
Peru


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2024, 02:59:35 PM »

Low turnout and some alineate progressives.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,324


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2024, 06:23:41 PM »

Polls during the 1996 election cycle had Clinton above 50% during many stretches of time, but they ended up having a rather terrible cycle that year: the final NPV polling average as of Election Day, as calculated (retroactively) using 538’s polling model would have been D+12.8, which turned out to be 4.3 points above the actual NPV margin of D+8.5. Likewise, the final GCB polling average would have been D+5.4, which was 5.1 points above the actual House NPV of D+0.3 (and this House polling error probably turned what was expected to be a Democratic flip of the House into a Republican hold of that chamber).

Where can you find retroactive 538 polling data
Logged
Republican Party Stalwart
Stalwart_Grantist
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2024, 03:02:42 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2024, 03:06:15 PM by Republican Party Stalwart »

Others have basically already answered this, but:

1) alienated progressive/left/liberal-leaning voters

2) Perot and however many voted he may have taken away from Clinton (even if he took more votes away from Dole)

3) Low voter turnout because:
  • there was no bad economy to animate voters to go to the polls over.
  • Dole and his platform were not perceived by anyone to be any substantial threat to the then-good state of the economy.
  • Clinton and Dole's platforms (and arguably also Perot's platform even if to a lesser extent) were all essentially the same (or at least similar enough such that the sorts of people most inclined not to vote - including disaffected anti-establishmentarian types, low-info would-be voters, and poor/lumpenprole/under-15k a year/under-50k a year would-be voters - indeed did not do so).
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.021 seconds with 9 queries.