FL: CBS News / YouGov: Trump +13 (field), Stein @3%, Others @5% - Trump +9 (H2H)

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Florida President by CBS News / YouGov on 2024-05-16

Summary: D: 36%, R: 49%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[iceman]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits.

I’m not ready for double digits quite yet. As of RN I have it high single but it’s a state that’s gone for dems.

[Devils30]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

[iceman]

and it is also important to note that Florida is one state the polls tend to underestimate GOP support and overestimate DEMS. We all saw that in FL PRES 2020, FL Senate 2022 and FL Gov 2022. There’s no way to sugarcoat this polling for DEMS as the GOP registration advantage is almost 1 million now and it can only keep on growing until election day.

[iceman]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

[Devils30]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

[iceman]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

How do most people you know plan to vote?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is gone

[iceman]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

How do most people you know plan to vote?

I don’t usually ask people for their political preferences, I find that coming in too strong and meddlesome. But in general, on my observation, they absolutely hate both candidates and they would’ve preferred somebody else winning in their respective primaries. The hispanics I know though in my area doesn’t like Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect that FL/TX will be 9% to right of nation anyways

[TheTide]

I presume the networks would still take about a trillion years to call Florida if it votes for Trump by a double-digit margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I presume the networks would still take about a trillion years to call Florida if it votes for Trump by a double-digit margin.

These polls are inflated Trump is gonna win FL by 8%

[2016]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I'm with you on this. CBS has Trump leading among FL Hispanics Statewide 52-47. This is consistent with other FL Poll.
There seems to be a massive realignment among FL Hispanics and not just Cubans who traditionally vote Republican. Trump may even win Puerto Ricans, who traditionally backed D Pres Candidates over the last decade.
If Miami-Dade comes in like 2022 the State is going to get called at 8pm Poll Closing.

[2016]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

So Broward County bailed out Moskowitz in 2022 alone then?

Trump got 43 % I think in Palm Beach in 2020. I agree he won't win it but how much do you think he is going to get there? 45 %, 46%?

[iceman]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

So Broward County bailed out Moskowitz in 2022 alone then?

Trump got 43 % I think in Palm Beach in 2020. I agree he won't win it but how much do you think he is going to get there? 45 %, 46%?

probably 47% at most. Democrats still hold registration advantage in this county but it’s dwindling fast. To be honest I’m quite surprised DeSantis won here in 2022 and Rubio came close to winning it. But the overall climate for DEMS here in South Florida doesn’t bode well this November.

[2016]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

So Broward County bailed out Moskowitz in 2022 alone then?

Trump got 43 % I think in Palm Beach in 2020. I agree he won't win it but how much do you think he is going to get there? 45 %, 46%?

probably 47% at most. Democrats still hold registration advantage in this county but it’s dwindling fast. To be honest I’m quite surprised DeSantis won here in 2022 and Rubio came close to winning it. But the overall climate for DEMS here in South Florida doesn’t bode well this November.

Yeah. I made a Prediction in 2021 when Biden assumed Office that if he lurched to the left to please Sanders, AOC and these cohorts with Green New Deal and all these other far left Policies it would hurt him in South Florida. South Florida wasn't quite sure what they would get from Biden in 2020, now they know because he has a Record on that.

I don't like Trump but he's right: Pres Biden has proven himself to be a "Maduro & Castro Puppet".

[iceman]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

So Broward County bailed out Moskowitz in 2022 alone then?

Trump got 43 % I think in Palm Beach in 2020. I agree he won't win it but how much do you think he is going to get there? 45 %, 46%?

And for some reason Moskowitz only won the Broward county portion of FL-23 by 53%. Probably a much more republican electorate in 2022. But I’m guessing Trump’s actual performance here in Florida is much more closer or less to Rubio’s win rather than RDS’s in November.

[2016]

Can I ask you a Question @iceman,
How is the Immigration Issue playing down there in South Florida? We know that Bidens Controversial DHS Program dumped some 360,000 undocumented immigrants into Miami and another 100,000 or so elsewhere in FL without consulting the FL Govtm. and these folks running the inmate asylum over there. We know AG Moody & Governor DeSantis have gone to War with Biden over this trying to stop it.

Have they proven to be successful?

[iceman]

Can I ask you a Question @iceman,
How is the Immigration Issue playing down there in South Florida? We know that Bidens Controversial DHS Program dumped some 360,000 undocumented immigrants into Miami and another 100,000 or so elsewhere in FL without consulting the FL Govtm. and these folks running the inmate asylum over there. We know AG Moody & Governor DeSantis have gone to War with Biden over this trying to stop it.

Have they proven to be successful?

In my observation, it is not big of an issue at all here in Palm Beach county. I’m not sure about Miami-Dade. But there was a time when people are a bit wary of the crisis in Haiti and the possible influx of refugees in South Florida. Some Haitians I know are not keen with Illegal immigration as well but they are among the most Democratic subgroup of African-Americans and they turn out in the polls too. What makes this county probably become less blue in November are the hispanics (Cubans, Colombians, Puerto Ricans) plus the influx of Snowbirds who will most likely vote here in November, most snowbirds I know absolutely detest Biden and his policies.

[President Johnson]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits.

I’m not ready for double digits quite yet. As of RN I have it high single but it’s a state that’s gone for dems.

I think it will be close around double digits. So any margin between eight and twelve points.

Florida is deinitely gone. Biden still investing here may be more of an effort to force Trump playing defense. I just hope this won't be at the expense of North Carolina and Texas, which should be prime targets to expand the map.

[2016]

Just like @iceman said Voter Registrations in Palm Beach County are dwindling.

According to this Spreadsheet here

PB County

D - 323,921
R - 272,967

A little of 50,000 Advantage to the D's in a core D-Base County.

Miami-Dade

D - 512,623
R - 446,400

Around 66,000 Advantage to the D's here.

Meanwhile Statewide Republicans have increased their lead to nearly 916,000. When Harris visited the State on May 1st it was 903,000 or so.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vljDXB4r8YFNi6oWKdtEWkZ_lDEjM1BT/edit#gid=1850379568

At the outset I didn't believe Republicans could reach a 1M Registration lead by Nov 5. Now I do very much.

[Beet]

It seems CBS tried to make this poll realistic by explicitly polling the candidates who are currently on the ballot in these states. As a result, Stein is the most prominent third party candidate, and she is getting 3%, which is higher than other polls. I'd be interested to see this repeated when/if RFK Jr. gets on the ballot.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

How do most people you know plan to vote?

I don’t usually ask people for their political preferences, I find that coming in too strong and meddlesome. But in general, on my observation, they absolutely hate both candidates and they would’ve preferred somebody else winning in their respective primaries. The hispanics I know though in my area doesn’t like Biden.

It's hard to find ppl who unironically like Biden.

Except for on this forum.