AZ Sen - CBS News/Yougov - Gallego +13

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1792192157693915473?t=b_5N45_kgQXm7ROoZ1Z...

[2016]

Senator Rick Scott is cruising/sailing to Re-Election.

45 % though seems a little bit to low for my liking. If Trump is at 54 % in FL Scott is probably at 51 %. Scott isn't going to underperform Trump in FL by 9 Points.

[Old Man Willow]

Not surprised to see Lake is viewed as a joke even while Trump is winning comfortably. Absolute whack job.

[TheTide]

It's almost like the clock has been turned back at least 10-20 years with that level of ticket-splitting.

[wbrocks67]

Lake only at 73% with Republicans so she'll obviously shore up some of that support, but I assume there will still be a non-neglible amount of Rs who vote for Gallego.

There's not as much ticket splitting as the topline suggests. Biden and Gallego both get 89% of Ds, and both get 51% of Rs. Difference just is that Gallego does better with Hispanics (58% vs 49% for Biden) and Trump has consolidated more of the R base and more Indies

[2016]

It's almost like the clock has been turned back at least 10-20 years with that level of ticket-splitting.

What matters most though is if Voters Split Tickets in Montana & Ohio and I doubt that.

Arizona isn't even on the Republican Top Target List anymore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So Scott is only leading by 8 not 15

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So Scott is only leading by 8 not 15

[SnowLabrador]

This follows the trend of Biden being toxic and downballot Dems doing okay. Biden needs to drop out, then we’ll have a blue wave.

[2016]

This follows the trend of Biden being toxic and downballot Dems doing okay. Biden needs to drop out, then we’ll have a blue wave.

You are pretty lucky that Kari Lake is such a weak Candidate. Let's be serious here: Rep. Ruben Gallego is a totally, leftist, progressive radical, former Member of the Democratic Progressive House Caucus and if Republicans had fielded a decent Candidate like Kimberly Yee or Mark Brnovich Gallego would be toast. He is too the left of Senator Mark Kelly and given Arizonas Status as "Maverick State" where the share of the Independent Electorate has expotentially grown over the last Decade I thought he would be a bridge too far for the State. Only Lake makes this possible that he can win.

But I can tell you this: If he doesn't moderate his Positions when in the Senate next year he will have this Seat only for the "Rent of 6 years" and will be badly beaten in 2030.

[henster]

This follows the trend of Biden being toxic and downballot Dems doing okay. Biden needs to drop out, then we’ll have a blue wave.

You are pretty lucky that Kari Lake is such a weak Candidate. Let's be serious here: Rep. Ruben Gallego is a totally, leftist, progressive radical, former Member of the Democratic Progressive House Caucus and if Republicans had fielded a decent Candidate like Kimberly Yee or Mark Brnovich Gallego would be toast. He is too the left of Senator Mark Kelly and given Arizonas Status as "Maverick State" where the share of the Independent Electorate has expotentially grown over the last Decade I thought he would be a bridge too far for the State. Only Lake makes this possible that he can win.

But I can tell you this: If he doesn't moderate his Positions when in the Senate next year he will have this Seat only for the "Rent of 6 years" and will be badly beaten in 2030.

He is also a Latino veteran with a compelling background & a savvy politician. Look at Warnock, Tammy Baldwin, Sherrod Brown, & Jon Tester who you could perceive as hardcore leftist but still win because they are good politicians who can connect with people.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Definitely a Lean D race, at this point. Gallego probably won't win by that much, and he certainly isn't going to outperform Biden by 18 points, but it's been a pattern for quite a while now with Kari Lake badly underperforming Trump in these polls.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Definitely a Lean D race, at this point. Gallego probably won't win by that much, and he certainly isn't going to outperform Biden by 18 points, but it's been a pattern for quite a while now with Kari Lake badly underperforming Trump in these polls.

I could see something like Gallego +5, Trump +5 in the end.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Definitely a Lean D race, at this point. Gallego probably won't win by that much, and he certainly isn't going to outperform Biden by 18 points, but it's been a pattern for quite a while now with Kari Lake badly underperforming Trump in these polls.

I could see something like Gallego +5, Trump +5 in the end.

I can definitely see that happening, especially if polls are right and Trump's minority gains, specifically with hispanics, aren't trickling to down ballot Republicans.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

This follows the trend of Biden being toxic and downballot Dems doing okay. Biden needs to drop out, then we’ll have a blue wave.

You are pretty lucky that Kari Lake is such a weak Candidate. Let's be serious here: Rep. Ruben Gallego is a totally, leftist, progressive radical, former Member of the Democratic Progressive House Caucus and if Republicans had fielded a decent Candidate like Kimberly Yee or Mark Brnovich Gallego would be toast. He is too the left of Senator Mark Kelly and given Arizonas Status as "Maverick State" where the share of the Independent Electorate has expotentially grown over the last Decade I thought he would be a bridge too far for the State. Only Lake makes this possible that he can win.

But I can tell you this: If he doesn't moderate his Positions when in the Senate next year he will have this Seat only for the "Rent of 6 years" and will be badly beaten in 2030.

Bold of you to assume Republicans will nominate a sane candidate in 2030.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Biden is uniquely toxic to younger and working-class voters. These voters have no qualms with voting for younger, charismatic candidates like Gallego. Biden should drop out to save American democracy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's too late for Biden to drop out

[UncleSam]

Obviously this is very inflated and Gallego is only running two points ahead of Biden in this poll (Lake runs 16 points behind Trump lmao), but AZ probably won’t be won in a landslide. Even if Trump wins by 5-6 (which seems unlikely), Gallego should be competitive. And if Biden can bring things back to anywhere close to even, Gallego should win.

I do think that Lake will obviously surge as she consolidates the Trump base and begs him to come campaign with her. But I’d still put this at Lean D right now even though I’m close to ready to move AZ to Lean R for president.

[xavier110]

Weirdly enough, this is a great result for Biden and confirms the tilt D theory of mine. There is no universe where we have a Trump+5 Gallego+5 result here. Each Senate candidate will run extremely close with their presidential ticket. Like always.

[Progressive Pessimist]

These gaps between the Presidency and Senate are really absurd.

Senate Democrats are being overestimated, or Trump is. I know that there will be down-ballot Democrat-Trump voters, but this many?

[Yoda]

This follows the trend of Biden being toxic and downballot Dems doing okay. Biden needs to drop out, then we’ll have a blue wave.

You are pretty lucky that Kari Lake is such a weak Candidate. Let's be serious here: Rep. Ruben Gallego is a totally, leftist, progressive radical, former Member of the Democratic Progressive House Caucus and if Republicans had fielded a decent Candidate like Kimberly Yee or Mark Brnovich Gallego would be toast. He is too the left of Senator Mark Kelly and given Arizonas Status as "Maverick State" where the share of the Independent Electorate has expotentially grown over the last Decade I thought he would be a bridge too far for the State. Only Lake makes this possible that he can win.

But I can tell you this: If he doesn't moderate his Positions when in the Senate next year he will have this Seat only for the "Rent of 6 years" and will be badly beaten in 2030.

Bold of you to assume Republicans will nominate a sane candidate in 2030.

Some people really don't quite understand that one of the consequences of the Republican party fully embracing trumpism is that they will continue to nominate candidates like Kari Lake. The inmates have overtaken the asylum, and all of the cynical observers saying, "well, if the Republicans had nominated a good candidate in X state Democrats would be screwed!" really haven't come to grips with the fact that the base wants fire-breathing, far-right clowns who are unelectable outside of solid red states. Those candidates will continue to win GOP primaries though until the party dumps it's current trump/fascist values, which is not happening any time soon.

[DaleCooper]

This follows the trend of Biden being toxic and downballot Dems doing okay. Biden needs to drop out, then we’ll have a blue wave.

You are pretty lucky that Kari Lake is such a weak Candidate. Let's be serious here: Rep. Ruben Gallego is a totally, leftist, progressive radical, former Member of the Democratic Progressive House Caucus and if Republicans had fielded a decent Candidate like Kimberly Yee or Mark Brnovich Gallego would be toast. He is too the left of Senator Mark Kelly and given Arizonas Status as "Maverick State" where the share of the Independent Electorate has expotentially grown over the last Decade I thought he would be a bridge too far for the State. Only Lake makes this possible that he can win.

But I can tell you this: If he doesn't moderate his Positions when in the Senate next year he will have this Seat only for the "Rent of 6 years" and will be badly beaten in 2030.

He is also a Latino veteran with a compelling background & a savvy politician. Look at Warnock, Tammy Baldwin, Sherrod Brown, & Jon Tester who you could perceive as hardcore leftist but still win because they are good politicians who can connect with people.

Never-Trump people seem to consistently be the most out of touch when it comes to electoral politics.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Gallego isn't outrunning Biden by that margin. Reminds me of the Kelly +17 poll in the fall of 2020.