‘The house is on fire’: Democrats fear Biden is losing pivotal Georgia

[Woody]

https://www.ft.com/content/ab18441b-f302-41e6-b825-4b7ffc778f28

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need GA or NC all we need is NV and or AZ to clinch

[LAKISYLVANIA]

We don't need GA or NC all we need is NV and or AZ to clinch

which is why every red avatar is panicking when someone suggests to move GA into lean R or suggests that Biden cannot really win GA anymore.

Besides you don't look as great in AZ and esp. NV either.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://archive.md/G3gYK
Archived link to bypass paywall

[iceman]

https://www.ft.com/content/ab18441b-f302-41e6-b825-4b7ffc778f28

not a free article

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need GA or NC all we need is NV and or AZ to clinch

which is why every red avatar is panicking when someone suggests to move GA into lean R or suggests that Biden cannot really win GA anymore.

Besides you don't look as great in AZ and esp. NV either.

Lol Biden can win GA these are polls not votes

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Dude, it's a 303 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laki thinks his R nut maps is gonna come true lol Rs haven't won since 2016

[MR DARK BRANDON]

GA I think will be the easiest swing state for Trump to siphon.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's kind of interesting how fast Georgia went from the swing state Democrats felt most optimistic about to arguably the state they're most pessimistic about.

After 2020 and 2021, Democrats sort of had a honeymoon phase in Georgia where it was assumed Atlanta's growth and increasing black population would pull the state left for the long run. Then in 2022 Democrats had a pretty underwhelming midterm in GA outside the Senate race failing to come close at the state level. Now in 2024, polling and pundits both suggests Trump winning Georgia with relative ease.

Regardless of if Trump ends up winning GA or not, this shows how fast a narrative about a state can turn around.

[DrScholl]

Yawn. Anonymous Democrats panicking is the most tired sort of article there is.

[iceman]

It's kind of interesting how fast Georgia went from the swing state Democrats felt most optimistic about to arguably the state they're most pessimistic about.

After 2020 and 2021, Democrats sort of had a honeymoon phase in Georgia where it was assumed Atlanta's growth and increasing black population would pull the state left for the long run. Then in 2022 Democrats had a pretty underwhelming midterm in GA outside the Senate race failing to come close at the state level. Now in 2024, polling and pundits both suggests Trump winning Georgia with relative ease.

Regardless of if Trump ends up winning GA or not, this shows how fast a narrative about a state can turn around.

Georgia could possibly follow the direction of North Carolina where it lent it’s electoral votes to democrats in 2008 then stubbornly vote GOP cycles after albeit by small margins.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's kind of interesting how fast Georgia went from the swing state Democrats felt most optimistic about to arguably the state they're most pessimistic about.

After 2020 and 2021, Democrats sort of had a honeymoon phase in Georgia where it was assumed Atlanta's growth and increasing black population would pull the state left for the long run. Then in 2022 Democrats had a pretty underwhelming midterm in GA outside the Senate race failing to come close at the state level. Now in 2024, polling and pundits both suggests Trump winning Georgia with relative ease.

Regardless of if Trump ends up winning GA or not, this shows how fast a narrative about a state can turn around.

Georgia could possibly follow the direction of North Carolina where it lent it’s electoral votes to democrats in 2008 then stubbornly vote GOP cycles after albeit by small margins.

I personally have my doubts but we shall see. NC always seemed to have a lot more places where Democrats could collapse further than Georgia. When Obama won NC in 2008 he was winning or at least coming close in many rural white Appalachian precincts - in Georgia however rural whites are already pretty close to as red as they can get. I think the main thing that could change my view is if we actually see black voters shift right in large magnitudes for cycle after cycle.

Also Georgia growth is just far more lopsided in Dems favor than NC. In GA most fo the growth is coming out of metro Atlanta and making it bluer, whereas in NC you had some counteracting growth in certain exurban areas and along the NC coast.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's kind of interesting how fast Georgia went from the swing state Democrats felt most optimistic about to arguably the state they're most pessimistic about.

After 2020 and 2021, Democrats sort of had a honeymoon phase in Georgia where it was assumed Atlanta's growth and increasing black population would pull the state left for the long run. Then in 2022 Democrats had a pretty underwhelming midterm in GA outside the Senate race failing to come close at the state level. Now in 2024, polling and pundits both suggests Trump winning Georgia with relative ease.

Regardless of if Trump ends up winning GA or not, this shows how fast a narrative about a state can turn around.

Georgia could possibly follow the direction of North Carolina where it lent it’s electoral votes to democrats in 2008 then stubbornly vote GOP cycles after albeit by small margins.

I personally have my doubts but we shall see. NC always seemed to have a lot more places where Democrats could collapse further than Georgia. When Obama won NC in 2008 he was winning or at least coming close in many rural white Appalachian precincts - in Georgia however rural whites are already pretty close to as red as they can get. I think the main thing that could change my view is if we actually see black voters shift right in large magnitudes for cycle after cycle.

The fact that Democrats succeeded at winning and holding both Senate seats, while North Carolina hasn't since Hagan, suggests to me that Georgia is becoming Virginiaized. But it's still at the point where it's still Republican at the state level, while competitive at the federal.

Trump may win it; it may swing back to him, but it still has more promise for Democrats than North Carolina for now.

[Sbane]

Georgia is the one swing state I am truly concerned will vote for Trump. Arizona and Nevada are highly urban states with abortion on the ballot. The midwestern swing states have large college educated white populations and a small non-urban non-white vote. Georgia has Atlanta, of course, but a large chunk of the population lives in exurban or small city/town/rural areas. And a large chunk of that population is non-white. This is the sort of place you would think is ground zero for backlash against Biden. Think about what happened in the RGV in Texas but this time happening in the black belt.

[iceman]

It's kind of interesting how fast Georgia went from the swing state Democrats felt most optimistic about to arguably the state they're most pessimistic about.

After 2020 and 2021, Democrats sort of had a honeymoon phase in Georgia where it was assumed Atlanta's growth and increasing black population would pull the state left for the long run. Then in 2022 Democrats had a pretty underwhelming midterm in GA outside the Senate race failing to come close at the state level. Now in 2024, polling and pundits both suggests Trump winning Georgia with relative ease.

Regardless of if Trump ends up winning GA or not, this shows how fast a narrative about a state can turn around.

Georgia could possibly follow the direction of North Carolina where it lent it’s electoral votes to democrats in 2008 then stubbornly vote GOP cycles after albeit by small margins.

I personally have my doubts but we shall see. NC always seemed to have a lot more places where Democrats could collapse further than Georgia. When Obama won NC in 2008 he was winning or at least coming close in many rural white Appalachian precincts - in Georgia however rural whites are already pretty close to as red as they can get. I think the main thing that could change my view is if we actually see black voters shift right in large magnitudes for cycle after cycle.

Also Georgia growth is just far more lopsided in Dems favor than NC. In GA most fo the growth is coming out of metro Atlanta and making it bluer, whereas in NC you had some counteracting growth in certain exurban areas and along the NC coast.

Yes, we it can’t be denied that the trends in Atlanta area is expediting the supposed leftward trend of Georgia, we shall see in November if the black vote is really trending right which counterbalances the suburban/urban shifts in Atlanta metro.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are you so worried I am an Eday clerk it's polls not votes

Trump has to worry about TX it can surprise everyone where my cuz live on Eday with Cruz losing

[It’s so Joever]

It will all depend on whether blexit is real or not.

[Mr. Smith]

If he is, it's probably a dead count bounce against him before 2026 Burns Trump with a vengeance.  Sorta like how Virginia was won by Bob McDonnell in 2009, only for George Allen to fail in the shadow of Obama miserably...but then Gillespie almost won.

I expect a similar sort of teeter-totter before finally settling for Dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are always surprise states in every Eday WI S Johnson won was a surprise in 22 FL DeSantis won by 20 was a surprise, I feel TX where my cuz lives is gonna be the surprise with NC, Biden can win by more than 1 pt. If we win by 5 we can win TX, dont forget GA and AZ were supposed to be R 20. My cuz said he is gonna ensure Allred wins


I have been back and forth with TX with ALLRED because he is mixed but TX is strongly pro gun, Ds are targeting MD, MT, TX, AZ, OH we don't know about WV it's Lean R but not one poll

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Re: Sbane and Forumlurker161- it's plausible for Blexit2024 to happen without causing both GA and the Rust Belt trio to flip to Trump.

I interpreted EJ24's Super Tuesday hypothetical as a "Biden Sunbelt victory but Blexit screws with the Rust Belt firewall" scenario, although the reverse seems more likely given GE polling since then.

1. Biden improved in Miami-Dade County +7% from 2020.

2. Trump improved with black voters by 5% from 2020 nationwide.

3. Georgia was called much earlier than expected on election night.

4. Texas was too close to call with 92% of the vote reporting.

Discuss with maps.

Trump is leading in WI and MI, Biden is leading in NV and AZ. Biden narrowly wins reelection despite big swings against him (raw margin wise) in Metro NYC, Los Angeles County, Chicagoland, and the Bay Area.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Biden is failing to give younger, nonwhite, and working class voters any reason to vote for him

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is failing to give younger, nonwhite, and working class voters any reason to vote for him

He has steadily improved in the polls since the SOTU, yeah the state by state polls Lean Trump but the NPVI is Leaning Biden Marist had it Biden +3 do you know what a Biden +5 victory can be 360 EC votes with TX

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Biden is failing to give younger, nonwhite, and working class voters any reason to vote for him

He has steadily improved in the polls since the SOTU, yeah the state by state polls Lean Trump but the NPVI is Leaning Biden Marist had it Biden +3 do you know what a Biden +5 victory can be 360 EC votes with TX

Biden has good instincts and know he needs to focus on kitchen table issues, which is the same playbook Obama and Clinton used effectively. Sadly his staffers insist he focuses on culture war issues and divisive pandering, which is why democrats have slid big time with working class voters over the last 30 years.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

It's kind of interesting how fast Georgia went from the swing state Democrats felt most optimistic about to arguably the state they're most pessimistic about.

After 2020 and 2021, Democrats sort of had a honeymoon phase in Georgia where it was assumed Atlanta's growth and increasing black population would pull the state left for the long run. Then in 2022 Democrats had a pretty underwhelming midterm in GA outside the Senate race failing to come close at the state level. Now in 2024, polling and pundits both suggests Trump winning Georgia with relative ease.

Regardless of if Trump ends up winning GA or not, this shows how fast a narrative about a state can turn around.

Georgia could possibly follow the direction of North Carolina where it lent it’s electoral votes to democrats in 2008 then stubbornly vote GOP cycles after albeit by small margins.

NC has always voted 6-7% to the right of the nation since 2008. GA went from voting 13% to the right to only 4%. Imo it is more of a Virginia or Colorado than a NC, even if Trump gets a dead cat bounce there.