If Trump is really making inroads with African-Americans, which state would it be more evident?

[iceman]

We all are hearing from the MSM that Trump is apparently making inroads (?) with people of color especially African Americans. If this holds true, which state would it be clearly exhibitied?

The state in my opinion would be Georgia, that would probably explain why Trump has been leading in the polls there even though conventional wisdom dictates that the Atlanta trends would’ve moved the state further left. It is probably offset by the AA votes Trump is getting in the rural areas?

[Frodo]

North Carolina and Virginia would also be heavily affected.  Trump could potentially be the first Republican since George W. Bush to win all of the former Confederacy, and nearly all of the slave states in existence in 1860 -if this was real.

Which makes me think about Mississippi as well, not because it is competitive at the national level, but because the racial polarization in the state is pretty much the only reason Democrats remain remotely competitive at the state level, while it presents a hard ceiling for the Mississippi Democratic Party-and a hard floor for Democratic presidential candidates.  

[Rubensim]

As frodo said if this is true this would effect Virgina and North Carolina to the donald greatly
And this would probably seal Michigan and Pennsylvania to Trump and would cause many blue states to grey a bit, basically Biden probably praying to God that trump isn't making inroad with Minorities and especially African-Americans because if he is than this would certainly mean trump will win 2024 or make the election very very close.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Georgia and North Carolina.

Maybe Michigan and Pennsylvania to some degree.

Virginia is safe D.

[Frodo]

Georgia and North Carolina.

Maybe Michigan and Pennsylvania to some degree.

Virginia is safe D.

Most blacks live in Southside or in the Norfolk/Virginia Beach area, and comprise about a fifth of the state's total population -and much more than that within the Virginia Democratic Party itself.  If we start losing them, we're in trouble.  Fortunately, the claim about Trump making inroads with African Americans is nothing more than a chimera, and with the GOP in the grip of white nationalists, I am not going to worry too much. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like New York, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Georgia would be the best states to look at for if this is true. All these states have substantial pockets of >95% black precincts.

While yes, Virginia and North Carolina have decent black populations, both are more scattered and so you don't have that many >95% black precincts or >505 black counties in either. In 2022 for instance, the topline results in those states may have made you think black voters swung right, but looking under the surface it seems like lower black turnout contributed to the rightwards swing of the blackbelt more than black voters actually shifting right.

[Sbane]

I absolutely agree it would be in rural areas where the black vote would swing the most. North Carolina is pretty much a Trump state at this point.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

North Carolina and Virginia would also be heavily affected.  Trump could potentially be the first Republican since George W. Bush to win all of the former Confederacy, and nearly all of the slave states in existence in 1860 -if this was real.

Which makes me think about Mississippi as well, not because it is competitive at the national level, but because the racial polarization in the state is pretty much the only reason Democrats remain remotely competitive at the state level, while it presents a hard ceiling for the Mississippi Democratic Party-and a hard floor for Democratic presidential candidates.  

Even if Trump makes massive gains with Black voters, he will still lose VA. White voters in suburbs are entrenched Democrats atp.

[Frodo]

North Carolina and Virginia would also be heavily affected.  Trump could potentially be the first Republican since George W. Bush to win all of the former Confederacy, and nearly all of the slave states in existence in 1860 -if this was real.

Which makes me think about Mississippi as well, not because it is competitive at the national level, but because the racial polarization in the state is pretty much the only reason Democrats remain remotely competitive at the state level, while it presents a hard ceiling for the Mississippi Democratic Party-and a hard floor for Democratic presidential candidates.  

Even if Trump makes massive gains with Black voters, he will still lose VA. White voters in suburbs are entrenched Democrats atp.

I said Virginia would be heavily affected, not that he would win it.  Though if he made the gains with black voters that all the hype is suggesting, he could make Virginia a swing state again, for a time.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not be ause winning GA and NC doesn't crack the blue wall he has to win NV and AZ and those states have voted D almost always. Kemp won in 22 and Warnock won that didn't crack the blk support in a state like GA until we see it again in 24

He has to win PA in order for him to crack the blk base because Philly and Pittsburgh have tons of blks in them and Trump isn't winning PA with Bob Casey Jr

That's where Bill Cosby lives and he had multiple support from blks in Philly and Pittsburgh

[Pericles]

He might get bigger swings with some states' blacks than others. The thing to look for is where the AAs in a state are more non-college and low income, I'm not sure yet if there's an urban/rural difference. The Democratic vote is so high with them everywhere but perhaps in some states there is more vote to lose than in others.

[wnwnwn]

GA?

[Rubensim]

GA?

Trump doing really well in Georgia which is GA, might be the reddest swing state.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Georgia is the only state that was remotely close in 2020 where blacks make up a clear majority of Democratic voters. So it would take only a small change in the black vote to flip the state all else being equal. I would look for it most in somewhat integrated areas with a lot of young people.

[iceman]

Georgia is the only state that was remotely close in 2020 where blacks make up a clear majority of Democratic voters. So it would take only a small change in the black vote to flip the state all else being equal. I would look for it most in somewhat integrated areas with a lot of young people.

Could this also make GA-02 in play?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Honestly almost every state east of the Mississippi + Texas, with the exception of New England and Iowa.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Louisiana, Mississippi, Maryland and Georgia.

Out of swing states:
1. Georgia
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Florida
5. Michigan
Texas/Pennsylvania/Nevada

[LAKISYLVANIA]

He might get bigger swings with some states' blacks than others. The thing to look for is where the AAs in a state are more non-college and low income, I'm not sure yet if there's an urban/rural difference. The Democratic vote is so high with them everywhere but perhaps in some states there is more vote to lose than in others.

I suspect this would be states with larger proportions of rural Afro-Americans and states with a worse educational system than others and institutional racism in its history, which would typically be the south.

Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, maybe Virginia (?)