NM has a sizable native Americans population who voted like Blacks. Nuevomexicanos vote like Jewish. I think VA flips before NM.
I think the opposite.
New Mexico is probably going to end up the 2024 Republicans’s No. 35 best state. For Virginia, their No. 36.
Probable order (after No. 31)—whether or not flipped/carried—for the 2024 Republicans:
32. Minnesota
33. New Hampshire
34. Maine (state)
35. New Mexico
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Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District36. Virginia
37. Colorado
38–40. [Alphabetical order] Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon