Trump to hold rally in the South Bronx

[The Mikado]

As someone who has been to Crotona Park many times, a crowd of a couple thousand is nothing. More people than that pass through that park daily. In May and June you could see more people than that (mostly kids and their teachers) from school outings on a given day (at the end of the school year)

Are we going with "a couple thousand?" That's...pretty underwhelming given everything.

I know they've revised his Wildwood NJ rally down from "80-100k" to "30-40k" but 40k is nothing to sneeze at and if he had that in New York City it'd be pretty impressive.

[dspNY]

There's also this idea from people who haven't been in places like the Bronx, parts of Brooklyn, Harlem, Washington Heights, etc. that the people there love gangbangers like the rappers who appeared with Trump onstage at that rally. The vast majority of New Yorkers, especially in the Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, hate those types with the fire of a thousand suns. They are the cause of crime in the city. For every teenager and young adult who wants to be a gangbanger, there are at least 10-15 people who want to see them get theirs.

Disclosure: I've worked in those neighborhoods pretty much my adult life. Virtually every parent of children I've worked with in NYC schools fears the possibility and dreads the thought of their child turning out the way those rappers at the Trump rally turned out

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

There's also this idea from people who haven't been in places like the Bronx, parts of Brooklyn, Harlem, Washington Heights, etc. that the people there love gangbangers like the rappers who appeared with Trump onstage at that rally. The vast majority of New Yorkers, especially in the Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, hate those types with the fire of a thousand suns. They are the cause of crime in the city. For every teenager and young adult who wants to be a gangbanger, there are at least 10-15 people who want to see them get theirs.

Disclosure: I've worked in those neighborhoods pretty much my adult life. Virtually every parent of children I've worked with in NYC schools fears the possibility and dreads the thought of their child turning out the way those rappers at the Trump rally turned out

You're 100% correct.

Rappers like Sheff G & Sleepy Hallow are clowns (and literal criminals). They're also the type of gangbangers that conservatives rail against all of the time in "leftist hellhole cities".

But I guess that supporting the orange buffoon makes everything OK? LOL.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1793798340607402241

Literally who?

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's also this idea from people who haven't been in places like the Bronx, parts of Brooklyn, Harlem, Washington Heights, etc. that the people there love gangbangers like the rappers who appeared with Trump onstage at that rally. The vast majority of New Yorkers, especially in the Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, hate those types with the fire of a thousand suns. They are the cause of crime in the city. For every teenager and young adult who wants to be a gangbanger, there are at least 10-15 people who want to see them get theirs.

Disclosure: I've worked in those neighborhoods pretty much my adult life. Virtually every parent of children I've worked with in NYC schools fears the possibility and dreads the thought of their child turning out the way those rappers at the Trump rally turned out

Whenever there’s a prominent black Trump supporter, they frequently seem to fall into one of the two following camps:

1. Black people who are disconnected from the “mainstream” black community and have social groups that are mostly white. Quite a few current black Republican politicians seem to fall into this category.

2. Black people who are part of the more toxic elements of hip-hop and gang culture. There have been quite a few rappers who fall into this category who have endorsed Trump but all of them seem to have some pretty significantly personal issues.

Both of these groups are pretty disconnected and often despised by the “mainstream” black community.

My theory for 2024 is that the “black community” doesn’t really budge, but the “black community”’s dominance on influencing black voters is increasingly waning as many find primary homes in other communities, especially with the rise of social media and greater upward mobility for some blacks. As these black voters become more disconnected from the black community, they behave politically more like the new communities that are more dominant in their lives.

[Obama24]

The Bronx would also be a pretty large city in its own right were it not a borough of NYC. Almost 1.5 million people live there. There are only 6 cities in the US other than NYC that have a greater population than the Bronx. Trump gets larger crowds in suburbs with a fraction of the population the Bronx has. He got a crowd 5-6 times this size at Wildwood which is a fraction of the size of the Bronx (and I'll tip my hat to that, that actually was impressive).

The Bronx actually has more people living in it than San Diego or Dallas. If Trump got a crowd of a couple thousand in Dallas we'd be laughing at him

Additionally NYC is very dense so just because he's holding a rally in the Bronx doesn't mean there won't be a significant number of people from the other NYC boroughs, Westchester County, or North Jersey

I'd wager at least 2/3 of the crowd was white--most of them were not from the Bronx. Maybe Throggs Neck, which is in the Bronx, but most probably from the suburbs or Staten Island.

Let's put it this way; if he could have filled Madison Square Garden he would have asked for a rally there with his buddy James Dolan instead of a crowd 1/10 the size in the Bronx

I doubt people from SI were traveling to the Bronx for Trump. Maybe from Manhattan getting to the Bronx is no issue, but it's a pain in the a** from elsewhere. No one goes to the Bronx unless they work there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's entirely possible that most of the crowd was from the Bronx.  Trump got 67K votes there in 2020.  That was only 16% of the vote, but even a small percentage of a large number is a large number.

[Umengus]

Trump is not here to win the Bronx, he is here to show that he cares about black people, unlike Biden. Blacks who could be decisive in Virignie and especially in PA. The suburbs also like a candidate who speaks to all of America. Therefore, Biden is expected to hold a rally in a rural county.

Media coverage was good, mission accomplished

[DrScholl]

Trump is not here to win the Bronx, he is here to show that he cares about black people, unlike Biden. Blacks who could be decisive in Virignie and especially in PA. The suburbs also like a candidate who speaks to all of America. Therefore, Biden is expected to hold a rally in a rural county.

Media coverage was good, mission accomplished

WTF is "Virignie"? Trump doesn't about Black people. I don't have to get into history again but he is the mostly openly anti-Black President since Wilson

[Duke of York]

Since Trump did this. Biden should counter by having a rally in say West Virginia or North Dakota.

[iceman]

Since Trump did this. Biden should counter by having a rally in say West Virginia or North Dakota.

Trump going to south Bronx is him riding on the narrative that he is making inroads with AAs and Hispanics as what polling and the MSM media suggests. Biden going to West Virginia would be nonsensical as there are no talks about him making inroads with rural whites nor the polls are showing so, no evidence to suggest that currently.

[DrScholl]

Since Trump did this. Biden should counter by having a rally in say West Virginia or North Dakota.

Trump going to south Bronx is him riding on the narrative that he is making inroads with AAs and Hispanics as what polling and the MSM media suggests. Biden going to West Virginia would be nonsensical as there are no talks about him making inroads with rural whites nor the polls are showing so, no evidence to suggest that currently.

It still makes no sense to go to an area you aren't going to win in a state you aren't going to win. Trump lost the Black vote in his own primary to Haley if precinct analysis is accurate so polling is not to believed.

[dspNY]

Local ABC News reported about a thousand rally goers, mostly with out of state license plates, and about a hundred counterprotesters, virtually all from NYC. The rally was astroturfed, as I suspected

[DrScholl]

Local ABC News reported about a thousand rally goers, mostly with out of state license plates, and about a hundred counterprotesters, virtually all from NYC. The rally was astroturfed, as I suspected

1000 attendees seems pretty horrible and as suspected they weren't local.

[wnwnwn]

People it´s 2024. Look at DRA. South Bronx is mostly latino nowadays, altorught there is still a good share of non latino blacks living there and also afro-latinos (like Torres).
Maybe Trump could use the situation to release a #AfroaltinosXTrump shirt or something like that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

People it´s 2024. Look at DRA. South Bronx is mostly latino nowadays, altorught there is still a good share of non latino blacks living there and also afro-latinos (like Torres).
Maybe Trump could use the situation to release a #AfroaltinosXTrump shirt or something like that.

I'm sure this was unintentional, but it would be very on-brand for them to release a shirt with a misspelling on it.  Related:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1791910113021747257

Look at the smaller print carefully.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

In 1980, Reagan held a campaign event in the South Bronx to try and gain Black and Latino support, just a couple blocks from the park where Trump was giving his speech yesterday:



It didn't work at all for Reagan, and this Trump stunt won't either.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In 1980, Reagan held a campaign event in the South Bronx to try and gain Black and Latino support, just a couple blocks from the park where Trump was giving his speech yesterday:



It didn't work at all for Reagan, and this Trump stunt won't either.

Reagan won NY so thats not a good analogy and also if you go by exits he had the best ever performance for a GOPer among Hispanic voters.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220920003705/https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-nov-04-na-latinos4-story.html

Bush’s share of the Latino vote represents the best performance by a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, since President Reagan won the support of 46% of Latinos in his 1984 reelection campaign. At that time, the pool of Latino voters was much smaller.

[Obama24]

A person I know who lives in the Bronx went. She is age 26, and a working class white worker (city worker), Bronx native. Hasn't voted much before. She described it is "It was good. Crowded but good." She also isn't someone who is particularly dishonest with me. She isn't sure whether or not she is voting at all, or for Trump yet, but is unhappy with the economy.

[President Johnson]

It's entirely possible that most of the crowd was from the Bronx.  Trump got 67K votes there in 2020.  That was only 16% of the vote, but even a small percentage of a large number is a large number.

If crowd sizes actually mattered, Bernie would have won the nomination in 2020 in a cakewalk.

[Duke of York]

Since Trump did this. Biden should counter by having a rally in say West Virginia or North Dakota.

Trump going to south Bronx is him riding on the narrative that he is making inroads with AAs and Hispanics as what polling and the MSM media suggests. Biden going to West Virginia would be nonsensical as there are no talks about him making inroads with rural whites nor the polls are showing so, no evidence to suggest that currently.

It still makes no sense to go to an area you aren't going to win in a state you aren't going to win. Trump lost the Black vote in his own primary to Haley if precinct analysis is accurate so polling is not to believed.

This kind of thinking is why Democrats don’t do well in rural areas or some states. Many Democratic candidates for statewide office in 2022 went to rural areas and it helped with margins and possibly downballot too. I’m not saying ignore swing states just do a visit. Show people you care about them.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Reagan won NY so thats not a good analogy and also if you go by exits he had the best ever performance for a GOPer among Hispanic voters.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220920003705/https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-nov-04-na-latinos4-story.html

Bush’s share of the Latino vote represents the best performance by a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, since President Reagan won the support of 46% of Latinos in his 1984 reelection campaign. At that time, the pool of Latino voters was much smaller.

OK, so multiple things:

1. In 1980, Reagan won New York State overall (barely) but NOT New York City (and he lost handily in the Bronx).

2. That exit poll you posted was for 1984 NOT 1980.

3. He was not only trying to appeal to Latino voters but Black voters as well. Reagan did dreadful with Black voters in both of his elections.

[President Johnson]

Reagan won NY so thats not a good analogy and also if you go by exits he had the best ever performance for a GOPer among Hispanic voters.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220920003705/https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-nov-04-na-latinos4-story.html

Bush’s share of the Latino vote represents the best performance by a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, since President Reagan won the support of 46% of Latinos in his 1984 reelection campaign. At that time, the pool of Latino voters was much smaller.

OK, so multiple things:

1. In 1980, Reagan won New York State overall (barely) but NOT New York City (and he lost handily in the Bronx).

2. That exit poll you posted was for 1984 NOT 1980.

3. He was not only trying to appeal to Latino voters but Black voters as well. Reagan did dreadful with Black voters in both of his elections.

Didn't Reagan win New York in 1980 mainly due to John Anderson? I think Carter would have kept the state in a one-on-one race, like others in the region (especially Massachusetts). However, the 1980s were a different time and it's de facto impossible to win 40+ states for either side.

[DrScholl]

The crowd size was about as big as what a free concert for a cover band would get
https://twitter.com/FPWellman/status/1794001941569089868

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Didn't Reagan win New York in 1980 mainly due to John Anderson? I think Carter would have kept the state in a one-on-one race, like others in the region (especially Massachusetts). However, the 1980s were a different time and it's de facto impossible to win 40+ states for either side.

Yes, John B. Anderson did siphon away some voters from Carter, and that also contributed to Reagan's narrow plurality win in the state.