Could Nevada vote to the right of Texas?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The gap between these states was only 8 points in 2020, down from a 23 point gap in 2012.

Texas is a state with a lot of favorable migration for Democrats and still tons of college educated suburban voters to potentially peel off. It’s also a state with low turnout where Dems seem to have more overall potential with non-voters.

Nevada is a state with low college attainment, migration that seems to be helping Republicans, and so on.

However they do have some similarities that make large divergences in their swings seem less probable for 2024 - both states are supermajority non-white, most notable large Hispanic populations. Additionally, both states are quite urban/suburban in nature with most of the population being contained to major metro areas.

I personally don’t think this happens but I think it’s more possible than most assume - I could see the gap between them being pretty small.

What do yall think?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the gap probably narrows again. It's unlikely to fully close.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Emerson has Biden within 2 points

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

However they do have some similarities that make large divergences in their swings seem less probable for 2024 - both states are supermajority non-white, most notable large Hispanic populations. Additionally, both states are quite urban/suburban in nature with most of the population being contained to major metro areas.

The largest racial group in Nevada is still Non-Hispanic White, and not by a particularly close margin. Anyways I don’t think this happens unless Texas is within 3 points or somehow flips to Biden.

[Eraserhead]

Definitely not. The Nevada polling is suspect as usual.

[wnwnwn]

Nevada whites vote well to the left of Texas whites.

[TDAS04]

No. Blue Texas isn’t reality yet, and even if Nevada flips red, it’s unlikely that Trump would outperform even Bush’s margins in Nevada (4 & 3 points, in 2000 & 2004, respectively). Plus I’m not even sure if Texas swings left this cycle, even in a Biden reelection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump 48/40 TX YOU GOV
Trump 51/49 NV EMERSON

IF TX WAS REALLY COMPETITIVE THEY WOULD PULL OUT A PPP OUT AND THERE IS NOT ONE IT WILL CONTINUE TO VOTE 8 PTS R even in where Cornyn is vulnerable it will be 8 pts R

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nevada whites vote well to the left of Texas whites.

Not sure if this is true - Clark County whites seem to be like 60R-40D at best for Dems based on precinct results; probably more like 65-35. Overall NV whites are probably like 65-35ish.

TX whites are harder to estimate because there’s so much going on, but these days I could see them voting about 65-35 as well, in large part because of all the liberal whites in Austin and increasingly in parts of Houston and Dallas. You don’t really have liberal pockets of whites in NV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The PVI will have be 7% 2008 version in order to win TX because in 2018 we almost won TX and the PVI was 7 but we won NV in 2020 when the PVI was 4

The polls were wrong in NV when they had Laxalt winning amyways

I don't know what the fascinating thing about TX it's very pro gun and ALLRED doesn't want concealed weapons like Beto he is left wing on guns

Cruz and Abbott are to the center on guns in TX standards and ALLRED doesn't even talk about guns

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is very much like Corker v Harold Ford Jr why do you think Ford lost Corker was to the center on guns According to TN standards

Allred made mistakes he should of came out slinging against Cruz about voting for Neil Gorsuch one of the three most racist judges but he is giving out passes to illegal immigrants

This is what happens always when you are in competetive races you gotta come out hard especially in TX Allred didn't

[cherry mandarin]

Highly unlikely. I don’t see it happening in 2024. As you noted, the gap between these two states in 2020 was 8 points which would require not just a significant R trend in NV but also a large D trend in TX and I simply can’t see the latter happening this year. Keep in mind that TX barely even trended left between 2016 and 2020 when all the demographic conditions and coalition shifts were ripe for Biden to make those gains.

Texas is also a state with low turnout, where Dems seem to have more overall potential with non-voters.

And therein lies their problem, because they barely got the overall statewide margin to budge in 2020 despite heightened enthusiasm levels across the board, not to mention favourable turnout patterns. I don’t expect lightning to strike twice again in that regard this fall.

Both states are quite urban/suburban in nature as well, with most of its population being constrained to its major metro areas.

TX has a larger rural population than most people give it credit for.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Zero chance of that.

That Trump+12 poll is one of the biggest outliers of the year so far.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I just argued with two people that believes those NV polls and Emerson has it 51/49 Trump
 We know what the polls are doing Biden loses if he can't secure NV or AZ

[Mechavada]

Unlikely.

Sure, inflation has hit this state hard (particularly in housing) but for all the talk about Nevada being less educated than Texas people seem to be overlooking another factor: secular vs. religious.

Texas has MILLIONS of evangelical voters.  In Nevada that percentage is much lower and while there are Mormons they are nowhere near the numbers they are in Utah and Idaho.  According to this Wikipedia article 40% say they are unaffiliated (basically atheist/agnostic).  And if that's not enough there's this info we should consider:

https://www.prri.org/research/abortion-views-in-all-50-states-findings-from-prris-2023-american-values-atlas/

According to the map for Abortion legality 76% of Nevadans support "in all or most cases".  This makes Nevada (according to this data at least) TIED with Vermont for Second Place and right after Massachusetts.  By contrast only 56% of Texans support Abortion Legality in "all or most cases".  When we look at the map for Abortion Illegality it looks even more jarring: Only TWO PERCENT of Nevada voters oppose abortion in all cases while 11% of Texans oppose abortion in all cases.  Granted, "all or most cases" is pretty broad and "all" is absolute but this does show an area that often gets overlooked in analyzing these two states in terms of electability.

Nevada could vote to the right of Texas, but it'd require several things to happen.  Namely, the GOP adopting a much more secular aesthetic to appeal to voters with "soft libertarian" views.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Texas is also a state with low turnout, where Dems seem to have more overall potential with non-voters.

And therein lies their problem, because they barely got the overall statewide margin to budge in 2020 despite heightened enthusiasm levels across the board, not to mention favourable turnout patterns. I don’t expect lightning to strike twice again in that regard this fall.

I have a hard time seeing how anyone can seriously argue this point - Texas turnout patterns in 2020 were clearly favorable to Republicans as has been the case for quite a while. The only high turnout Democrat area of Texas is Austin and if you equalize turnout across precincts, you actually get a narrow Biden win. Biden also won precincts worth more people than Trump in TX by a couple million.

[cherry mandarin]

I have a hard time seeing how anyone can seriously argue this point - Texas turnout patterns in 2020 were clearly favorable to Republicans as has been the case for quite a while. The only high turnout Democrat area of Texas is Austin and if you equalize turnout across precincts, you actually get a narrow Biden win. Biden also won precincts worth more people than Trump in TX by a couple million.

I’m saying that the TX turnout patterns were more favourable to the Dems in 2020 than it had historically been in the past, and crucially more favourable than I expect them to be in 2024. By the way, which method are you using to calculate the size of the voter pool in each precinct specifically?

[Skill and Chance]

Not this time.  I don't think it's nuts this will eventually happen, but if it does, it will be because NV goes the way of WV and becomes like 60%R in a typical election.