Will the GOP win any of the Vegas-area House seats?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will GOP House candidates win any of the Vegas-area congressional districts?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Doubtful. If they couldn't win them in 2022, I doubt it this year.

[SnowLabrador]

Doubtful. If they couldn't win them in 2022, I doubt it this year.

But the national environment has greatly worsened for Democrats since the 2022 midterms.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No they won't that's why it's an R bias and always will be in NV and AZ

[UncleSam]

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

[Schiff for Senate]

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Doubtful. If they couldn't win them in 2022, I doubt it this year.

But the national environment has greatly worsened for Democrats since the 2022 midterms.

It's worsened for Biden. Not necessarily the Democrats. The generic ballot polls as of now are usually tied or giving Democrats a slight edge. 2022 House popular vote was R+2.

Not only that, but there's hindsight from the 2022 midterms in Nevada.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Doubtful. If they couldn't win them in 2022, I doubt it this year.

But the national environment has greatly worsened for Democrats since the 2022 midterms.

It's worsened for Biden. Not necessarily the Democrats. The generic ballot polls as of now are usually tied or giving Democrats a slight edge. 2022 House popular vote was R+2.

Not only that, but there's hindsight from the 2022 midterms in Nevada.

Yeah - if Biden really does collapse enough to lose any of the Vegas seats, then I think the Dem incumbents outrun him a couple % because downballot realignment always tends to lag and polls generally suggests Congressional Dems outrunning Biden overall. So even if Biden loses NV-04 by 1% I still think Horsford would be favored to hold on - if Biden is losing NV-04 by like 5% then Horsford would be in trouble and Biden would be losing statewide in Nevada by close to double-digits. I just am not seeing that type of Dem collapse in the Vegas area right now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

Sort of gives me vibes of IA map last decade. IA map last decade wasn't a gerrymander (it was court drawn iirc) but Obama won 3/4 congressional districts but all flipped to Trump in 2016 and Dems struggled to hold them throughout the decade.

[Spectator]

Don’t think Nevada was a Dem dummymander. The three Dem seats are based in an urban area and unless that urban area as a whole starts voting Republican regularly, then they’re not in huge danger. There’s not really been any indication that Clark County will start voting Republican. The last Republican to win it in a partisan race was in 2014. Just for reference.

[Minnesota Mike]

I don't think so.

As for if the Nevada map is a dummymander the answer is of course not. Sure Democrats could have drawn a 2-2 map with a couple of safer Dem seats but looking at the big picture why would they? If Democrats can't win 2 seats in Nevada with the current map they are not winning House anyway. Sometimes you have to take a little risk.

[YE]

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

By that point the House is long gone most likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are lying didn't they have Laxalt plus 5 per Trafalgar, users once again believe those silly NV polls, they are always gonna have an R biss

[Schiff for Senate]

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

Sort of gives me vibes of IA map last decade. IA map last decade wasn't a gerrymander (it was court drawn iirc) but Obama won 3/4 congressional districts but all flipped to Trump in 2016 and Dems struggled to hold them throughout the decade.

Yeah, exactly. It was visually pleasing and very compact, and of course it wasn't drawn with any intent to gerrymander, but by the end of the decade the effect it really had was to crack up all the sources of Democratic strength in eastern Iowa...it's actually very easy to draw a comfortably Democratic seat if you keep the Quad Cities area united, and it's not un-compact, either. Likewise, although the map looked nice, it cracked up the Des Moines area by drowning Polk/Dallas with heavily red rurals and putting Story County in an even redder seat.

[Sol]

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

Sort of gives me vibes of IA map last decade. IA map last decade wasn't a gerrymander (it was court drawn iirc) but Obama won 3/4 congressional districts but all flipped to Trump in 2016 and Dems struggled to hold them throughout the decade.

Yeah, exactly. It was visually pleasing and very compact, and of course it wasn't drawn with any intent to gerrymander, but by the end of the decade the effect it really had was to crack up all the sources of Democratic strength in eastern Iowa...it's actually very easy to draw a comfortably Democratic seat if you keep the Quad Cities area united, and it's not un-compact, either. Likewise, although the map looked nice, it cracked up the Des Moines area by drowning Polk/Dallas with heavily red rurals and putting Story County in an even redder seat.

Iowa City and Cedar Rapids aren't considered part of the Quad Cities.

[Spectator]

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

By that point the House is long gone most likely.

Yea, this is why it’s kind of dumb comparing it to Iowa. If Democrats are losing Clark County then they’re already screwed.

[Schiff for Senate]

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

Sort of gives me vibes of IA map last decade. IA map last decade wasn't a gerrymander (it was court drawn iirc) but Obama won 3/4 congressional districts but all flipped to Trump in 2016 and Dems struggled to hold them throughout the decade.

Yeah, exactly. It was visually pleasing and very compact, and of course it wasn't drawn with any intent to gerrymander, but by the end of the decade the effect it really had was to crack up all the sources of Democratic strength in eastern Iowa...it's actually very easy to draw a comfortably Democratic seat if you keep the Quad Cities area united, and it's not un-compact, either. Likewise, although the map looked nice, it cracked up the Des Moines area by drowning Polk/Dallas with heavily red rurals and putting Story County in an even redder seat.

Iowa City and Cedar Rapids aren't considered part of the Quad Cities.

Mb about the terminology, but I was just using "Quad Cities" to refer to those mid sized cities in eastern IA (Davenport / IA City / DBQ / Cedar Rapids).

[Minnesota Mike]

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

Sort of gives me vibes of IA map last decade. IA map last decade wasn't a gerrymander (it was court drawn iirc) but Obama won 3/4 congressional districts but all flipped to Trump in 2016 and Dems struggled to hold them throughout the decade.

Yeah, exactly. It was visually pleasing and very compact, and of course it wasn't drawn with any intent to gerrymander, but by the end of the decade the effect it really had was to crack up all the sources of Democratic strength in eastern Iowa...it's actually very easy to draw a comfortably Democratic seat if you keep the Quad Cities area united, and it's not un-compact, either. Likewise, although the map looked nice, it cracked up the Des Moines area by drowning Polk/Dallas with heavily red rurals and putting Story County in an even redder seat.

Iowa City and Cedar Rapids aren't considered part of the Quad Cities.

Mb about the terminology, but I was just using "Quad Cities" to refer to those mid sized cities in eastern IA (Davenport / IA City / DBQ / Cedar Rapids).

Just for clarity's sake the Quad Cities are Davenport (IA), Bettendorf (IA), Moline (IL), and Rock Island (IL).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quad_Cities

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Maybe NV 1 but probably none

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1793328640366608708?t=agd9C5ERt5ZgUR7G...

https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1793319095531933720?t=agd9C5ERt5ZgUR7G81D07...

The GOP themselves don't see any viable prospects. So maybe people should adjust their priors.

[Vern]

I wonder if it’s left out because maybe the market in LV is too costly for them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if it’s left out because maybe the market in LV is too costly for them.

The Las Vegas media market doesn’t seem like it should be very expensive - it’s basically just Clark and 2 rural counties in NV-04. If these seats were seen as cooperative then the entire media market would be within a competitive Congressional District and these days 3 congressional districts is quite a bit.

I think maybe people underestimate how D these seats have historically been to begin with. In 2020 they were all pretty close to Biden + 10, and since all 3 have D incumbents who aren’t particularly hated in a normal election you’d expect Ds to outrun Biden by a little bit. It would probably take ~10-12 point shift right out of Clark before these seats flip, which is a pretty tall order, especially since we haven’t seen Rs outright win Clark County in quite a while.

It’s not like those Cuban Miami seats that voted for Clinton by like 20% because Clinton’s 2016 performance was always the exception and not the rule - heck Republicans won both those seats in 2016 despite Clinton carrying them by ~20%