Which Biden 2020 state is easier for Trump to win?
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  Which Biden 2020 state is easier for Trump to win?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Well?
#1
Nevada		  
#2
Georgia		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 39

Author Topic: Which Biden 2020 state is easier for Trump to win?  (Read 319 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« on: May 16, 2024, 06:09:26 AM »
I presently think Nevada would go Trump first. You could make reasonable arguments to the contrary though.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2024, 08:43:26 AM »
I would say GA.

Not that I believe the margins in most current polls, but NV has repeatedly been a disappointment for the GOP. By comparison, they did ok in GA in 2022.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2024, 08:47:49 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 16, 2024, 08:43:26 AM
I would say GA.

Not that I believe the margins in most current polls, but NV has repeatedly been a disappointment for the GOP. By comparison, they did ok in GA in 2022.

The GA GOP slate was decidedly anti MAGA, and they did well by running up the score in suburbs that have shifted left ever since Trump came on the scene.
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Randy Marsh
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2024, 11:59:55 AM »
Polling suggests NV but given GA votes for R historically and NV is the opposite I’d go with GA here
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2024, 03:47:58 PM »
Georgia.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2024, 09:03:09 PM »
Nevada. Georgia is only going to move left
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2024, 09:18:01 PM »
Georgia. If Biden improves enough with black voters then it shouldn't be that difficult for him to win it considering that it's moving left.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2024, 11:54:26 PM »
NV.

Quote from: Randy Marsh on May 16, 2024, 11:59:55 AM
Polling suggests NV but given GA votes for R historically and NV is the opposite I’d go with GA here
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 16, 2024, 08:43:26 AM
Not that I believe the margins in most current polls, but NV has repeatedly been a disappointment for the GOP. By comparison, they did ok in GA in 2022.

The past is past; if we were simply extrapolating based off previous results rather than the considering present data as well, then this wouldn't even be a question.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2024, 07:55:45 AM »
In Nevada its very obvious where Trump's new voters would be coming from. It's hard to see that for Georgia.

Not to mention that if trends continue, Georgia will be moving further left while Nevada moves further right.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2024, 09:01:02 AM »
Quote from: Shaula🏳️‍⚧️ on May 17, 2024, 07:55:45 AM
In Nevada its very obvious where Trump's new voters would be coming from. It's hard to see that for Georgia.

Not to mention that if trends continue, Georgia will be moving further left while Nevada moves further right.

That's why I'm not writing Georgia off yet. I think it'll just take more time for Biden to soften the ground
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2024, 09:08:43 AM »
Nevada's large union forces will be a factor this cycle in a way they weren't necessarily in Nov. 2020 when COVID lockdowns were deeply hurting Vegas. Plus Nevada has a senate seat up and Georgia doesn't, which I think is a major factor for investment.

I'd say GA is the most likely Biden state to flip to Trump.
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