Would it be possible for Biden to garner 400+ electoral votes?
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  Would it be possible for Biden to garner 400+ electoral votes?
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Author Topic: Would it be possible for Biden to garner 400+ electoral votes?  (Read 498 times)
Obama24
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« on: May 15, 2024, 10:13:57 PM »

A lot of these polls are very biased in favor of Trump. Is it possible Biden outdoes 1988 or comes close to 1984?
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2024, 10:15:22 PM »

It is not. Max he can get is 319, same with trump, his max is 312
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iceman
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2024, 10:18:41 PM »

A lot of these polls are very biased in favor of Trump. Is it possible Biden outdoes 1988 or comes close to 1984?

If Obama can't get to 400 in 2008, how much more Biden with underwater approval ratings?

He'd be lucky if he even wins reelection at this point.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
johnzaharoff
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2024, 10:20:44 PM »

No it is not possible for either candidate to hit 400 votes.

Bien's max is 322 (2020 +NC+AK

Trumps max is probably 347
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iceman
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2024, 10:24:58 PM »

No it is not possible for either candidate to hit 400 votes.

Bien's max is 322 (2020 +NC+AK

Trumps max is probably 347


Trump's max I guess is only 323... Trump 2016 states plus Nevada and Minnesota. I don't see him getting any other Clinton 2016 states aside from those 2.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2024, 10:34:52 PM »

No it is not possible for either candidate to hit 400 votes.

Bien's max is 322 (2020 +NC+AK

Trumps max is probably 347


Trump's max I guess is only 323... Trump 2016 states plus Nevada and Minnesota. I don't see him getting any other Clinton 2016 states aside from those 2.

Trump came extremely close to NH in 2016.
ME and VA were within 5 points in 2016 Only really possible if the bottom falls out of the Biden campaign.

I added NM as well which would only be possible with a massive his hispanic shift, but to be honest I went back and forth on including it

I agree with you that MN and NV are the easiest Clinton states.
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2024, 10:38:22 PM »

Sure, although I'll put that down as a rather theoretic possibility. It is a really underrated fact that the road for this goes 2020 plus NC-FL-TX-OH.
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iceman
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2024, 10:43:13 PM »

No it is not possible for either candidate to hit 400 votes.

Bien's max is 322 (2020 +NC+AK

Trumps max is probably 347


Trump's max I guess is only 323... Trump 2016 states plus Nevada and Minnesota. I don't see him getting any other Clinton 2016 states aside from those 2.

Trump came extremely close to NH in 2016.
ME and VA were within 5 points in 2016 Only really possible if the bottom falls out of the Biden campaign.

I added NM as well which would only be possible with a massive his hispanic shift, but to be honest I went back and forth on including it

I agree with you that MN and NV are the easiest Clinton states.

I think Trump would do poorly again in New England this year as with 2020. 2016 was a fluke for New England.
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DS0816
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2024, 10:47:00 PM »

A lot of these polls are very biased in favor of Trump.

This is incorrect.


Quote
Is it possible [a 2024 Joe] Biden outdoes 1988 or comes close to 1984?

No.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2024, 10:47:16 PM »

No.

Not even if RFK Jr. spoils the election significantly for Trump.
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cherry mandarin
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2024, 12:06:05 AM »

No.
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Rubensim
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2024, 12:52:18 AM »

No like no why did you even think this? assuming best case scenario for joe he get like 300 electoral votes and that it and even that seem a bit magical now
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2024, 12:54:51 AM »
« Edited: May 16, 2024, 12:59:26 AM by wnwnwn »

Maybe if Trump selects Tulsi as VP and LP run an appelaing paleolibertarian ticket that spoils the election.

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Compuzled_One
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« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2024, 01:01:38 AM »

If he runs some Truman level campaign, with Trump being a dumbass to, he can cause a 10% swing and win 413 EVs or so.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2024, 01:04:37 AM »

No he won't the most he will get is 319
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MarkD
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« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2024, 04:52:57 AM »

Anything is possy-bull.
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TML
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« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2024, 05:02:59 AM »

If we were to flip all 2020 states/districts that Trump won by single digits to Biden, the result would be Biden 413 - Trump 125.

However, I think this result would require an NPV margin comparable to that of 1996.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2024, 06:05:34 AM »

A lot of these polls are very biased in favor of Trump. Is it possible Biden outdoes 1988 or comes close to 1984?
Is this trolling? Not even if Trump is somehow put in jail for selling nuclear secrets to Putin would this be possible.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2024, 09:16:20 AM »

Nah, not happening in the near future and certainly not in 2024. Biden's ceiling is 319 EVs, ergo all 2020 states plus NC. Trump's ceiling is 312 EVs, 2016 and NV on top (with MN and NH as longshots).

Tbh, I don't see the 400 EV mark cracked any time soon by either side. Even if the Dem nominee in 2028 were to win a semi-landslide following another term of Trump, the maximum is well below. For example, all 2020 Biden states, NC and TX just adds up to 359. We can even add FL on top and we're just getting to 389, so it would require at least one of OH, IA or SC to flip in addition (AK isn't enough either).

The only shot at 400 EVs would be the votes of one side about equally split through a formidable 3rd party candidate. Ergo, a 1912 redux. Even Bill Clinton couldn't get above 380 in the 1990s.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #19 on: May 16, 2024, 09:35:10 AM »

No the Oil industry has bought out Trump that's why oil states like TX and AK are Safe R .
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2024, 09:40:41 AM »

Not under any reasonable set of circumstances.  Of course if something truly crazy happens, e.g. Trump gets convicted, sentenced to prison, and flees the country, then it's theoretically possible.  (Note: that's just a hypothetical example, not something I expect to happen!)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2024, 10:04:20 AM »

It's a 270 to 319 map, this map would only be attained in some future Eday where we know Trump is convicted not just indicted, indictments are meaningless as we see in polls
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20RP12
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« Reply #22 on: May 16, 2024, 10:09:26 AM »

This would have to be the map



I don't think this map is anywhere near the realm of possibility, even if Trump is convicted or picks a sh*tty VP or whatever. It would take some kind of truly absurd development, like Trump pledging to disband the military and make union membership illegal or something.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #23 on: May 16, 2024, 10:32:12 AM »

This would have to be the map



I don't think this map is anywhere near the realm of possibility, even if Trump is convicted or picks a sh*tty VP or whatever. It would take some kind of truly absurd development, like Trump pledging to disband the military and make union membership illegal or something.


Last yr when Biden was leading by 7 this was the exact map but then the Crts started delaying the Trials and we get a 270 map


26 we don't have to worry about Trump being on the ballot and Ds can fair quite well even if Biden is Prez in the Midterms, if Trump is convicted soon after he loses
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dspNY
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« Reply #24 on: May 16, 2024, 10:45:37 AM »

Obama24, stop asking stupid questions, OK
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