Trump margin in Ohio?
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Poll
Question: 6 months out, predict Trump’s margin in Ohio
#1
0.1% - 1%		  
#2
1% - 5%		  
#3
5% - 10%		  
#4
more than 10%		  
#5
he loses Ohio		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 45

Author Topic: Trump margin in Ohio?  (Read 368 times)
iceman
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« on: May 15, 2024, 07:32:26 PM »
6 months out, predict Trump’s margin in Ohio
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2024, 07:41:53 PM »
Trump+9.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2024, 08:15:34 PM »
Trump +13
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2024, 08:46:39 PM »
10 pts Biden isn't contesting it but Brown is being helped by the Abortion Amendment it's still premature the S gone for Ds
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2024, 09:18:08 PM »
Accidentally Misclicked on “lose” lol (two spaces from where I meant to click.) I think he’ll get it by like 9
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2024, 09:45:04 PM »
We have a debate coming up in six weeks.

If Biden wins the election I think he holds the loss to about 8-9%. However, 2022 showed a Democratic collapse in demosaur/red areas the party had abandoned in the South and plains. At the same time, Biden did quite poorly, both in turnout and compared to every other part of the country in old industrial towns/Appalachia. In the event Trump wins the overall election, I can easily see him carrying Ohio by 13-14%.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2024, 09:51:51 PM »
There is an abortion amen on the ballot in OH that's why Brown is doing the unthinkable winning, over Bernie Moreno, it won't be 13 pts this is not a Midterm cycle where R Gov candidate win 20 pt blowout
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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2024, 01:21:33 AM »
Trump by around 10%.  State is trending right but getting closer to maxed out in rural areas while Columbus and Cincinnati metro areas moving left or at least stable so trend in those two probably prevent Trump winning it too much.  Ohio still has a fairly decent size urban population and GOP struggles in large metro areas.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2024, 01:31:27 AM »

Yup, that seems accurate. I would predict 53-44%.
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2024, 01:46:38 AM »
Trump+8

Max Trump+11
Min Trump+3 (Brown effect)

I thinl the GOP has maxed outside of some Romney-Biden suburbs, but there aren't much left trending areas so...
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Dave Hedgehog
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2024, 05:53:29 AM »
It’s difficult to see it delivering a Missouri margin but very feasible to see it going into low double digits given Trump’s strong results in the last elections, Biden’s stubborn unpopularity and so many areas of the state swinging right in 2020 while the nation as a whole moved decisively left. Difficult to see how Brown survives under these circumstances unless Moreno craters spectacularly during the campaign or has a major scandal.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2024, 07:01:27 AM »
Trump +12.
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iceman
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2024, 07:20:39 AM »
Trump +13 something like 53% to Biden 40% third parties 7%

Iowa could be a much more bigger margin something like 55% Trump 36% Biden
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here2view
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« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2024, 07:36:30 AM »
Trump +10, 54-44
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