A common complaint on atlas is how the current state of polling could be at all possible without any other evidence? What if that evidence is the 2022 results? Try comparing the 538 averages with the 2022 adjusted GCB.
Arizona
R +3.4 polling
R +2.2 GCB
Florida
R +9.3 polling
R +16 GCB
Georgia
R +5.9 polling
R +4.6 GCB
Michigan
R +0.6 polling
D +2.3 GCB
Nevada
R +6.8 polling
R +3.4 GCB
North Carolina
R +6.1 polling
R +4.3 GCB
Ohio
R +9.6 polling
R +13 GCB
Pennsylvania
R +1.8 polling
R +0.6 GCB
Texas
R +9.9 polling
R +13 GCB
Wisconsin
R +1.2 polling
R +1.8 GCB
Polling is painting an exact 2022 picture when you take into account pro-GOP polling in Nevada, pro-Dem polling in Ohio, poor GOP turnout in Michigan, and poor Dem turnout in Florida and Texas.
You can always point to uncompetitive races and say that turnout will be different in 2024. It may well be and I’m not predicting a 2022 redux. All I’m saying is that polling is no crazier than what we saw in 2022 and that’s a lot closer to presidential turnout than special elections or vibes.
I think this is correct and that 2022 redux is the current environment. The problem is that most people have convinced themselves 2022 heralded a Democratic victory nationally, wheras it was a victory over expectations in which they lost the House vote by 2%+.
The operative questions for 2024 then is not so much whether the environment will be that different. Instead, it is whether
1.Trump is stronger than "Trumpist" candidates like Blake Masters, Dr. Oz, Mastriano, Herschel Walker, Tudor Dixon, etc
2. Biden is weaker than Democratic incumbents/candidates like Warnock, Whitmer, CCM, Fetterman, Shapiro, Kelly....
Right now there are indications that while Trump is not strong, he lacks what we might term, the unique flaws of many of the Trumpist candidates.
At the same time, Biden is consistently running behind down-ballot Democrats in virtually all polling, a situation backed up by the overwhelming majority of other evidence.
If we look at 2022, I think it is pretty clear the relative gaps between Trump/Walker/Masters and Biden/Warnock/Kelly probably mean Trump wins AZ/GA. MI/PA were so lopsided it is hard to tell how much the candidates mattered and how much they have genuinely shifted.
WI/NV tossups
ME2 went for LePage while losing statewide by more than Trump will, NE2 almost saw Bacon lose so both are probably safe respectively.
So things come down to WI unless we believe polling in Michigan which is the one place where I struggle to place much faith in it.
