Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump announced he challenged Biden to a 3rd debate on Fox News on October 2, we have yet to receive confirmation of this one. If confirmed though, that will mean Trump and Biden have successfully subverted the Commission on Presidential Debates, which definitely marks a new era in the period of presidential debates.

Trump is honestly dumb for accepting these without that being accepted. Unless of course his internals aren’t as good as the polls say and he wants an early debate as well because if he was really ahead in every swing state then why would he accept such an early debate .

Why do you mean by the bolded? What is "that"?

Trump's proposal for a third debate on Fox.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/awprokop/status/1790796893359948139

[Redban]

CNN gives Kennedy a chance!

https://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2024/05/15/cnn-to-host-2024-election-presidential-debate-between-president-joe-biden-and-former-president-donald-j-trump-on-june-27/

To qualify for participation, candidates must fulfill the requirements outlined in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States; file a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission; a candidate’s name must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline; agree to accept the rules and format of the debate; and receive at least 15% in four separate national polls of registered or likely voters that meet CNN’s standards for reporting.

[Landslide Lyndon]

READY TO DEBATE SLEEPY JOE!!!

https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1790736060370088178

[Open Source Intelligence]

CNN gives Kennedy a chance!

https://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2024/05/15/cnn-to-host-2024-election-presidential-debate-between-president-joe-biden-and-former-president-donald-j-trump-on-june-27/

To qualify for participation, candidates must fulfill the requirements outlined in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States; file a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission; a candidate’s name must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline; agree to accept the rules and format of the debate; and receive at least 15% in four separate national polls of registered or likely voters that meet CNN’s standards for reporting.

CNN's standards for reporting not defined nor do all pollsters mention non-Democrat/non-Republican options or give non-Democrat/non-Republicans equal standing in polling.

[Agafin]

Trump announced he challenged Biden to a 3rd debate on Fox News on October 2, we have yet to receive confirmation of this one. If confirmed though, that will mean Trump and Biden have successfully subverted the Commission on Presidential Debates, which definitely marks a new era in the period of presidential debates.

Trump is honestly dumb for accepting these without that being accepted. Unless of course his internals aren’t as good as the polls say and he wants an early debate as well because if he was really ahead in every swing state then why would he accept such an early debate .

Why do you mean by the bolded? What is "that"?

Trump's proposal for a third debate on Fox.

Oh right I see. Though I feel like Biden has to accept it otherwise Trump would have an easy out to turn down the other ones.

[wnwnwn]

This would help Biden.
The landmine will be Israel, trought.

[Redban]

CNN's standards for reporting not defined nor do all pollsters mention non-Democrat/non-Republican options or give non-Democrat/non-Republicans equal standing in polling.

It is defined:

Qualifying polls include those sponsored by: CNN, ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, Monmouth University, NBC News, the New York Times/Siena College, NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College, Quinnipiac University, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post.
.
.
And FYI - CNN's last poll had Kennedy at 16, ABC and Fox had him at 12, Marquette had him at 14, NBC had him at 13. So he's on the cusp of 15% in 4 different polls

[wbrocks67]

While I agree with the notion that Biden definitely wants to frame/shake up the race as soon as possible given the dynamics, I don't necessarily believe it's entirely b/c he's behind - Trump has been going off about wanting even *MORE* debates - including one every month for the rest of the cycle. That doesn't scream "Trump is so confident!!" to me either

[wbrocks67]

Trump announced he challenged Biden to a 3rd debate on Fox News on October 2, we have yet to receive confirmation of this one. If confirmed though, that will mean Trump and Biden have successfully subverted the Commission on Presidential Debates, which definitely marks a new era in the period of presidential debates.

Trump is honestly dumb for accepting these without that being accepted. Unless of course his internals aren’t as good as the polls say and he wants an early debate as well because if he was really ahead in every swing state then why would he accept such an early debate .

Why do you mean by the bolded? What is "that"?

Trump's proposal for a third debate on Fox.

Oh right I see. Though I feel like Biden has to accept it otherwise Trump would have an easy out to turn down the other ones.

I mean, then that's on Trump then though. Trump will be seen as weak as backing out. Objectively, Biden was really smart with this and Trump played right into his hand. There's no reason to do a Fox debate at this point, or even a 3rd at all now that Trump has agreed to Biden's terms.

Honestly, the biggest winner may be all of us since it appears (need confirmation??) that under Biden's terms, there is no audience in any of these.

[emailking]

Does that mean RFK already has a qualifying poll?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is RFK going to be on enough ballots by the eligibility deadline (whatever it is) to meet the 270 EV threshold?

[Vern]

Will this push Trump to announce his VP sooner?

[Steve from Lambeth]

Bidens demand is Moderators only accepted from CBS NEWS, ABC NEWS, CNN or Telemundo.

That alone would be a NO-GO from me if I were Trump.

How can Trump assume Moderators like Norah O'Donnell, John Dickerson (CBS), Linsey Davis, David Muir (ABC) or Jake Tapper, Dana Bash (CNN) tread him fairly when they trashed him over the last 7 Years.

As it would be for me. I would ask that all debates be televised on PBS with their own news staff. The people deserve to work out for themselves whether the CPB is all that it's cracked up to be.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Biden's requirements:

- Debates would not be handled by Commission on Presidential Debates (which has done the debates since 1988)
- Debates cannot be held in front of live audience
- Debates will be held inside a TV studio with mics that cut off once someone's time is up
- No RFK Jr or third-party candidates

Trump's "acceptance" is from a Truth Social post, and he's been known to talk nonsense on Truth Social. I believe that Trump, in 2020, rejected Biden's suggestion to have mics cut off after a person's alloted time. I would conjecture that Trump probably hasn't heard of all of Biden's requirements for these debates

Biden's demand of no third-party / RFK Jr can draw some bad press towards him, provoking allegations of unfairness. He's giving none of the third-party candidates a chance, no matter how much support they get. Kennedy is probably going to earn ballot access in 50 states

All Trump has to do is say that he actually supports RFK jr. being invited to the debate, just even float that.

It won't happen anyways and he gets some sympathy. That's what I would do if i were him, nothing to lose with it.

It's the requirement he can object where he would have a point and where it would be brought moree to people's attention that Biden is excluding candidates on the debate stage.

Complaining about moderators or mics being cut off is just stupid and makes you look like a loser or a whiner to independents.

He doesn't even have to mention West or Stein. Just suggesting RFK jr. would already do the job and a debate with more people on the stage would actually help Trump i believe, because I believe he's weaker 1vs1 compared to like the 2016 GOP primaries in the past, because Trump thrives better under chaos.

[Redban]

RFK Jr's campaign manager says they expect to meet the debate participation criteria by June 20

https://twitter.com/amaryllisfox/status/1790833679197196539

Their campaign website says they finished petitioning for 187 electoral votes. NY is rumored to be immiment, so that would bump then to 215

[dspNY]

CNN reporting that Trump’s senior campaign is “very upset” about how Biden has “taken control of the debate narrative.” As I suspected, Biden laid a trap for Trump and Trump fell right into it

[President Johnson]

CNN reporting that Trump’s senior campaign is “very upset” about how Biden has “taken control of the debate narrative.” As I suspected, Biden laid a trap for Trump and Trump fell right into it

That's actually evidence that Biden has a competent campaign staff in place. And something that makes more confident about his chances. They're certainly taking this as serious as possible.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Will this push Trump to announce his VP sooner?

I would suspect the opposite. Announcing an anointed successor would give the GOP hacks (and even the cultists themselves) an alternative to Donald, should he happen to go on stage in June and explode in a shower of feces (grammatically, morally, or literally - all seem at least plausible).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If Trump is in prison during one of the scheduled debate dates, can he be wheeled onto the debate stage on a straightjacket gurney like his friend Hannibal Lector?

[2016]

The Irony about ditching the Commisssion on Presidential Debates:

When the RNC Rules Cmte voted to end Participation by Republican Presidential Candidates/Nominees to attend Debates sponsored by the COPD in 2021 then WH Press Sec Jen Psaki blasted Ronna McDaniel and so did former RNC Chairs Michael Steele (who has now become a Democratic Plant on MSNBC) and Marc Racicot + former 2004 GWB Campaign Manager Ken Melman.

Now President Biden is actually doing it it's fine. Pathetic!

So Pres Biden dictated the Terms of the Debate with the Restrictions, then selecting his own favorable Network and basically selecting the Debate Moderators as well.

Tapper & Bash are not going to be impartial Moderators and neither will be David Muir or Linsey Davis, who will likely moderate the ABC Debate.

[Open Source Intelligence]

RFK Jr's campaign manager says they expect to meet the debate participation criteria by June 20

https://twitter.com/amaryllisfox/status/1790833679197196539

Their campaign website says they finished petitioning for 187 electoral votes. NY is rumored to be immiment, so that would bump then to 215

When in doubt, always assume Democrats and Republicans are corrupt.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm

Will ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. make the debate stage? Biden’s proposed criteria certainly seem designed to box him out, despite his significant national polling strength:

One of CNN's debate qualifying standards: "A candidate’s name must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline."

So RFK Jr. can make other plans that day.

I imagine approvals of all independent petitions will slow to a crawl or have state election commission dates scheduled the last week of June/early July.

[emailking]

It's not like the House is going to pick RFK if Trump & Biden are options.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dana Bash and Jake Tapper will moderate the CNN debate.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Is RFK going to be on enough ballots by the eligibility deadline (whatever it is) to meet the 270 EV threshold?

June 20.

Wikipedia says he's at 209 counting all states he's finished petitioning. That does not mean he'll have approved petitions by June 20. For current states with ballot access, he's at 89. (Some of the ones with petitions are big EV states: North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, New York.)

Per Independentpoliticalreport.com the Minnesota Independence-Alliance Party (the remnant of Ross Perot, Jesse Ventura) at their recently held Convention backed talks for them about granting ballot access to an unnamed presidential candidate. There's no reason for me to think that's not RFK Jr. Minnesota has 10 which would get him to 219.

He could get ballot access to Florida easily due to one of the ballot-qualified parties there. That's 30 which gets him to 249.

States like Colorado, Tennessee he could get on the ballot incredibly easy. Issues in some states is you have small defined timeframes to get everything done. Reference Ballot Access News' monthly newsletters where they tell you based on state law when you can start petitioning for the ballot.

Maybe the reason for the early June 27 date is Biden didn't want a CPD-conducted debate for reasons stated but also didn't want RFK Jr. up on stage and under CPD rules that was too much a risk. The "majority of electoral votes' ballot access" is clearly intended for RFK Jr., a person cannot state otherwise. If he was polling something like 6% they'd just state the 15% number in national polls as was always done by the CPD and that's that. It wouldn't surprise me they pushed the date forward is an auxiliary reason of the campaign's ballot access coordinator (yes, the Biden campaign does have one) told them RFK Jr. couldn't get a majority of EVs by that point in time and that's the only excuse they could come up with where they can in public state they are not axeing him. Almost every state has their independent filing deadlines after June 27. There's only 8 that don't. Ditto minor party filing deadlines. But even if he's submitted everything by then, you only have ballot access when the state says you have ballot access and have verified your petition signatures.

Party access out there he could potentially get without having to resort to petitioning/setting up his own party:

Alliance Party (South Carolina)
Independence-Alliance Party (Minnesota)
Natural Law Party, Ecology Party, Coalition with a Purpose Party, Independent Party (all Florida)

States with easy ballot access requirements: Colorado, Tennessee, Mississippi, Vermont