Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[Lief 🗽]

We are so back
https://twitter.com/katierogers/status/1790768956996727272?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yY...

[super6646]

I can't wait to watch how badly these two do! Awesome early summer gift USA, I really appreciate it

[Illiniwek]

June debate? I wonder who came up with that idea...

If you are the Biden campaign, I wonder if you would consider proposing an early presidential debate. The idea being that if you do believe Biden would still trounce trump in a normal debate setting, you get that in front of the nation ASAP and maybe turn the tides by dispelling the notion that Biden is senile and trump is who he always was.

This is about setting the tone for the summer. Sure the average voter may not be "tuned into politics" until September. But it's a Biden vs. Trump debate. It isn't a primary debate. People will tune in. People will be aware of it happening. People will see the clips of how this goes. Even though narratives can change over the course of 6 months, the longer a narrative is in place, the harder it will be to change. If Biden wants to win, he needs to present himself as the only serious option from June through October.

I am nervous. Biden is showing a bit of desperation and acknowledging in a way that he is currently losing. But I think this is the right thing to do.

Deep breaths. Its about to get real.

[xavier110]

Honestly, I am shocked that we are getting debates. Reading between the lines, I glean the following from this news:

1. Team Biden knows they’re losing. They need something to shift the tenor of the race. If Biden was gliding on autopilot to a win, there would be no need to do this. Clearly, Trump on Trial is not enough.

2. Team Trump believes this could finish Biden for good. He’s going to come in hot and try to put Joe on the spot a lot. While Biden was nimble during the SOTU, those were prepared remarks. He had a number of slow moments in 2020, so I’m nervous.

3. Team Biden is attributing the timing of the debates to early voting — but there’s more going on. They need a moment to rehabilitate Biden’s soft support, but it can’t come too close to the election. In fact, they need a relatively disengaged electorate and high turnout dropoff to win, given that they actually poll pretty decently among the bloc of voters who say they’re definitely voting. They do not want a highly engaged electorate and something galvanizing happening in October.

[Redban]

82% of voters say they already know enough about the two candidates. Another 13% say they wouldn't watch. Fewer than 1% think there's a credible chance a debate could influence their vote.

https://twitter.com/ScottWRasmussen/status/1790741258635288698

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I thought the consensus on this board was that Trump would never actually accept a debate this year?
And now that he actually -has- accepted Biden’s debate terms, the instant reaction is that -Biden- must know he’s losing?

This is much more an affirmation of the wacky sense of this board that “All news help Republicans!” than it tells us anything about Biden pr Trump.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Honestly, I am shocked that we are getting debates. Reading between the lines, I glean the following from this news:

1. Team Biden knows they’re losing. They need something to shift the tenor of the race. If Biden was gliding on autopilot to a win, there would be no need to do this.

2. Team Trump believes this could finish Biden for good. There is literally no need for Trump to attend these debates unless he mops Biden. He’s going to come in hot and try to put Joe on the spot a lot.

3. Team Biden is attributing the timing of the debates to early voting — but there’s more going on. They need a moment to rehabilitate Biden’s soft support, but it can’t come too close to the election. In fact, they need a relatively disengaged electorate and high turnout dropoff to win, given that they actually poll pretty decently among the bloc of definite voters. They do not want a highly engaged electorate and something galvanizing happening in October.

I buy your #1, I'm not sure I buy your #2, and having a debate in June because of early voting is clearly not the reason when we're nowhere close to having printed ballots yet, so I agree more is going on.

I think a lot of the current state of the race is down to Democratic strategy forever on this election has been to make it entirely about Trump. Yet there has not been a primary at all this cycle which has served to deaden attention paid to politics, and what they thought would drive the news - Trump's court cases - have not been the news in comparison to Ukraine, Gaza, economy. I also think the multiple court cases are dividing attention to where no one is talking about one particular set of facts and defenders of Trump can focus on issues in what are the weakest cases as they have done (the issues with the prosecution in Atlanta is a needless own goal).

So with Trump out of the spotlight, the focus goes onto the performance of Biden and people are judging Biden's effectiveness. It's kind of ridiculous to me that an incumbent President running for reelection is focusing not on his term of office at all but instead his opponent that was President preceding him, but that seems to be the entire gameplan. I haven't even heard anything regarding Biden's plans the next 4 years. By having a debate now, Biden can shift the focus back onto Trump instead of on himself. Completely ditching the CPD is not a move I expected from Democrats but I knew even if RFK Jr. qualified under the CPD's supposed 15% rule, neither Biden nor Trump would ever allow him on stage. Biden has set debates on his terms and this removes the potential of RFK Jr. being allowed on stage. O'Malley's letter also exposes the CPD for what third party advocates have known forever - it's a tool of the two major parties to serve their interests.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I thought the consensus on this board was that Trump would never actually accept a debate this year?
And now that he actually -has- accepted Biden’s debate terms, the instant reaction is that -Biden- must know he’s losing?

This is much more an affirmation of the wacky sense of this board that “All news help Republicans!” than it tells us anything about Biden pr Trump.

Yes, obviously both candidates think it will help them or they wouldn't do it.  It's actually more interesting to me that Trump accepted quickly than that Biden proposed the debate.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I thought the consensus on this board was that Trump would never actually accept a debate this year?
And now that he actually -has- accepted Biden’s debate terms, the instant reaction is that -Biden- must know he’s losing?

This is much more an affirmation of the wacky sense of this board that “All news help Republicans!” than it tells us anything about Biden pr Trump.

Yes, obviously both candidates think it will help them or they wouldn't do it.  It's actually more interesting to me that Trump accepted quickly than that Biden proposed the debate.

He had to rhetorically. He was challenging Biden to debate him now not expecting Biden to accept. Biden set terms and said debate me. If he backed down, he would look weak.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

A presidential debate in June? Ugh, this election can't be over soon enough.

[heatcharger]

Honestly, I am shocked that we are getting debates. Reading between the lines, I glean the following from this news:

1. Team Biden knows they’re losing. They need something to shift the tenor of the race. If Biden was gliding on autopilot to a win, there would be no need to do this. Clearly, Trump on Trial is not enough.

2. Team Trump believes this could finish Biden for good. He’s going to come in hot and try to put Joe on the spot a lot. While Biden was nimble during the SOTU, those were prepared remarks. He had a number of slow moments in 2020, so I’m nervous.

3. Team Biden is attributing the timing of the debates to early voting — but there’s more going on. They need a moment to rehabilitate Biden’s soft support, but it can’t come too close to the election. In fact, they need a relatively disengaged electorate and high turnout dropoff to win, given that they actually poll pretty decently among the bloc of voters who say they’re definitely voting. They do not want a highly engaged electorate and something galvanizing happening in October.

Good analysis. Team Biden doesn’t want an animated Election Day turnout. Debates closer to November 5th present more risk than potential for him.

[DaleCooper]

I don't think anybody wants to see this. Most people are sick of these people (especially Trump). I anticipate low ratings unless something really weird happens.

[emailking]

Biden, Trump agree to ABC News and CNN debates
Biden and Trump agreed to a prime-time debate at ABC News studios on Sept. 10.

President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, are set to face off in an ABC News presidential debate in September.

Trump and Biden said they have both agreed to a prime-time debate at ABC News studios on Sept. 10.

Before that, they will participate in a CNN debate on June 27 in Atlanta. The debates were scheduled hours after Biden on Wednesday challenged the former president to two debates, which Trump said he was "ready and willing" to do, but pushed for more than two.

"We propose a debate in June, a debate in July, a debate in August, and a debate in September, in addition to the Vice Presidential debate," said Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, with the Trump campaign, said in a memo. "Additional dates will allow voters to have maximum exposure to the records and future visions of each candidate."

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-challenges-trump-2-presidential-debates-make-day/story?id=110258076

[S019]

Trump announced he challenged Biden to a 3rd debate on Fox News on October 2, we have yet to receive confirmation of this one. If confirmed though, that will mean Trump and Biden have successfully subverted the Commission on Presidential Debates, which definitely marks a new era in the period of presidential debates.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump announced he challenged Biden to a 3rd debate on Fox News on October 2, we have yet to receive confirmation of this one. If confirmed though, that will mean Trump and Biden have successfully subverted the Commission on Presidential Debates, which definitely marks a new era in the period of presidential debates.

Trump is honestly dumb for accepting these without that being accepted. Unless of course his internals aren’t as good as the polls say and he wants an early debate as well because if he was really ahead in every swing state then why would he accept such an early debate .

[emailking]

82% of voters say they already know enough about the two candidates. Another 13% say they wouldn't watch. Fewer than 1% think there's a credible chance a debate could influence their vote.

https://twitter.com/ScottWRasmussen/status/1790741258635288698

Fewer than 1% decided 2020.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think this is a mistake by Biden and his campaign.

I'm skeptical that any debate debate should be held with someone like Trump, who regularly encourages political violence and who is grossly unfit for office, because the debate can be seen as legitimizing and normalizing him. Donald will not even officially be the Republican nominee in June, and debating him then feeds his "presumptive nominee" claims of privilege.

The best possible outcomes I can see from this (none of which I think likely):

Trump cannot make the debate, because he's in prison.

Trump has a complete meltdown on stage while Biden performs well, that flips the "too old" narrative decisively against the GOP.

Biden resigns for health reasons as a direct consequence of the debate, upending the race before the convention, hopefully for the positive.

[Illiniwek]

People say that they won't be swayed by the debate, but that just isn't going to be the case.

If Biden is babbling and incoherent and trump appears as sharp as he has ever appeared, then Biden's support will continue to evaporate.

If Biden comes out as sharp as he did during the SOTU and trump is a bumbling fool, then a lot of the independents will come back to Biden.

If Biden can say the right things about Israel/Palestine, while forcing trump to take a position that makes him look like a Bibi-aligned extremist, that could have some effect on the people who are Israel/Palestine single issue voters.

If Biden can find a concise and coherent way to explain why the economy is strong and why trump's claim to a strong economy is bogus, then that could be a huge development.

Yes, people hate this matchup. Yes, most people are firmly entrenched into supporting one candidate or the other. But for some reason there are enough voters in play to swing this election. The push to gain their support needs to happen ASAP.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Biden is under a lot of pressure….

With the first debate just a month away, the debate could very well officially sink Biden. Joe is under so much pressure - he doesn’t only need to perform, but shift the narrative. Biden is doomed.

[Inmate Trump]

Cutting mics and not having a live studio audience are both win-wins.

[CookieDamage]

Whether or not this debate is watched by many doesn't matter. What does matter is that it will generate coverage, soundbites, clips, and articles that will be consumed by magnitudes more people than the debate, and if the coverage is much more negative towards one person that can have an effect.

This is highly out of the ordinary and may pique people's interest because it is so early.

[President Johnson]

Listen, Jack, you're gonna get your a** beat on stage.

[Agafin]

Trump announced he challenged Biden to a 3rd debate on Fox News on October 2, we have yet to receive confirmation of this one. If confirmed though, that will mean Trump and Biden have successfully subverted the Commission on Presidential Debates, which definitely marks a new era in the period of presidential debates.

Trump is honestly dumb for accepting these without that being accepted. Unless of course his internals aren’t as good as the polls say and he wants an early debate as well because if he was really ahead in every swing state then why would he accept such an early debate .

Why do you mean by the bolded? What is "that"?

[Eraserhead]

Oh boy, this could be very sad... if it actually happens. Big if.

The debate will be all about Biden. It'll be about how bad (or good) he looks and sounds.

Everyone knows what they're going to get from Trump. He'll say plenty of outrageous and stupid things and all of it will be laughed off by the media and everyone who doesn't already dislike or hate him as "Trump being Trump".  

[Agafin]

Whether or not this debate is watched by many doesn't matter. What does matter is that it will generate coverage, soundbites, clips, and articles that will be consumed by magnitudes more people than the debate, and if the coverage is much more negative towards one person that can have an effect.

This is highly out of the ordinary and may pique people's interest because it is so early.

I honestly think this debate could be watched by over 50 million people since it is between the two (presumptive) nominees of the general election. This was a really good get from CNN given their falling tv ratings as of late. I wonder if this will have ad breaks like primary debates typically do or if it'll be ad free like the Commision on Presidential Debates normally does them.