Are we asking the wrong question and should instead be asking why isn’t Trump leading by more

[OSR stands with Israel]

All the questions have been about why is Biden trailing but really the question should be why isn’t Trump up by more . Just lol at these factors

1. The attitude in the West as a whole is very anti incumbent at the moment . Sunak and Trudeau are down more than 20 points in the polls currently, Scholz is in third place currently in the polls (behind the AFD!) , Le Pen leads in most hypothetical 2027 runoff polls , and heck even in Australia where labor only took power in May of 2022 are now in a 50/50 race in many polls .

Joe Biden being only down around a point in the RCP averages is actually polling significantly better than almost any other incumbent party in the west right now .

2. Joe Biden’s approvals are in the 30s and he barely won in 2020 . Given this fact , Trump should be winning this election in a walk given that he was only barely defeated in 2020 and this time his opponent is far less popular than he was 4 years ago .

3. Economic dissatisfaction is very high at the moment which is usually bad news for an incumbent

So again the question should be why is this election not at the very least Likely Trump at the moment (and not close to safe).

The answer is because Jan 6th and Trump’s scandals are actually hurting Trump but general dissatisfaction is so high that it may not be enough for Biden

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. As I keep saying, it's absurd for Trump to be leading by more than he already is. And his current leads are already questionable.

Neither candidate is winning a landslide this year, and Trump will not the first Republican to do so since 1988.

[President Johnson]

No. As I keep saying, it's absurd for Trump to be leading by more than he already is. And his current leads are already questionable.

Neither candidate is winning a landslide this year, and Trump will not the first Republican to do so since 1988.

I pretty much agree.

Also, though I'm definitely biased, the question should actually be by how much Biden wins, not whether he wins at all. He's running on an overall solid economy with record employment and no active foreign entanglements while he also presided over a scandal-free administration. There are challenges like the cost of living, but overall Biden had to deal with global instability and worldwide inflation. Trump has offered nothing how he would fix it. And while there's other unfinished business like immigration and the border, Republicans are scaring the hell out of people and pretend like the the US is about to collapse (while they opposed a border security package negotiated by one of the most conservative senators (Lankford)).

Not to mention Biden is running against a guy under indictment with 91 felony charges and who attempted to overthrow the previous election. In a sane world, this should be a landslide.

[HisGrace]

Republicans would be on their way to a majority of the PV and 350ish EV's with just about any candidate besides Trump.

[TechbroMBA]

Trump isn't leading by more because he has sh**tty favorables and is divisive.

[Xing]

Even if we would expect Biden to be doing worse looking just at the fundamentals, there's not much point to asking why Trump isn't winning by more, as the answer is extremely obvious.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Even if we would expect Biden to be doing worse looking just at the fundamentals, there's not much point to asking why Trump isn't winning by more, as the answer is extremely obvious.

It’s a rhetorical question. The point is that Trump should be winning by more but his flaws as a candidate is why he isn’t

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's so wild Trump is leading at all given all of his criminal trials, J6, and his disastrous handling of the pandemic (no, I don't think we'll have another pandemic, but it shows you how he handles crises when the country isn't on autopilot).

The fact people want to put him back into office is mindblowing to me. I don't care how old or feeble looking Biden is.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump constantly shoots himself in the foot. If he was smarter and less disgusting he would be leading by a lot more.

[DaleCooper]

The question I'm fascinated by that few other people seem to be interested in is, "Who the hell are these organizations polling?" This question applies regardless of whether it shows a Trump lead, a Biden, or a tie. I do not know a single person who clicks internet popups, opens spam emails, responds to spam text messages, or answers unknown calls. (I don't even know anyone with landline phone.) Any person who does those things is incredibly unrepresentative of your average American, whether he votes or not.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No. As I keep saying, it's absurd for Trump to be leading by more than he already is. And his current leads are already questionable.

Neither candidate is winning a landslide this year, and Trump will not the first Republican to do so since 1988.

I pretty much agree.

Also, though I'm definitely biased, the question should actually be by how much Biden wins, not whether he wins at all. He's running on an overall solid economy with record employment and no active foreign entanglements while he also presided over a scandal-free administration. There are challenges like the cost of living, but overall Biden had to deal with global instability and worldwide inflation. Trump has offered nothing how he would fix it. And while there's other unfinished business like immigration and the border, Republicans are scaring the hell out of people and pretend like the the US is about to collapse (while they opposed a border security package negotiated by one of the most conservative senators (Lankford)).

Not to mention Biden is running against a guy under indictment with 91 felony charges and who attempted to overthrow the previous election. In a sane world, this should be a landslide.

I mean looking at Germany and seeing how quickly the SPD has fallen in the polls and how even the AFD leads them now , wouldn’t you say that the fundamentals in the west are indeed very anti incumbent right now . Like if this was just going on in the US then maybe you could say something is weird but it’s happening all across the west so at that point it has to be a pattern rather than the exception.

It's so wild Trump is leading at all given all of his criminal trials, J6, and his disastrous handling of the pandemic (no, I don't think we'll have another pandemic, but it shows you how he handles crises when the country isn't on autopilot).

The fact people want to put him back into office is mindblowing to me. I don't care how old or feeble looking Biden is.

It’s why exactly I made this thread . Look at the election from a basic fundamentals point of view first then create your expectations/strategy from there rather than the other way around . If you look at it from that point of view , the question comes why Biden isn’t losing by more and the reason is exactly why you stated .

Trump is being hurt by J6 and his scandals , it’s just not enough to make up how bad the fundamentals are for Biden at the moment .

[ꙮ]

The question I'm fascinated by that few other people seem to be interested in is, "Who the hell are these organizations polling?" This question applies regardless of whether it shows a Trump lead, a Biden, or a tie. I do not know a single person who clicks internet popups, opens spam emails, responds to spam text messages, or answers unknown calls. (I don't even know anyone with landline phone.) Any person who does those things is incredibly unrepresentative of your average American, whether he votes or not.

I got a text message from some group called "Publius Polls" the other day asking me who I was voting for for President. Options were "A: Donald Trump, B: Joe Biden, C: Rob Kennedy, D: Other, E: None". No clue where these polling firms are coming from.

That was the only question. Asked for no demographic info whatsoever, but they did also address me by my real first name. I guess they may be using a voter file somewhere.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Given that the median voter is quite negative on both candidates, I think there's an underrated possibility that turnout craters this year. Most people think the country is on the wrong track (what's new there) and a huge proportion of voters are primarily motivated by negativity. I don't know if there are any polls addressing this issue, but speaking to Trump voters that I know a lot of them compared to 2016/20 don't seem to think he can actually make things any better; they just want to see Biden lose. These factors do not portend well for civic engagement.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OSR thread do you see the natl polls most of the natl polls including NY T has Biden ahead by 4 Trump isn't leading in every swing state

[Obama24]

Trump isn't leading by more because he is Trump.

If Trump were not Trump, and he was "generic sane Republican", I think it'd be pretty clear that Biden would be a one termer. Economy perceived as poor, eroding support with young and non-white voters, unpopular war (Gaza), leader perceived as uncharismatic / not effective?

The only reason this race is even really competitive is because Biden's opponent is probably the most hated guy in America rn.

[DaleCooper]

The question I'm fascinated by that few other people seem to be interested in is, "Who the hell are these organizations polling?" This question applies regardless of whether it shows a Trump lead, a Biden, or a tie. I do not know a single person who clicks internet popups, opens spam emails, responds to spam text messages, or answers unknown calls. (I don't even know anyone with landline phone.) Any person who does those things is incredibly unrepresentative of your average American, whether he votes or not.

I got a text message from some group called "Publius Polls" the other day asking me who I was voting for for President. Options were "A: Donald Trump, B: Joe Biden, C: Rob Kennedy, D: Other, E: None". No clue where these polling firms are coming from.

That was the only question. Asked for no demographic info whatsoever, but they did also address me by my real first name. I guess they may be using a voter file somewhere.

It sounds like a scam.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump isn't leading by more because he's toxic and people already had enough of him 4 years ago, which is why he lost.

If Trump indeed wins, it will be because of Biden being equally unpopular and a high 3rd party vote share throwing the election to him.